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RDSS 2.2 (and previous versions) Racing Decision Support System - The NEW Version 2.2

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Old 10-17-2016, 03:53 PM   #31
Mitch44
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The difference's between Del Mar and SA could be from different trainers hence different patterns. Also looking at the 3 yr. best times table Del Mar is slower that SA therefore a horse at Del Mar will get more conditioning from a slower track than a faster track. Smart trainers will adjust to differences in track so not to leave its race in workouts vs. the afternoon and to get the same conditioning for their horses. I.e. if you run a horse on a slower track in the same time as a faster track. And the opposite if going from SA to Del Mar. Another way to compensate for this is by shorting the distance of the workout or lengthening it to adjust.

What all this means is each track has its differences and probably requires a separate study. And even then you may only fine a few really reliable trainers and their moves or patterns. But they are creatures of habit and follow what has been successful for them in the past. Once a trainer has 2 wins I'd be looking for him as he already has begun to out perform his peers.

A technique that you guys (Bill V. & Bill Lister )can employ is to collect data from different tracks and then share it with each other. I.e. share the workload or collaborate with each other. Many logical benefits here, cuts the work load in half, finds twice as many patters and trainers with exceptional moves etc. Just coordinate prior so both of you are on the same sheet of music as to what your actually going to collect. Good luck.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 10-17-2016 at 03:55 PM.
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Old 10-17-2016, 04:15 PM   #32
Tim Y
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Any trainer who works horses by a pattern, and not to the needs and intellect (if you will) of the individual horse, is a poor trainer indeed.

If you have ever gone backside and observed the training board in their office, the astute trainer has a specific outline prepared for the particular needs of the INDIVIDUAL horse, not some theoretical pattern. I have observed some that are all about slow stamina works and not a single speed move other than a qualifying work.

The way the lessons go forward have no specified pattern, but reflect what the individual animal needs to work on.

Imagine a football coach trying to implement the same preparation on each member of his team. Some need agility work, others strength training yet others need blocking and tackling work......Horses are much the same: some need gate work, others need IN COMPANY work, others need to run straight, others learn to apportion speed and relax on the lead, getting used to equipment changes and how much they can or cannot alter the running. One lesson does NOT FIT ALL.

ANYONE training like a cookbook can expect poor results.
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Old 10-17-2016, 09:43 PM   #33
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So much of the dogma of racing is based upon the LUDIC FALLACY, in other words the belief in some logical conclusion based upon partial or inexact data. Dogma just fills in, or simply disregards, the many facts that are unknown or simply not included in the creation of a logical conclusion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludic_fallacy

What is the Ludic Fallacy?

The ludic fallacy is the misuse of games to model real life situations. It is associated with use of overly simple statistics and the mistaken belief that technology can predict the future.

from http://simplicable.com/new/ludic-fallacy
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Old 10-17-2016, 10:35 PM   #34
Bill V.
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Mitch

Hi Mitch

Del Mar did seem to have faster workouts than Santa Anita is currently showing

Here is an example

First DEL MAR 2016 Maiden winners (trainers col K highlighted )
These winners ran a 92 or higher work out speed rating,( Col 0)
and also had a 5 or 6 furlong work within 9 days of the winning race

Name:  M_SA92SR5_6F.JPG
Views: 370
Size:  167.3 KB

Here is the same thing but from the current SA meeting

Notice the speed ratings are so much higher at Del Mar , thn at SA (Col, P)

Name:  SA_92SR56F.JPG
Views: 339
Size:  91.4 KB

Last edited by Bill V.; 10-17-2016 at 10:39 PM.
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Old 10-18-2016, 06:24 AM   #35
Mitch44
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Bill V.:
On average Del Mar was faster however SA lowest are still 93 or better which 92 and above seem to be a breaking point. For column F, I see a lot of X's which I assume is the distance of the workout and if so their shorter.

Del Mar & Sar. are know for 2 yr. racing and their maturity fits that time of the year. The type of racing (age) and distances vary by tracks which is why some of this is track specific.

