11/25/14: Mnr r#1 - Pace and Cap

PeteC · 11-23-2014, 06:24 PM

Here is a race this Tuesday at MNR with some clear earlies to help with pace projection. Thought the matchers might be interested in this one....

Segwin · 11-23-2014, 07:22 PM

to Win.

Number 1 in prime power and seems to tower above the rest. Speed figures just keep getting better & no others can touch a 174 rating as well. The 2 & 4 will battle it out but the 2 has a 164 rating as best and will tank trying to keep up.

to wire

Having said that, with my luck, Grandma Moses to win - lol

chuckg · 11-24-2014, 10:42 AM

2 Wins open, loses fights
4 Most aggressive on the break, won a fight
6 Lost every fight
10 Fastest 1st and 2nd call, won a fight

Today 4 breaks first and forces the lead to 22.5
10 is faster at 22.4

Toss 4 keep 10

Have 2 or 6 won from 2nd by a length at 1st call?
No for both.
Toss 2 and 6

Match 10 vs OTE at 22.4 46.3 59.9 1:14.5

Name: MNR 1 Nov 25.JPG
Views: 339
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Name: MNR 1 Nov 25.JPG
Views: 339
Size: 40.9 KB

Only 8 has faced that pace.
Against 59.9 Str call would be 3rd by 3 today.
Won a race from 3rd by 3, (line 6).

Bet 8 to Win and 10 to W/P because of odds.

Bill Lyster · 11-24-2014, 06:42 PM

4 earlies
The 2. In all but one race it gets the lead, once even breaking from 8th; horse has never won at 6 furlongs, and the 5.5 f decel numbers look to indicate 7+ second half furlongs. Best is 22.3-46.4; never on board with anything faster. Needs easy open lead, cannot get it today.

The 4: when this one breaks in the top three it tries for the lead; fought at 22.3 and failed, needs about 47 half to win and can't get it

The 6: No races at Mnr, is an Indiana bred and has only run in state-bred races. Can go as fast as 22.0-45.4 - 58.3. Indiana looks to be a faster track than Mnr, so its a little hard to gauge true speed. Might be the fastest early and may fight the most if its speed holds. Of all the earlies this one has fought the most and will join the other two duking it out for the lead. Line 2 with no listed internal fractions is the fastest by far. Line 6 is probably good enough to win here too.

The 10: The 4th horse that needs the lead, but needs a 47 ish 2nd call time to win. Never won at 6 furlongs.

4 horses need to lead, perhaps lead by the 6, so lets see who can catch them from off the pace. My pace is 22.0-46.0-59.0

Not the 1, ugh!
Nor the 3,
Nor the 5,
Nor the 7,
The 8 is a presser that has won twice from off the pace. In its last race it lost lengths agains a pace that looks to be slower than today's and its final time is about 115.90 and may not be good enough; did get the lead in 100.4, but that could be as many as 9 lengths back of these (this) leaders

The 9 was trounced soundly by the 8 in its last with no excuse.

The 6 wires field after tough battle.

Good luck tomorrow,

ray lopez · 11-25-2014, 04:20 AM

My contenders are 2-4-6-10(the early horses) and the 9(presser).

My projected pace is 22 -45.4 -59.2 -112.1. The 6 will duke it out
with the 2-4-and the 10 ,but will prevail.The 9 might come in if there's
a breakdown of the earlies...

If I'm betting on 2 horses ,i'll take #6 and #9 to win.

DontSayDont · 11-25-2014, 07:15 AM

1. Router - No speed - Rail - Out
2. 22.3 1C will be chasing the speed not leading - Hasn't done well at 6f. Out.
3. Has closed vs slower paces but will be too far back. Out.
4. This horse compares to the #6. Ran 22.0-45.4 at IND but at MNR his fastest is 22.4-47.0. Out.
5. Too far back early but use for exotics. Out for win.
6. Judging from the #4 horse, this horse will run much slower early. Out.
7. Hasn't run well since changing barns and shipping to MNR. Out.
8. Has shown to be able to sit just off the pace which should be a good way to go today. Contender.
9. Another 'S' horse that will be too far back at the half. Out.
10. He doesn't break as well as some that are inside of him but should be able to take over by 1C. Contender and my PoR horse at 22.1-46.1-59.4.

I would bet the 8 and 10 with odds.

raceman5 · 11-25-2014, 12:47 PM

I will take the 2 wire to wire its all or nothing for this horse. Besides its mountaineer you never know whats going to happen at this dump.

Bob

mowens33 · 11-25-2014, 12:51 PM

Looks like the last race with all this speed:

Speed duel with the following (2, 4, 6, and 10). Out

1, 5, 7 N/F Out

9 is a question mark, poor in Tandem Out

I like the 8 from a press position (best in Tandem), 3 will be my 2nd selection (class drop) closing.

My only concern is that there is a very big speed bias at this track.

Mike

vderdak · 11-25-2014, 06:34 PM

The 8 will will be ote just off the leaders and get up for the win in late stretch that is if the jockey knows how to read a form and sees he runs best this way.

