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Selections Post Your Picks - 1 race or a card

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Old 09-13-2022, 07:01 PM   #11
Ted Craven
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I agree with both Tim and Jim about conservative SR selection for older horses, and about a limit on how much better than previous ratings to accept (will it duplicate).

However, sometimes it doesn't matter. I also don't think that RDSS must be used with heavy dependence on user-paceline selection, though users are welcomed to see how better they do overall second-guessing. To each their own - let the results keep the score.

My recollection is that Rich Mathie said he rarely made any changes to the line selected by the software.

If one uses the Rx screen as a primary guide, including its display of the 4 Factors VDC CSR PL PP (4-Factor Method) - only ONE of the 4 factors is dependent on a single chosen paceline. And that one: VDC, derived from BLBL+deceleration is assessed by a formula, so it is literally the same as a composite factor. Reasoning behind the line chosen (e.g. Best Perceptor, same distance structure/surface, last 3 or 4) will be as consistent as the reasoning behind the other composite factors - for better or worse. Again, to each their own!

Here is the Rx screen for that race, using both the lines 1 and 3 for the #5 horse (default settings):

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Using the default line 1 for the #5 got the #2 winner in a better position than using the (agreed) more sensible line 3 for the #5. My contention is that the selection/wager decisions can be made after getting the contenders, and the #5 was a contender.

Not diminishing the BL/BL screen at all, or how it produces a V/DC rating for a chosen paceline. But I believe the other factors on the Rx screen serve to add an extra dimension of reality to what the pace-only factor set offers.

One should seek confirmation of a chosen line, when possible. Or go for the long-term efficacy of the 4-factor method, however you wish to adapt it personally.

Congratulations on your hit!

Ted
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Old 09-13-2022, 07:19 PM   #12
Lt1
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Hi Ted. To be fair I do use the program selected line 95% of the time with the noted exceptions above. When Richie and I were working together he didn't change pl because that was what he was asked to do when doing testing for you. He also relied heavily on his 4 number system. In reality it really doesn't have an earth shattering effect overall. In my case it's just something I've become more confident with.
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