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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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01-23-2013, 10:21 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Why NOT Maidens?
In all probability, this will not be a real popular topic, but I'm putting it up here anyway. The idea is for this to be educational, so here it goes.
In general, the Sartin Methodology dismisses maiden races, but should you? I'm aware that most people avoid maidens like the plague. But why? Some of the best plays I find come in maidens races. Like any other type of race, you have to understand the race that you have in front of you. Now I’m not suggesting that you bet a maiden race that is full of first time starters, however, first time starters don’t win that large of a percentage of maiden races, so as long as there is just a couple of them I don’t mind. I can just throw them out. The other thing to take note of is, the number of lifetime races a maiden has. A maiden that continues to run without winning, learns to lose! Many times these types of maidens are the ones that are bet down to favoritism because they show good running lines, having run second and third several times. Also, I’m not a fan of maidens scheduled to run on the turf. In fact, I definitely avoid those races. Actually, I prefer sprint races, but sometimes routes will do just fine. Finally, in general, if you are looking for the best speed ratings and best third fractions, perhaps maidens are the wrong place to look. Looking at 2 consecutive years of maiden races, both maiden special weight and maiden claiming that consisted of more than 22,000 races, the following were my findings: About 52% of maiden races were won by the horse that was running 1st or 2nd at the first call. About 63% of maiden races were won by the horse that was running 1st or 2nd at the second call. Maidens, especially young maidens, haven’t learned how to run yet. Many of them don’t take kindly to rating. They just want to come out of the gate and run as fast and as far as they can. So the statistics bear this out. What you should be looking for is the horse that is the fastest early. Many times this horse establishes a lead and just goes on with it. When it comes to line selection, unless a maiden won and got disqualified, you obviously don’t have winning lines to choose from. Therefore you are left with lines where the horse may have run 2nd or 3rd. You also have to consider lines where the horse was running 1st or 2nd at the first call, even if it fades from there. My line selection procedure in maiden races is no different than any other type of race. I looked at the maiden races from the last couple of days at the tracks I like to follow. There were 10 of them. Three of these races did not produce the winner from among my contenders. Some of the winning races had only 2 contenders. Some of them had short prices such as $6 or $7, but then there were others that make it all worthwhile, just like in any other type of race. The following posts will show the screen shots from the various races. I will also offer some commentary.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-23-2013, 10:26 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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PRX race 3 on 1.20.13
There were only two contenders here, so for those who bet 2 horses per race there really isn't anything to do. Either play or pass based on the odds.
The winner, #3, paid $6.60.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-23-2013, 10:34 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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TP race 2 1.20.13
Here is another race with just 2 contenders. If you must bet 2 horses, your only decision here is to play or pass based on odds. If you are looking for a 1 horse bet, take particular note of the the running lines and "RS" for the 2 contenders, that will point you in the right direction.
Then you can follow all the things I have marked. The winner, #3, paid $7.20.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-23-2013, 10:37 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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TP race 4 1.20.13
My contenders did not produce the winner of this race.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-23-2013, 10:51 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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TP race 6 1.20.13
Here is the race that makes it worthwhile.
I have 5 contenders. Take note of the various markings that lead to the winner. The winner, #6, paid $37.40.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-23-2013, 11:00 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
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Posts: 1,292
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TP race 9th 1.20.13
This is another nice paying winner.
Start by taking note of the running lines and "RS". Then the "TPR" section certainly shows this winner's early domination. Again, on the "segments" screen, the winner's early domination is clear. The winner, #3, paid $11.60.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-23-2013, 11:07 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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LRL race 5 1.21.13
Another nice priced winner.
Looking at the lines, it is easy to find the early horse, not just in the running lines, but in the "RS" designations. Also, two of these contenders are running back for today's claiming price while the third is moving up a couple of classes. The "segments" screen also points out what a clear early advantage the winner had. The winner, #4, paid $13.00.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-23-2013, 11:09 PM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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On the lead in the turn
Good lesson FTL thank you
I think your showing a real stong factor. Your commentary of the horse on the lead in the first two fractions supports the idea of maidens who struggle on the turn and lose all chance to the lead horses Here is Doc's comments on maidens from Pace Makes The Race in the turn time article page 336 "Some horses,especially maidens, tend to loaf on the turn. This comes from fear of the turn based on inexperience and the inability to change leads. (stepping off the proper rear foot) Maidens who can run superior turn times are frequent winners next time out" |
01-23-2013, 11:10 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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LRL race 9 1.21.13
My contenders did not produce the winner of this race.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-23-2013, 11:23 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Prx 1.21.13 1.21.13
Here is another race with just 2 contenders. Again, two horse players have one choice, play or pass.
Notice that these two horses are close on "RS" with one horse being "P5" and the other "P6". There is a possibility that the difference in times and rankings are a result of one horse being rated on an 8.3f race, while the other horse is being rated on a 9.0f race. The winner, #2, paid $7.20.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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