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05-27-2022, 08:18 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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2022 Belmont Stakes model explained
The way I decipher the model is this way. The first thing I noticed is the [DEC]eleration column. The numbers run from under -4.00 to 0.00, where zero is the highest and a -4 would be the lowest [in this case]. Knowing how these numbers run in other models, these #'s are indicative of winning horses that have lots of STAMINA. The #'s in the %E column means the race favors horses with a LATE running style as evidenced by the horses running positions on the left side of the model. Now here's the tricky part. VELOCITY wise the race sets up for horses that are within striking distance of the lead or PRESSER style horses. Note that the F3 [3rd fraction] is the Lowest of all the FPS fractional calls. At the Mile call all the winners were within 6 lengths of the lead and even closer at the 2nd call [ 1-1/4M]. Birdstone comes to mind because he was always within striking distance of Smarty [ "Pants"] Jones and had the most stamina of all the other horses.
And so when the race file for 6/11 comes out and not until then, I will perform my handicapping magic on this race. I hope by then we will have more horses than 10 join the fray. More horses=more confused bettors=good price on the winner and the exotics. In the Derby I felt the winner was a borderline contender. He came out of the same race as the #9 but whereas the 9 disliked dirt tracks , the 21 showed he could handle dirt tracks, hell he won by 17 lengths at CD last year. He may just be a horse for course but the way he ran elsewhere he seems to take his track with him when on the road, only time will tell. Unfortunately they made him an early 7/2 ml horse, so I'm hoping the public cools on the horse by race time. But I'm strictly a by the numbers guy and so I will wait until all the numbers get crunched and then I will spit out the winner. Omar Last edited by omar; 05-27-2022 at 08:21 PM. |
05-28-2022, 01:43 AM | #2 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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Historically, a winner in this mamouth distance race, has to have %medians BELOW 67.
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05-28-2022, 02:05 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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The program I'm using, Pace Plus e, calculates %E which for me is ok because Value Capper uses %E also. I used to calculate % MED but since these 2 programs don't use it I just deleted the column. All you have to do is plug in the formula and recalculate the column and rename it %MED.
It's good to know I'm not the only person online at 2 AM. Ha, ha. Oh wait, they're at the post somewhere in Australia. |
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