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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 06-21-2019, 04:50 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Some reality Stats

The fulcrum pace measures is the fastest 2nd call or "EPR". Measurable races must come from the last line, at the same distance(within1/2furlong) The line must be from today's surface.

The line must be a competitive paceline. By competitive, the fulcrum must be from a line in which the horse was equal to or less than the 5th position at the second call. and finished within equal to or less than 5 beaten lengths.

The fulcrum horse is not foolproof but not many things in racing are.

The fulcrum is, however, a very good way to estimate the POR at the second
call and also who will be close enough to compete in today's race

The concept of the fulcrum is not a handicapping factor to pick winners like BLBL or VDC or RX.

The fulcrum is a way to see how competitive each horse should be relative to the fulcrum POR. Within about 2.5 to 3 beaten lengths

1st or 2nd call

Would you be interested in something I found surprising?

This is from my complete model/profile from the just ended Santa Anita meet.

There were a total of 696 races

I not only exported every race and every day, into my RDSS model
I also added my own interest factors, after exporting I used the result
chart to record the winner position and BL at the 1st and second call.
of the WINNER or the race.

Here is an example
Name:  Calls from Result chart.PNG
Views: 883
Size:  12.1 KB

The second call BL and position actually show a better indication percent of the eventual winner

Here is a little breakdown of the position and BL of all 696 winners.
They were equal to or less than 5th position and equal to or less than 5 beaten lengths.

The winner of 92% percent of all 696 winners was equal
to or less than 5 BL at the second call (EPR)

This is a very good supporting factor when looking for those competitive
finished for your fulcrum.

Name:  within.PNG
Views: 924
Size:  5.8 KB


Good Skill
Bill
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Old 06-21-2019, 11:16 PM   #2
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Bill

Nicely done

Jeff
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Old 06-21-2019, 11:59 PM   #3
Bill V.
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Thanks

Hi Terry (Sergwin)

Thanks for the nice comments It is great to see you back again

Jeff Thanks to you, I hope you are doing well
I will be at the Oceans 11 casino with the gang at the table west (north)

Brooks and his new love of pick 3's will join us
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Old 06-22-2019, 10:42 AM   #4
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Bill

Glad to hear you will be there and Dad too

Jeff
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Old 06-22-2019, 10:56 PM   #5
rmath
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Nice stats Bill.
What percentage of drop would you get if you used 4 beaten lengths at the second call?
Rmath
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Old 06-23-2019, 05:55 AM   #6
Bill V.
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4th Position and 4 BL

Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Nice stats Bill.
What percentage of drop would you get if you used 4 beaten lengths at the second call?
Rmath
Hi Richard

Here are the stats.

The total races are now 715, with one day remaining

I reworked the stats based on 4 or less position and 4 or less BL at both the
1st and 2nd call.

Name:  4 stats.PNG
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Name:  within.PNG
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Size:  5.8 KB
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Old 06-23-2019, 08:21 AM   #7
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Thanks

Bill, thanks again for the update.
88% within 4 lengths is very good.
While I do not know the average number of qualifyrs in each race using 4 or 5 beaten lengths , your research is impressive.
Keep up the good work.
May your health continue to improve.
Am looking forward to meeting up with you and everyone else at Saratoga.

Rmath
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Old 06-23-2019, 12:27 PM   #8
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Good work Bill
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