Practice Race for fun - OP 6th - 4/6/17

[Mitch44]

This one got everybody. Tough, tough race.
Mitch44

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by Jeebs

#6 loses its rider out of the gate and the entire complexion of the race changes. Tough game.

Yeah but that was a nice choice of race Jeebs. Most of us had a chance of doing well had the 6 stayed in the race. I was all over it. Prime bets. To no avail. Even when you do everything you can, you often fall short.

Pook

[The Pook]

Matching early horses don't relent to off the pacers as often as people think. The 1 had the fastest first fraction of all of last race but certainly wasn't dominant. The 1/2 length and 1/2 length first and second call was interesting but would have been more interesting with hd and hd. I wouldn't be surprised if the 1 won anyway with 6 in there, the way it turned out. It went mid 22's and 46 so the intensity didn't develop. Helps to explain why he hung on. The 6 wasn't there to push.

Pook

[Jeebs]

We can try another tomorrow. Maybe this time we won't get dumped out of the gate!

[ssag0]

Isn't the 1 the actual lone early here? And on the rail? He is a true need to lead horse he has the rail and looks to be the fastest on this course to the lead.

[For The Lead]

I want to thank JEEBS for posting all the horses in this race and I suggest that he do this for every race he posts so people can follow along with all his comments on line selection. I think they’ll appreciate his efforts in doing so.

Now, since this is just a “FUN RACE” for “PRACTICE”, let’s see how it would have worked out using For The Lead’s guidelines.

First, there are no horses with a ML of 20/1 or higher, so all horses remain in.
Second, all horses have a race in the last 90 days, so all horses remain in.

Ok, on to contender/line selection. Just as a refresher, use the last line as long as it is a comparable distance and surface and is a “+” or a “(+)” line.
If the last line is not a “+” or a “(+)” race, then there must be a “VALID” and I emphasize “VALID” reason to go back ONE line. Don’t’ MAKE UP EXCUSES. Any line older than 90 days will not be used. Let’s see how it goes.

#1 – LINE-1, This is a “(+)” line where the horse shows good early speed. Just because the horse faded after the second call is not a reason to believe it will fade after the second call today.
#2 – NO LINE, there appears to be no VALID reason to go back one line.
#3 – NO LINE, all lines showing are route races.
#4 – LINE -1, this is a “+” race and there is no reason to go back any further.
#5 – LINE-1, this is a “(+)” line. As with horse #1, there is no reason to assume it will fade after the second call today just because it faded in its’ last race.
#6 – NO LINE, there were only two lines to consider, line 1 and line 2. Neither of these lines are a “+” or a “(+)” race and I would certainly not use line 2 from DeD (a bull ring) no matter what.
#7 – NO LINE, the only line to consider is the last line since it is the only race in the last 90 days. Since that line is not a “+” or a “(+)” race the horse does not get a line.
#8 – NO LINE, the horses last three lines are just plain bad.

So, we have as contenders horses #1, #4 and #5.

I don’t have access to RDSS so I can’t post any screen shots for you. For those who are interested enough, try entering the horses I have as contenders and use the lines I suggested and see how it would have worked out for you.

I have posted many races on Pace and Cap and every single one of them were done exactly the same way. Consistency is the key. If you want to go look at them here is a link. http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=116 Sorry, but you will have to look through some of these various threads as I was not the thread starter in every case.

Best of luck to everyone!

[dlivery]

This is my take on a early horse

Originally Posted by the pook

there are always differing viewpoints in the same methodology. Jeebs calls #6 an early but i see him as relegated to slightly off the pace with the 1,2 and 5 in here. He can pass horses and so i see him possibly being successful from there.

Pook

[Mitch44]

I have an 11:00 meeting but should be done by 2:00. Will try to participate.
Mitch44

[Mitch44]

I had the early horses as 1,2 & 5. The 1 had terrible TT and 3rd FR so I eliminated him. He did slow down but no one challenged him giving him the breather he needed to finish. This race was somewhat strangely run and considering his price someone bet him down.
Not saying it was fixed but strangely run. Just one of those races that was hard to get especially with this group coming up empty.

Don't let it live in your mind.
Mitch44

[Jeebs]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

I had the early horses as 1,2 & 5. The 1 had terrible TT and 3rd FR so I eliminated him. He did slow down but no one challenged him giving him the breather he needed to finish. This race was somewhat strangely run and considering his price someone bet him down.
Not saying it was fixed but strangely run. Just one of those races that was hard to get especially with this group coming up empty.

Don't let it live in your mind.
Mitch44

I 100% doubt that it was fixed, Mitch. When #6 stumbled and unseated the rider, it took (IMO) a key component of the early pace right out of the race. Also, remember that jockeys and trainers read the Form too. Even though their PPs may scream "Early!", the connections may take back and hope that their horse can rate. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. The jockeys probably didn't even realize until after the fact that the horse unseated the rider. Unfortunately for them, timing off the gate is everything and it was too late to call an audible and make an early push.

Bottom line, if you had #6, it is a throwaway race. If you had #1, move to the head of the class, but be aware that this one may be a "bet against" next out if entered against similar runners.