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10-17-2019, 04:31 PM | #11 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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True
That may be but the more legs in the picks the better chance we can outsmart the crowd in one of the legs
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10-26-2019, 07:07 PM | #12 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hate to say i told you so
Quote:
Maxi was a good single, With a nice spread in race 7 the 11 pays a decent DD |
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10-26-2019, 07:22 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,140
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Why is everyone so surprised that the hi weights win a majority of these races. They are supposed to because they are the ones that have accomplished the most on the track of the horses in the field. This was of the 1st things I learn when I was being taught to handicap way back in 1980 at Aqu. Hcp races were common place back then and the hi weight angle wasn't a military secret.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
10-26-2019, 07:56 PM | #14 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Waste
Hi Tim
That certainly is a good way to look at FTL,s guideline of focusing on the 3 top weights in handicap races, However on the other side of the coin , I lived trough about 20 of my 22 year Sartin learning journey wasting money betting against the 3 heavyweights, or worse "hiding" them because as we now know the probability of them winning is too high. Most if not all F T L guidelines are really just good solid handicapping lessons , They are here at pace and cap to jettison those with less than great handicapping ability to winning more consistently or betting and passing races more consistently. |
10-26-2019, 08:44 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,140
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Very true Bill. Just because they are the high weight doesn't mean they can't get beat. They could be running at the wrong dist or surface or maybe going off form etc. But like Tom Brohamer like to point out this is a pct game and one should ask them self which side of the pcts do you want to be on.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
10-27-2019, 08:43 AM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I always say that money management is the most ignored element to success in this game. Max Sec is a champion of his time and will only get better.
Your bet Bill was an excellent one and a bet I make frequently in that when a horse figures and the public bets it down I than look to a DD, P3 or Ex. for profit. One must always ask the question, how can I make money out of this race? I'm still traveling and didn't play this as my time is tied up but that was a very nice DD , congrats Bill for a very smart bet. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 10-27-2019 at 08:47 AM. |
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