Mth 8=6 - Pace and Cap

Lt1 · 08-06-2022, 11:51 AM

Trk fast turf firm
r1 7348 mdn turf
r2 4132
r3 7634 ls2
r4 4215 turf
r5 4362
r6 78109 ls1 turf
r7 4283 mdns
r8 9642 ls3 turf
r9 7942 ls10 3 yr olds
r10 61108 ls4 turf
r11 3265 ls7
good luck
tim

darmar · 08-06-2022, 12:22 PM

Have a great day Obiwan
Luke

Lt1 · 08-06-2022, 12:36 PM

Thanks Skywalker same to you.
OBI

Lt1 · 08-06-2022, 05:14 PM

Todays' recap. 11 races capped
3 #1 winners 3.40,5.00,20.20
1 #2 9,60
1 #3 10.80
4 #4s 4.00,8.60,6.20
3 not top 4 8.00,24.00[LSP R6,8.80
Exotics in top 4
5 dds 11.40,28.00,128.80,101.65 57.604
exs 10.60,22.60,41.00,11.60
4 tris 23.20,24.50,62.20,13.45
0 supers
3 p3s 17.00,273.20,111.40
1 p4 3516.95
0 p5
Long shot recap
4 R6 LSP W[24.00] dd r5-6 pd 104.20,p3 r4-6 pd 61.95
R8 LSP 2ND behind top, ahead of 2nd ex pd 173.20,tri pd 181.50
R10 LSP FIN 4TH behind top 3 super pd 66.18
R 11 LSP 4th no super offered.
Well it was a very nice day at the Jersey shore with LSPS doing well ,a $20.20 #1 winner, 3 triple digit dds, and 1 triple digit ex, a tri digit p3 and a 4 digit p4. I hope some folks tagged along and made some bucks.
Tim

darmar · 08-06-2022, 06:01 PM

Great work today Tim In the last half of the day you were unstoppable
Darryl

Ted Craven · 08-06-2022, 09:26 PM

Good work Tim.

In Race 6, did you use Line 4 to represent the LS #1? If so, why forgive 3 more recent lacklustre races? Agreed it returns in 7 days from SAR.

Re #1 LS status: because of 2nd rank (VDC) and 3rd rank (CSR) with great corollaries?

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Name: MTH0806R6.jpg
Views: 142
Size: 293.7 KB

Anyway, nice call!

Thanks!

Ted

Lt1 · 08-07-2022, 09:16 AM

Thanks Darryl.
Tim

Lt1 · 08-07-2022, 10:13 AM

Hi Ted. This race presents another interesting was to look past numbers and tiers. First off I used line 1 on the 1. This qualified it as a Richies' LSP ie 5th vdc,3rd CSR. As usual I went to the BL/BL screen and found this horse lacking in corollary support. Normally I would put $2 to win and move on. However having already done my original capping using my model ,Scott form factors and Brispps. I knew that all of the contenders has flaws. So I decided to look further and here's what I came up with. Only 2 horses had won at the dist the 1 & the 9. The others had either not run at the dist or had failed. Here's what the group lppked like.
#2 0-3 @MTH & 08 TURF Dist ?? going up in cls after loss %med too early
#3 0=5 dist, large bal,% med too early
#7 0=2 MTH TURF, 0-2 dist 1 pl, up in class after loss % med too early
#8 Dist ?, ist turf race @mth, % med too early, won last up cls
#9 1-6 dist,% med little late, decline in form last race ,no wins last 10
#10 Dist? 02 @Mth 1pl,1sh &turf,%med too early, up cls after loss also showing declining finishes positions last 2 against weaker
#1 1st turf @MTH, 1-4 dist, 9-38 turf most of this bunch, Drops in class, had trb 2 back, raced wide from post 10 last made move bet 1 & 2nd call and lust missed a technica up & back move between 2c and fin by1/2 length , %med at early, large bal.
After reviewing all of the above I down graded 2,,3,9. which left me 7,8 10 as top 3 none of which were that inspiring so I made the choice to use the #1 in the dds in addition to those 3 going with the 2-3-4 in r5 with 1-7-8-10 r6 $24 with the 2 -1 dd returning $104.20 +$80.20.
Tim

Ted Craven · 08-07-2022, 08:51 PM

Thanks for breaking down the elimination process and betting strategy - I appreciate it. I also used line 1 for the #1 but it of course showed worse than line 4 and frankly would not give the horse the excuses to use line 4. Still, as you say, it showed a longshot VDC/CSR pattern with still not so bad corollaries.

I did not have access to its past history at this exact distance. That might have helped me retain it as even a LS contender, though with 2 pretty bad failures at 9f and 9.5f in the last 10 races, I can see why public confidence was not exactly high that this time it would hit at 9f.

Congratulations again.

