Day 4, Churchill Downs, Sunday May 29, 2022

[Capcondo]

Bill,

Thanks for pointing out the minimum amount required to bet during the contest. I totally missed that.

Thank you for doing the record keeping. I'm sure it wasn't easy. If you get to Phoenix for the fall league this year, let me know. The beers are on me.

Tim

[mattshan]

Hi All,

I have made the decision to donate my share of the contest winnings to RDSS to help pay for some annual operating expenses that occur. I would appreciate if you would send my winnings directly to Ted so he can apply the funds accordingly. Thank you.

Also, I have been thinking about what I learned from this contest. I still tend to play defensively and work hard to try not to lose rather than to truly have a winning mindset. I almost always bet too many races and don’t really give myself a chance to win significantly. One of my learning edges going forward from today will be to bet more dollars on fewer races. Trying to adopt a perspective that if I avoid bad bets then the winners will take care of themselves. Easier said than done but I am going to work on it.
Happy Memorial Day to all!!

[Ted Craven]

Thank you Blake (mattshan) - you are very generous to donate your prize to the operation of PaceandCap.com. You and I have discussed briefly a few options and I will elaborate further shortly, so everyone can know.

I will wait until Bill Lyster finalizes the Contest scoring and posts a revised order of finish, which I expect soon. It does appear that Mitch44 has indeed finished second - congratulations Mitch!

Meanwhile - please do NOT just yet send any Contest Entry fees to me! As soon as things are finalized, I will post here who should send their entry Fee to whom (the 2nd place finisher needs to receive their prize as well).

A sincere thanks to everyone who participated! Thanks once more to our departed friend Bill Varone in whose honour this Contest is a bit of a Memorial. And as always, to Doc Sartin, 'the founder of the feast'.

Happy Memorial Day everyone!

Ted

[Mitch44]

Congrats to Blake for a job well done.

And where would we be without Bill volunteering to track all this? Those that step forward never receive the credit they truly deserve. Keeping track of all this is tougher than playing the horses, I'm happy Bill is better at picking winners. He definitely has his priorities in the right order. Thanks ever so much Bill for all the time you devoted to this, and I wish you greater success with all your selections going forward.

This was an excellent challenge going forward for contests in my future. Once I can analyze some collected data and personal responsibilities allows the time. I take great pride in being able to play any track, distance, surface or type of race which is needed for contests.

My big takeaway is not the number of races played as I played 42 of 44 races posted, but proper money management. Thats the area few give a second thought to. The degree of difficulty isn't the same for every race and situation. Players beware and strengthen your limitations and success will follow.

"The Monkey" thanks everyone for the challenge.

Mitch44

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Capcondo

Bill,

Thanks for pointing out the minimum amount required to bet during the contest. I totally missed that.

Thank you for doing the record keeping. I'm sure it wasn't easy. If you get to Phoenix for the fall league this year, let me know. The beers are on me.

Tim

I will hold you to it Tim. Fall League starts somewhere in the early part of October, unless MLB starts it right after the minor league season, like they did two years ago. Anyway, we are in it for the long haul. We try to stay on the east side of town so we frequent Giants stadium in downtown Scottsdale, Sloan Field in Mesa and Talking Stick. We should be in town the better part of October and most if not all of November.

Hope to see you then.

[Bill Lyster]

I will post final changes when I get back later this am. The final info should be up no later than 11a.m. West Coast time (2pm East).

[cigar]

Just got back from Vacation. Congrats to everyone. Mike that was a good hit Sat, hope to see you at WO.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Bill,
It appears an oversight that you missed adding my winnings for today of $257.60, it's a big change in my final numbers. If need be, I can give you the P3 and DD I hit. I appreciate you checking it out.
Mitch44

Well, what kind of day would it be without a mistake. I found that yur winnings in races 4, 9 and 10 were not recorded.

I have you for a $3DD in race 9 (5-10) that paid $43.40 x 3 = 130.20,
and a $4 DD in races 9/10 that paid 17.90 x 4 = $71.60. Race 4/5/6 .50 P3 paid $ 55.80, winning numbers 1-1-4

Total winnings $257.60

My humble apologies. Revised standings to follow. But we will wait until tomorrow morning in case I missed anything else.

[Bill Lyster]

Congratulations to Mattshan and Mitch44.

[Bill Lyster]

There were 44 races in the contest and one of them was a 3 horse race, so for these purposes, there were 43 races.

Using the four factor method, with the understanding that I had to make a judgment call on a couple of races where there were only 2 horse with all four factors, here is what I found.

The winner was top 4, 33 out of 43 races, or 76.7% of the time.

The exacta came in 22 out of 43 races or 51.2% of the time. A $1 box exacta costing $12 on all 43 races would costs $516 and in this case, it returned $507.30, a slight negative ROI. So for you whales out there, an almost breakeven bet, where you won money on the rebates!!!???