Trainers become creatures of habit and what they found that works for them. Smart trainers will and do adjust to a horses needs but their numbers are small to the other side of the spectrum. Baffert is an example as he works all his horses fast. They either handle it or break down. He ruins many horses that can't handle it and this been written about before. We tend to only hear about the ones that make and thrive on it to become champions. Trainers rush horses to make the triple crown while others have the best interest of the horse as the priority.

In racing there are arguments for and against everything and literally thousands of angles and trainers and all this presents variables. Variables does not mean one can't find consistent patterns and take advantage of that knowledge which escapes most of the public.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 10-18-2016 at 06:26 AM.
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Old 10-21-2016, 08:15 PM   #36
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I come in early some days and have breakfast at the employee cafeteria.

I go up to the 6th floor and work out the races of interest for the day and usually run into the clockers who are in the stewards office and/or the placing judges room.

I have never seen any more than three of them there at a time,... now it is later into the second session so there may have been more earlier.

On any given day during the season, some 150-200 animals are out on the main track. They come over from the barns, talk with the horse identifier at the gap (he radios over the information to the clockers) and tell him the horse's name along with how far they are going to work. Also, since there are no logical ID's on the animals (like in Hong Kong where EACH worker is assigned a saddle cloth number so as to NEVER mix them up). Most, but not all, have some sort of stable ID (usually by a colored blanket specific to the trainer).

Now this is NOT including all the animals OUT on the course just making standard two mile gallops. At any one time (unless they are working in company) only one horse goes through their work. WITH all the horses out there, with the feeble way of identification on their backs, MANY times the time and the animal get mixed up.

I sat several mornings with the clocker at Hastings (much fewer horses out there at any one time) and he had 6 stop watches that he lined up on his desk corresponding to the POSITION each animal that was in a work were positioned out on the course. A few times, one that worked BEHIND another passed the first worker in line and he moved that stopwatch to that relative new position. He assured me that MOST of the horses working get accurate recordings, but with so many out there some are missed or incorrectly reported.

He also reported that many two year olds that had not started often were listed under the dam's name until the paperwork got to the racing secretary. This was usually early in the season.

Can you imagine how they keep track of some many animals without numbers?
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Old 10-22-2016, 12:29 AM   #37
Bill V.
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Mitch

1n the 2016 Fall SA meet ( as of 10/16/16 ) there have been 20 MSW races, At Del Mal, for the 2016 Summer meet
there were at total of 66 MSW races.
What I have shown are the winners of those MSW races that ran a 92 or higher workout speed rating.
These horses also had a 5 of 6 furlong workout within 9 days of the winning race

Those x's you see indicate which horses did not have the qualifying 5 or 6 furlong within 9 days, Those
horses with "x" had either shorter works of sometimes no workouts at all,
(that we know about)

From the RDSS files , Workout Documentation by Ted Cravin

I have highlighted the 5 and 6 furlong notations.

Name:  From TED.JPG
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Old 10-22-2016, 11:20 AM   #38
Mitch44
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I remember back when the Doc defended the beaten lengths of horses that were made by various chart makers, really critical to a pace handicapper, to which he said as long as their consistent in their methods.

I find the same thing with the timing of work outs and races themselves. Yes there are faulty timing of races also. As long as it's consistent and we're all on a even playing field, what difference does it make? Otherwise why play the game if you feel it can't be beaten? Hell quit now! We all have the same chance to both lose and profit from incorrect data etc.

Bill V. :
Your right about the 92 as it jumped out at me. Rather then a specific number, furlong worked or GW what data collectors should be looking for is something that will include the most of the sample. A parameter rather then a specific number. The 92 fits this perfectly. What makes yours and Bill Lister study so good is the finding of several different corollaries which strengthens the overall spot play of this. Most would reply on only one piece of date such as a trainer stat that this guy does 12 % with FTS. Its the combining of several different corollaries (synergism) that makes it powerful and giving you an edge over the public.

A 12% trainer with FTS becomes meaningless if the trainer is a poor turf or route trainer and that todays conditions. That 12% has to be put in context much as you did Bill with that $11.80 horse which was competing against trainers with very poor FTS records, except one.
Best of luck,

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 10-22-2016 at 11:26 AM.
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