What Game Are You Playing?

[rdiam]

If you think you are betting ON horses, you are a losing horseplayer.

If you think you are trying to pick winners, you are a losing horseplayer.

If you think you are betting AGAINST everyone else in the pool, and you need to have enough of an edge to overcome a 20% plus takeout, you have a CHANCE to be a winning horseplayer.

How do we estimate that we have an edge? Let's start with horizontal wagers (DD, p3, p4, p5, p6):

The ONLY reason to make a bet in a horizontal pool is that the horizontal bet will pay MORE than the equivalent win parlay. Period. If you cannot make that estimate, DONT PLAY horizontal bets.

On a more micro level, you will need to structure your horizontal tickets depending whether you THINK a race will be won by the top 2-3 favorites or NOT. In the former case, you will need to limit your choices to the top 2-3 favorites and nothing else, while in the latter case you will need to TOSS the top 2-3 favorites and GO DEEP on your ticket to catch a price. DO NOT use a ticket with ALL favorites or SAVE on a longshot race with favorites. The skill here is NOT picking the winners, but picking the TYPE of horse (favorite or longshot) that will win a particular race. YOU NEED TO HAVE AN OPINION.

Let's move on to vertical bets (exactas, trifectas, superfectas). Here, you need to avoid betting on combinations that will be part of those "dumb" tickets from players who are too lazy to structure tickets and simply box 3-4 horses or part-wheel chalk with the rest of the field. Part-wheels with combinations that most are NOT using are the solution here.

If a favorite is 3-2 or less, DONT use this horse on top of the next two tote choices, since these are the dumb public exacta box horses. If the favorite is 8-5 or higher, DONT USE this horse on top of the second favorite, and a) in a field of 8 horses or less limit your underneath horses to the third, fourth, and fifth choices, or b) if a field of 9 or more horses, limit your underneath horses to the third through seventh choices. Of course, don't bet exactas unless there are at least 6 runners. Finally, in any exacta combo you are betting, make sure that the win odds on the two horses add up to AT LEAST 6.

Regarding win bets, there are 3 types of bets you can make: a) bet on the favorite, b) bet on the second (and sometimes third) choice (and against the favorite), and c) bet on a "value" horse.

Let's take c first: if you are betting on a value horse, you will need minimum odds equal to at LEAST half the number of runners -- that is, in an 8 horse field, you will require 4-1 or higher. Also, if you are betting on two horses to win per Sartin, you will require at LEAST 3-1 on both; if betting on three horses to win, you will require at LEAST 5-1 on all three.

If you are betting on the favorite, then you will need odds of 1-1 or higher AND you MUST have an opinion that a horse whose odds are 3-1 or below WILL NOT WIN. If you are betting on a horse whose odds are below half the number of runners (i.e., a 3-1 shot in an 8 horse field), then the favorite needs to be 3-2 or lower AND you MUST have an opinion that the favorite WILL NOT WIN.

If you follow the templates above, you will achieve what the quants call "positive expected value", and you will overcome the oppressive takeout in horseracing and actually WIN MONEY. No math required. That is the game you want to play.

Good luck.

Richard

[Tim Y]

each race is unique in this world