Capcondo · 11-25-2014, 06:46 PM

5 is scratched. No great loss.

Tim

11-23-2014, 07:22 PM	#2
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	to Win. Number 1 in prime power and seems to tower above the rest. Speed figures just keep getting better & no others can touch a 174 rating as well. The 2 & 4 will battle it out but the 2 has a 164 rating as best and will tank trying to keep up. to wire Having said that, with my luck, Grandma Moses to win - lol __________________ Terry Last edited by Segwin; 11-23-2014 at 07:27 PM.

11-24-2014, 10:42 AM	#3
chuckg Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 168	MNR 1 Nov 25 2 Wins open, loses fights 4 Most aggressive on the break, won a fight 6 Lost every fight 10 Fastest 1st and 2nd call, won a fight Today 4 breaks first and forces the lead to 22.5 10 is faster at 22.4 Toss 4 keep 10 Have 2 or 6 won from 2nd by a length at 1st call? No for both. Toss 2 and 6 Match 10 vs OTE at 22.4 46.3 59.9 1:14.5 Only 8 has faced that pace. Against 59.9 Str call would be 3rd by 3 today. Won a race from 3rd by 3, (line 6). Bet 8 to Win and 10 to W/P because of odds.

11-25-2014, 12:47 PM	#7
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,295	mountain I will take the 2 wire to wire its all or nothing for this horse. Besides its mountaineer you never know whats going to happen at this dump. Bob

11-25-2014, 12:51 PM	#8
mowens33 Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA Posts: 1,035	Looks like the last race with all this speed: Speed duel with the following (2, 4, 6, and 10). Out 1, 5, 7 N/F Out 9 is a question mark, poor in Tandem Out I like the 8 from a press position (best in Tandem), 3 will be my 2nd selection (class drop) closing. My only concern is that there is a very big speed bias at this track. Mike Attached Images

11-24-2014, 06:42 PM	#4
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	4 earlies The 2. In all but one race it gets the lead, once even breaking from 8th; horse has never won at 6 furlongs, and the 5.5 f decel numbers look to indicate 7+ second half furlongs. Best is 22.3-46.4; never on board with anything faster. Needs easy open lead, cannot get it today. The 4: when this one breaks in the top three it tries for the lead; fought at 22.3 and failed, needs about 47 half to win and can't get it The 6: No races at Mnr, is an Indiana bred and has only run in state-bred races. Can go as fast as 22.0-45.4 - 58.3. Indiana looks to be a faster track than Mnr, so its a little hard to gauge true speed. Might be the fastest early and may fight the most if its speed holds. Of all the earlies this one has fought the most and will join the other two duking it out for the lead. Line 2 with no listed internal fractions is the fastest by far. Line 6 is probably good enough to win here too. The 10: The 4th horse that needs the lead, but needs a 47 ish 2nd call time to win. Never won at 6 furlongs. 4 horses need to lead, perhaps lead by the 6, so lets see who can catch them from off the pace. My pace is 22.0-46.0-59.0 Not the 1, ugh! Nor the 3, Nor the 5, Nor the 7, The 8 is a presser that has won twice from off the pace. In its last race it lost lengths agains a pace that looks to be slower than today's and its final time is about 115.90 and may not be good enough; did get the lead in 100.4, but that could be as many as 9 lengths back of these (this) leaders The 9 was trounced soundly by the 8 in its last with no excuse. The 6 wires field after tough battle. Good luck tomorrow,

11-25-2014, 04:20 AM	#5
ray lopez Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 846	My contenders are 2-4-6-10(the early horses) and the 9(presser). My projected pace is 22 -45.4 -59.2 -112.1. The 6 will duke it out with the 2-4-and the 10 ,but will prevail.The 9 might come in if there's a breakdown of the earlies... If I'm betting on 2 horses ,i'll take #6 and #9 to win.

11-25-2014, 07:15 AM	#6
DontSayDont Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 106	1. Router - No speed - Rail - Out 2. 22.3 1C will be chasing the speed not leading - Hasn't done well at 6f. Out. 3. Has closed vs slower paces but will be too far back. Out. 4. This horse compares to the #6. Ran 22.0-45.4 at IND but at MNR his fastest is 22.4-47.0. Out. 5. Too far back early but use for exotics. Out for win. 6. Judging from the #4 horse, this horse will run much slower early. Out. 7. Hasn't run well since changing barns and shipping to MNR. Out. 8. Has shown to be able to sit just off the pace which should be a good way to go today. Contender. 9. Another 'S' horse that will be too far back at the half. Out. 10. He doesn't break as well as some that are inside of him but should be able to take over by 1C. Contender and my PoR horse at 22.1-46.1-59.4. I would bet the 8 and 10 with odds.

11-25-2014, 06:34 PM	#9
vderdak Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 130	The 8 will will be ote just off the leaders and get up for the win in late stretch that is if the jockey knows how to read a form and sees he runs best this way.

11-25-2014, 06:46 PM	#10
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	5 is scratched. No great loss. Tim