Tdn 7-28

[Lt1]

TRK FAST. Terrible races today with a lot of ugly nags. Here goes nothing.
R1 5263
R2 52E41E 2YR OLD MDN CRAP SHOOT
R3 8351 LS2
R4 7134
R5 2518 LS3
R6 2518 LS7 WEAK MDNS
R7 3254 LS7
R8 4536 LS1 MORE BAD MDNS
GOOD LUCK
TIM

[Lt1]

Todays' recap. 8 races capped.
1 #1 winner 4.20
0 #2s
3 #3s 7.00,7.40,6.40
0 #4s
4 not in top 4 30.60,39.00,16.80[LSP R5],0.20;LSP R7]
Exotics in top 4
0 dds
3 exs 7.00,20.00,19.20
3 tris 6.80,25.70,15.30
0 p3/4/5/6
Longshot recap
R5 LSP WON[16.80 over 2nd ex pd 67.60,p3 r4-6 pd 46.70,p3 r5-7 pd 171.70
R7 LSP WON[9.20]over top,2nd ex pd 24.00,tri pd 38,dd r7-8 pd 37.00,p3 r6-8 pd 131.09,p4 r5-8 pd 427.40,p5 r4-8 pd 4007.00
What started out badly after 3 races turned out well thanks to 2 LSPS winning. As a extra bonus one of the better cappers at RX jumped on my thread and gave out a $9.00 winner at BTP. He then turned around and bet MY LSP R7 over my #1 pick to hit the cold. Just love it when things work out for the good.
Tim
.

[darmar]

Wow TDN sure came alive with payouts today. Thank heavens your LS picks were alive today
Nice work Obiwan. I'm sure some people were keeping tabs on you ( hopefully )
Darryl

[Lt1]

Thanks Darryl. Hopefully some folks are benefitting from our post. I do know they are following elsewhere.
Tim

[Ted Craven]

Tim, Darryl - I sure appreciate your posts!

Tim, re Race 5 and your selections: 2518 LS3 - can I ask why you eliminated the #9, and why you had the #5 2nd ranked?







Thanks in advance!

Ted

[Lt1]

It was a typo Ted. R5 should have read 8291 ls3.
Tim

[Lt1]

Here is what I had for r5. My contenders were
#1 used line 2
#2 used line1
#6 used line 5
#7 used line 4
#8 used line 1
#9 used line 2
LS #3 used line 2
I tossed 6 &7 re both had to large a balance and both had too high a % med to win at TDN.
#1 coming off 6 month l/o weak wo pattern trn 4% off lo dropping in class
#2 ok no defects stepping up in class off claim trn 19%
#8 coming off big win ntl type[projected to get it on segment screen] imp sr & fin pos,%med a concern plus claimed last by weaker trn only 6% with this move.
#9 up in class off loss,turf to dirt[trn 23% move] 1st time @TDN
LSP #3 meets LSP requirement re non contender #1vdc,#2 csr. other then that at 1st glance is 0-9 dist and up off loss large balance[normally a toss but since it's a LSP a check of primary corollaries shows it ranks #1lpr]based on my model winners at this dist are in the top 2 lpr most of the time],#3cpr,@2 hid,#1 fx and on the supplemental side #1PF3,#1 TSf3,#2 TPP #2 Supp LS. RX screen tiered them 8-1-2-9. I moved the 1 from 2 to 4. for reasons stated above. The 3 was the LSP.
Tim

[darmar]

Yes indeed. Asking questions sure can lead to getting
answers rather than wondering how you picked what you
picked. All it takes is a little effort.
Darryl

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Tim for the clarification (typos happen).

All your stats make sense (excluding the Trainer stats which I don't refer to). I'll accept that with your line selection the #3 could be rank 2 CSR instead of rank 5 on mine, in which case I think I could make the case for ranking the #3 even as 4th overall and skipping the #1 (layoff and poor corollaries compared to much better ones for #3).

With the #3 as the Longshot behind 4 other horses - just this once - I'd be interested in how you structured either/both the Exacta and Double wagers. One could burn through a lot of $ including every longshot in the Win position ...

Thank in advance. And thank you for taking the time to respond with your detailed analysis, much appreciated.

Ted

[Lt1]

Hi Ted. Remember Richie qualified a non contender a LSP as long as it ranked in the top 5 of both CSR & VDC so a horse can qualify with a 5-5 in both. First off as I have stated before bankroll does determine what one can and can't do. Fortunately I have a decent bankroll. When it comes to these lsp I always put a $2 win bet on them[I remember Doc saying if a horse bothers you put $2 on it[usually fts] then capped normally. Now to answer your question. The reason I stress looking at the the corollaries. Most lsp don't have enough to justify anything but the $2 flyer. However when they come up like this one and a few others I've shown then I will fool around with the exotics. How I will structure bets[if any] is entirely pay off depended and how much I want to invest in the race.
Tim