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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 03-16-2016, 11:15 AM   #11
Mitch44
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Hi Bill,

I'm with raceman5 that running wide isn't a troubled trip.

But my made problem with L1 is that the horse ran completely sustained which isn't its running style and is an abnormal race for this horse. I don't need to know the reason, just that's its abnormal. Therefore I would use L3 in this example of TPR and stay with its natural running style. On the Early Late screen his red line or indicators varies along with his EPR'S suggesting he is a E/P and therefore will rate. No % Early or Median is available, they are more accurate. Running styles by those parameters could be different from the S1 at top of his chart.

If I were using another later phase or program I would run both L3 & L4 through it because the variant on line 3 is -16 which is extremely fast and not the norm. L4 is also a projection. I'm not aware how the adjustments for variants or track to track are made in TPR here. In the original book for TPR these are done by hand. Without any further information I would trust the TrackMaster variant and go with L3.

Mitch44
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Old 03-16-2016, 12:15 PM   #12
Bill V.
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Something

Quote:
Originally Posted by raceman5 View Post
Bill totally disagree with your logic here. first of all running wide is not a troubled trip. If you look at the horses last 10 pp's he has run wide in 4 of them. So IMO opinion thats not an excuse to go to the next line. Now if the hors got hammered by another horse and was forced wide you then have an excuse to go to the next line.

Bob
Hi Bob
I agree with Mitch, whether or not we think line 1 is a trouble trip,
(I do ) The horse changed its normal running pattern, I feel it was because of being forced wide.

I have highlighted the phase 1 numbers

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To me the horse has no problem turning in 80 + EPR'S in every race, Yet
in line one it runs only a 77EPR, It rebounds to finish with its best ever LPR
87 I want to select a + paceline that is recent and I think line 1 is aberrant
Line 2 is excused, so its either line 3 or 4 for me.

Thanks
Bill
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Old 03-16-2016, 12:24 PM   #13
raceman5
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I

Will agree with you on that. Line 1 is differently a aberrant pace line so it does make sense to go beyond Line 1.
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Old 03-17-2016, 03:29 PM   #14
Mark
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Different approaches

Thanks Bill,
I was very interested in your approach. I have been working a lot of races looking at the top 5 last line TPR. In all the years I never looked at this. It is amazing the number of races the winner is included. The place horse is there it seems at least 50% of the time. I am trying to reconcile this with Bradshaw's FPLR horse and when found jumping into the pps and finding his best ever. As Richie said "make him as fast as you can". However, the temptation is to evaluate the other horses and give them better lines more or less based on that early, 1st fraction, pace of race. And the results are not as good.
Horses that run atypical last races with an excuse deserve the opportunity to be evaluated off a typical performance. Taking horses wide on the final turn as chronicled by Jim Lehane in "Calibration Handicapping" is a valid method of conditioning not just a troubled trip especially when it is not habitual behavior of a slow Sustained horse. Your example horse had shipped and was coming off a bit of a freshening so in that context, and the fact that his normal running style was somewhat early, the horse had speed, made it perfectly excusable in my opinion.
I can see you have flexibility in your line selection and not bound to that last race. But I wanted to hear it from you!!! Thanks, I appreciate the response and example. This is a very good thread and refresher course.
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Old 03-17-2016, 07:34 PM   #15
CEW
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Mark -

I am in the same camp as you when you wrote that "in all these years I never looked at this (the top 5 - last line TPRs). I've been working my way into TPRs over the last year to a year and a half with a great amount of success. I dismissed them for whatever reason up till then.

On long commutes to work over the winter a year ago, I started listening to Tom Hambleton's lectures on TPRs and something told me to try them. So I wrote up spreadsheet and have pretty well ironed out the adjustments to my satisfaction.

Regards!

Chuck
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Old 04-21-2016, 01:29 PM   #16
MikeB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark View Post
I have always wondered what to do about horse who in their last start had: 1. serious commented trouble making the race useless for evaluation purposes, 2. had one or two races off a layoff particularly one race off up to 120 days or so with good works before and after or 2 races off a substantial layoff generally over 200 days or 3. raced on the wrong surface or at the opposite distance structure?
Any substitute race will be older and not necessarily meet the requirement of the "Last Line".
In the Pacelines Manual, Doc says always use the last line unless there is a valid excuse. He then lists a number of valid excuses, including trouble line, wrong surface or distance, off track, etc.

He also says you can expand the definition of "last line", such as last line before trouble line(s), last line at comparable distance/surface/class, etc. This is the "last line" concept that I use.

In other words, "It depends".