Ted

Lt1 · 08-08-2022, 10:12 AM

Hi Ted. To be honest this race was not for the feint of heart If I didn't have access to the Bris pps and a model to refer to I wouldn't have been able to do what I did and would have only made a $2 win bet on it. I understand a lot of folks don't have the time to keep models or other records but if they do then I strongly recommend that they do. Short cuts don't work in this game The extra work will pay off in the long run.
Tim

08-06-2022, 09:26 PM	#6
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Good work Tim. In Race 6, did you use Line 4 to represent the LS #1? If so, why forgive 3 more recent lacklustre races? Agreed it returns in 7 days from SAR. Re #1 LS status: because of 2nd rank (VDC) and 3rd rank (CSR) with great corollaries? Anyway, nice call! Thanks! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

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08-06-2022, 11:51 AM	#1
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,117	Mth 8=6 Trk fast turf firm r1 7348 mdn turf r2 4132 r3 7634 ls2 r4 4215 turf r5 4362 r6 78109 ls1 turf r7 4283 mdns r8 9642 ls3 turf r9 7942 ls10 3 yr olds r10 61108 ls4 turf r11 3265 ls7 good luck tim __________________ Trust but verify

08-06-2022, 12:22 PM	#2
darmar Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada Posts: 3,161	Have a great day Obiwan Luke

08-06-2022, 12:36 PM	#3
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,117	Thanks Skywalker same to you. OBI __________________ Trust but verify

08-06-2022, 05:14 PM	#4
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,117	Todays' recap. 11 races capped 3 #1 winners 3.40,5.00,20.20 1 #2 9,60 1 #3 10.80 4 #4s 4.00,8.60,6.20 3 not top 4 8.00,24.00[LSP R6,8.80 Exotics in top 4 5 dds 11.40,28.00,128.80,101.65 57.604 exs 10.60,22.60,41.00,11.60 4 tris 23.20,24.50,62.20,13.45 0 supers 3 p3s 17.00,273.20,111.40 1 p4 3516.95 0 p5 Long shot recap 4 R6 LSP W[24.00] dd r5-6 pd 104.20,p3 r4-6 pd 61.95 R8 LSP 2ND behind top, ahead of 2nd ex pd 173.20,tri pd 181.50 R10 LSP FIN 4TH behind top 3 super pd 66.18 R 11 LSP 4th no super offered. Well it was a very nice day at the Jersey shore with LSPS doing well ,a $20.20 #1 winner, 3 triple digit dds, and 1 triple digit ex, a tri digit p3 and a 4 digit p4. I hope some folks tagged along and made some bucks. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

08-06-2022, 06:01 PM	#5
darmar Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada Posts: 3,161	Great work today Tim In the last half of the day you were unstoppable Darryl

08-07-2022, 09:16 AM	#7
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,117	Thanks Darryl. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

08-07-2022, 10:13 AM	#8
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,117	Hi Ted. This race presents another interesting was to look past numbers and tiers. First off I used line 1 on the 1. This qualified it as a Richies' LSP ie 5th vdc,3rd CSR. As usual I went to the BL/BL screen and found this horse lacking in corollary support. Normally I would put $2 to win and move on. However having already done my original capping using my model ,Scott form factors and Brispps. I knew that all of the contenders has flaws. So I decided to look further and here's what I came up with. Only 2 horses had won at the dist the 1 & the 9. The others had either not run at the dist or had failed. Here's what the group lppked like. #2 0-3 @MTH & 08 TURF Dist ?? going up in cls after loss %med too early #3 0=5 dist, large bal,% med too early #7 0=2 MTH TURF, 0-2 dist 1 pl, up in class after loss % med too early #8 Dist ?, ist turf race @mth, % med too early, won last up cls #9 1-6 dist,% med little late, decline in form last race ,no wins last 10 #10 Dist? 02 @Mth 1pl,1sh &turf,%med too early, up cls after loss also showing declining finishes positions last 2 against weaker #1 1st turf @MTH, 1-4 dist, 9-38 turf most of this bunch, Drops in class, had trb 2 back, raced wide from post 10 last made move bet 1 & 2nd call and lust missed a technica up & back move between 2c and fin by1/2 length , %med at early, large bal. After reviewing all of the above I down graded 2,,3,9. which left me 7,8 10 as top 3 none of which were that inspiring so I made the choice to use the #1 in the dds in addition to those 3 going with the 2-3-4 in r5 with 1-7-8-10 r6 $24 with the 2 -1 dd returning $104.20 +$80.20. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

08-07-2022, 08:51 PM	#9
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Thanks for breaking down the elimination process and betting strategy - I appreciate it. I also used line 1 for the #1 but it of course showed worse than line 4 and frankly would not give the horse the excuses to use line 4. Still, as you say, it showed a longshot VDC/CSR pattern with still not so bad corollaries. I did not have access to its past history at this exact distance. That might have helped me retain it as even a LS contender, though with 2 pretty bad failures at 9f and 9.5f in the last 10 races, I can see why public confidence was not exactly high that this time it would hit at 9f. Congratulations again. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

08-08-2022, 10:12 AM	#10
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,117	Hi Ted. To be honest this race was not for the feint of heart If I didn't have access to the Bris pps and a model to refer to I wouldn't have been able to do what I did and would have only made a $2 win bet on it. I understand a lot of folks don't have the time to keep models or other records but if they do then I strongly recommend that they do. Short cuts don't work in this game The extra work will pay off in the long run. Tim __________________ Trust but verify