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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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07-31-2021, 05:16 PM | #21 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Nicely done Bill! How did you zero-in on the #6 in Race 8?
Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
07-31-2021, 05:24 PM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Thank you gents,
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07-31-2021, 10:14 PM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
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Good hit Bill ,congrats, i use line 1 for horse 5, if line 3 will come up 5,1,7,3, Thank you for all reply,will put some race next
raymond |
07-31-2021, 10:23 PM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
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[QUOTE=Mitch44;136533]
#1 L 3 V -24 very fast #3 L 2 V -24 very fast #6 L 1 V 11 normal within range however slow compared to others in here #8 L 3 V -21 very fast This is where a consistent procedure comes in for picking a pace line. Also why your using RDSS. The settings within RDSS will also give you a consistent approach to adjustments. With a recommended setting of -15 & +15 it'll adjust these horses and one should trust the results. Its better than you could do and its applied consistently. Anything under -15 won't be considered and only 50% 0f the -15 will be considered. Mitch i not know how to use this DTV and when to use, and what is the number is best to use,can you show us thank you raymond |
08-01-2021, 08:58 AM | #25 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Hi Ray,
The DTV is accounted for in your setting. I would use the recommended settings of; use 50 % and it should be set on - 15 and + 15 for the range. This setting is pretty much what normal variants fall in for tracks. Outside of these ranges are basically abnormal and their accuracy comes into question. You can see your settings when you first open the program, than click on the configure Tab. There you can see your settings and it should be set on the recommended setting. In the example above with the 1,3,6 & 8, the 1,3, & 8 all have very high minus variants which tells me the track was very fast. Much faster than the normal of 0 within RDSS. Proper settings in the program brings those variants back to normal of -15 & or +15 and only uses half of that. So the 1 & 3 with -24 would only be adjusted 7.5 of the norm of -15, not 24. Variants are mostly effected by the weather, particularity rain, wind and maintenance. All weather tracks are less effected by this and are more stable. In some cases such as yesterday there were several of these and the horses didn't have another usable line. Proper settings helps eliminate all this noise or crazy variants. Bottom line is you'll win more races with the recommended settings. Sartin and his group spent years of testing to come up with the proper settings. There are those that don't believe in adjusting races, particularity Matchers, however Bradshaw did this all the time and made these adjustments in his head. He showed us at a seminar how he did it. Its not hard but time consuming and better left for the RDSS program to handle. Matchers would win many more races if they used the program to assist them. The adjustments and DTV is just one of them. Of the example above of the 1,3,6 & 8, I would choose the 6 as the best horse. Of those 4. Just use the proper settings and let it rip and you'll get more winners. Also know when to stay out of very iffy races where the data or too many questions exists. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 08-01-2021 at 09:01 AM. |
08-01-2021, 01:14 PM | #26 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Quote:
Finally, my four factor analysis had the 4 as 1-2-1-1 and the 6 as 2-1-3-4. The 9 was not top 5 rated in all 4 and the 8 was 5-4-2-2. The 10 did not have all 4 factors in the top 5. Last edited by Bill Lyster; 08-01-2021 at 01:17 PM. |
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08-01-2021, 02:06 PM | #27 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Congrats again Bill for very good work and analysis on some very difficult races.
Mitch44 |
08-01-2021, 02:09 PM | #28 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
Would you say that it would be a good idea to review all f1 values routinely in selecting lines? I would assume that this situation could exist at other tracks and/or distances. |
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08-01-2021, 10:01 PM | #29 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
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Thanks Mitch for the info
raymond |
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