He also says that if a horse showed signs of improving form in the last race (good early speed or ran well against a very fast pace), you can go back to a race that shows what the horse is capable of when in condition. This is kind of blurring the difference between pace line and power line.
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Old 04-21-2016, 02:27 PM   #17
Mark
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Retrospective

Am about to drive to the airport and fly to Oakland where my long time handicapping partner will pick me up and we will spend 3 grand days at his home in the Berkeley Hills handicapping. Will even have time to take in a Giant game. Met him in a Tom Hambleton TPR in Las Vegas in 1993.
It was refreshing to spend a week or two working TPR and following Bill V along on his excellent threads, but I am a Matcher and starting the analysis at the 2nd Call ignores some of most important aspects of Jim Bradshaw's approach, it seems to me. How does the horse normally break? Does he go forward from his break position? Where does he want to be at the 1st Call as evidenced by his best efforts and wins. No one talks about it much but Visual Running Style was all Jim's. The whole concept of horse psychology, need to lead, fighter, won't pass horses in the stretch etc was popularized by "The Hat" and Richie P in his many threads on the Hat Check Blog. So while it was a fun retrospective to revisit the old TPR days, I am firmly back to my course.
"The Hat" recommended looking through the horse's complete PPs and find the race where he finished up close or won against the fastest early pace. That isn't exactly the "Last Line". This works best in a "Paceless" race where you can't project the early pace. With these lines selected, you then have to review each horse to determine if you can use that line particularly if it is deep in the pps. Ask yourself 3 questions: 1) Is he still a horse? 2) Has he changed his running style and become a slow horse? 3) If Early, can he still get on top of his fractions? Your answers will determine whether you accept the line. I was looking at Turf lines last evening. Worked all of them. The last one exemplifies my point:
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I ask you where you would be taking the "Last line, except..."
This was not a field of world beaters and don't we really want to know how fast an Early Pace a horse can be successful against? Isn't that what horse racing comes down to? Some will say, "Oh, she's off a 103 day freshening with only one workout!" This would be an immediate elimination for FTL. But what is it about layoffs that we should be so scared of. Think about it? The connections feel strongly about their horse that they will keep it in the barn or take it to the ranch and give it time and exercise to recover whatever is wrong. It is Horsey R & R!! Most tracks require a public workout if the horse has not raced in 60 days so this trainer satisfied that requirement, but hypothetically if he has his horse sharp off work at the farm do you think he will tip the betting word by working a bullet? I found out there are swimming pools available in the Mountaineer area so that when they return to racing after the winter break, those trainers with access to the pools win tons of races and before you can get on his hot streak, the public starts pounding his horses at the windows. So what is wrong with this horse.
She is sustained and has a win over the track and at the distance within 6 months, 3 of those months at the farm. in a field of EPs and P horses all of which are rated lower on BL/BL why should this horse run well at 22/1?
Maybe you want to set a small bank aside and play these kinds of horses. Pick Bradshaw's POWER LINE as your paceline and eliminate those that fail to answer his questions correctly. Doesn't take many of these to make a week or month!
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Old 04-21-2016, 07:02 PM   #18
Bill V.
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If your going to San Francisco, be sure to wear some flowers in you hair

Hi Mark. I wish I could join you up in SF for that Giants game and some TPR working,
I am heading up north on the 5 from shakytown,
I will be passing by Frisco tonight but I can not stop. I have to be in Portland Or, asap

I look forward to looking over your race
Great work up ,
Bill
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Old 04-21-2016, 10:12 PM   #19
oswaldrha
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Holy ****ing Godzilla.
One horse from the 5th paceline back, two horses from the 7th paceline back, one horse from the 8th paceline back, two horses from the 9th paceline back, and one horse from the 10th paceline back?
You, Sir, possess the sort of courage a mere mortal like myself can only dream of. If I had a Michael Pizzolla Wayback Machine Award to grant you, I would.
(Perhaps I can purchase some sort of Doctor Who tchotchke and make one for you)
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Old 04-21-2016, 11:38 PM   #20
Bill V.
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what else is there

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Originally Posted by oswaldrha View Post
Holy ****ing Godzilla.
One horse from the 5th paceline back, two horses from the 7th paceline back, one horse from the 8th paceline back, two horses from the 9th paceline back, and one horse from the 10th paceline back?
You, Sir, possess the sort of courage a mere mortal like myself can only dream of. If I had a Michael Pizzolla Wayback Machine Award to grant you, I would.
(Perhaps I can purchase some sort of Doctor Who tchotchke and make one for you)
Hello oswaldrha and Mark

Okay I am looking at the race.

Here are the Phase 1 readouts from the last line
This is always step 1 in Phase 1 .
Looking at every horses last line , I can see that of the top 5 TPR horse only
the 4 horse comes with a comparable Turf route line
and that is from over a 200 day layoff I believe Doc's cut off was 189 days
I also see TPRs between 175 and 169 so Like Mark said these are not world beaters
anyway here are the phase 1 read outs last line

Name:  Last line TPR.PNG
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