What do you make of this ?

[Bill V.]

When in a discussion about projecting the pace of race
recently, I thought about all the races I have watched over many years at Parx.

I thought that I had noticed something.
I started keeping track of the pace of race from all the races at Parx.
Right now I have 170 race for 3 + male at the 1 mile distance.

Here is what I have seen. It seems to me that the longer the race goes the
less likely the splits will fall into a range of 1 from the average.

For example at the second call, the average pace of race for 3 + males is
113.4
So I went and sorted the second call pace of race to find how
many times in those 170 race the pace of race was between 113 and 114.
This turned out to happen 74 times in the 170 races

The grid below shows the results of all the splits and final time
using the same measure of within 1 of the average.

According to my chart, The first number ( around the first turn at Parx )
shows an average of 24.5 The range of 24-25 shows the highest percent
of the splits, Yet final time shows the least amount of races within 1 of the average. on 40 of 170

My idea is based on what Doc said. That a 5000 claimer runs the early pace
just as well as a champion. The difference is the 3rd fraction.

Your thoughts ?






Thanks
Bill

"Life is so simple and beautiful when you live in the present moment. what greater gift can you give then presence ? Pure presence is from the heart"

[Appy]

Back in my wheelhouse here Bill! Especially the last part. As I read your post I was thinking to myself how condition would effect the performance numbers. When working with horses I was always amazed how low level claimers could turn breeze times like a stakes horse!

[mikesal57]

Hi Bill..

Have you looked at time of year from those results...?

Summer will produce much faster times than winter does..

Mike

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Hi Bill..

Have you looked at time of year from those results...?

Summer will produce much faster times than winter does..

Mike

Hi Mike

There is a little difference month to month
but again I see the early pace has less variation than the splits as the race goes on

[mikesal57]

thxs Bill...

very consistent over the year and this can help out the matchers that compare dist to dist

Mike

[wannabeapro]

Hi Bill,

My first post.

As noted, there are as many as 10 horses that can post the 1st Fraction time, so it will be consistent. But there are only a few who are contesting the finish, so it will vary.

My question is what is going on in March and September? Suddenly, races are won by strong closers. Both months have slower average early fractions compared to the other months. In March, it may be the thawing of winter messing with the track surface. What about September? You might have a betting angle here if the data holds up year to year.

[Bill V.]

Hello Wannabeapro

Those are interesting points. I have another idea and it goes along what what you mention
My feeling is better horses run better late in the race. That does not mean late horses are better than early horses, It just means that better horse run better 3rd fractions than cheap horses As the year goes on horses are maturing and learning how to win as they move up the ladder. In early spring some of the top turf horses are back in action
after a winter rest, Parx runs its better races in September so maybe the mid level horses move out of the longer distances and down to the mile distance.

Bill

[Lt1]

Hey Bill don't they do some track maintenance during the 1st couple of weeks in Aug.

[Boe777]

Hi Bill,
Getting of the subject, do you know the link that explains all the RDSS screen
columns that are abbreviated like FW, FX, TT.

Alex

[Bill V.]

Hi Tim

Yes traditionally they take a few weeks of in August and redo the track and take a break going up against Monmouth and Delaware.
But this year they have not take any breaks ( besides weather related)

Bill