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Howard Sartin/Jim Bradshaw Memorial “ROAD TO THE ROSES” Contest The annual Contest honoring Doc and the HAT ** $1000 CASH prizes, RDSS Data prizes **

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Old 04-01-2012, 06:06 PM   #21
pktruckdriver
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Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Available to Wager today: $147

FG P 10 (1A-10-12) Mandatory Race (LA Derby)
$25 WP 12 = $50
$49Win 10 = $51
$8 Exacta Box 1A-10-12 = $48

Total = $147

Total Wagers = $164



You are the Man, Congrats on a tremndous hit

$$$ 5,714.70
patrick

Last edited by pktruckdriver; 04-01-2012 at 06:14 PM.
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Old 04-01-2012, 06:16 PM   #22
Bill V.
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Lead

WOW

I think you must have moved up a bit in the standings
LOL




Nice one for sure

Bill
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Old 04-01-2012, 08:54 PM   #23
Ted Craven
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Thanks guys!

This was today's mandatory Derby prep Stakes race in the RDSS Sartin/Bradshaw Memorial 'Road to the Roses' Contest at PaceAdvantage - the Louisiana Derby.

I'm a little surprised more RDSS/Methodology/Matchup users did not hit it. The rationale for betting the #12 Hero of Order was pretty simple: the 'Risen Star' Tandem with 6 other horses at Fairgrounds Feb 25. Except for the Tandem winner, who ran 4th in yesterday's Florida Derby, the 3 other principal actors return today. Simply put, at 99-1, I'm betting the Tandem will reverse, as it sometimes does. The #12's effort in that race was an excellent effort.

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Young 3 year olds of this calibre will either top out, decline or improve. The #12 came back swimmingly in its last race, fit as a fiddle. Will it still improve?

This is pretty much the Bottom Line/Betting Line readout resulting from the RDSS 2.0 automatic paceline selection (Best of Last 3 Comparable).

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If I believe the Tandem has a chance to reverse - that the 12 can improve against both the 1A and the 10 from that Feb 25 Tandem, then the rankings of the 1A are a proxy for the 12 - give it the same respect. I was shocked to see the 12 held at 30-1 Morning Line, and if I had actually seen the post time odds of 99-1 may have second guessed myself (I was cooking meat loaf)! No way the 1A is 3/2 and the 12 is 99-1

So my Contest bets were on the Tandem - no value in the #1A, some in the #10, lots in the #12, lots in an Exacta Box on the 3 of them.

I think the lesson for myself, and perhaps others is: sure - this scenario loses for whatever reasons, what - 5 times out of 10, or more? But if you want to be there when the breaks fall your way - you have to ante up. The Tandem reversal is a classic concept of the Sartin Methodology, and when you apply value criteria to it - sometimes that's a lotta meatloaf ...

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Nice Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta too ...

Bill - I think I might have inched up a bit in that Contest Shockingly, you and Bill Lyster and I are still knocking at the door in the PAIHL Team Contest!

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 04-01-2012 at 09:19 PM.
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Old 04-01-2012, 09:02 PM   #24
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Louisiana Derby - 2012

The Race:




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Old 04-02-2012, 01:52 AM   #25
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Nice Hit Ted, hope you had real money on it! not just contest cash.


Bill
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Old 04-02-2012, 08:18 AM   #26
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WOW!!!!!Awesome score!!!!
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Old 04-02-2012, 08:43 AM   #27
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Head of the class for Ted

My tandem bet didn't produce, your's did! Congratulations, one the best, if not the best, example I've seen on how to beat the parimutual game.

Now relax, no vexing or strenous exertions in the coming week, save your energy, the finish line is within your reach.

best to you,
chris
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Old 04-02-2012, 08:55 AM   #28
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Thumbs up

Way to go Ted!!!!
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:01 AM   #29
alydar_ David
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Very impressive, Ted.
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Old 04-02-2012, 08:43 PM   #30
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Congrats Ted, well done.
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