Arkansas Derby Grade 1 1,000,000

[Bill V.]

I will post my look in a while

winner of the 2004 Arkansas Derby
SMARTY JONES !!!!

Go Smarty Go !!!!


https://youtu.be/_1lAfa7hYxU

[Bill V.]

1, 2, 3, 4

[Bill V.]

5,6,7,8

[Bill V.]

9,10,11,12

[raceman5]

I will use the tandem race of March18 R10

12-7-9


Bob

[Bill V.]

Grade 1 3 Year Old

Top 5 TPR last line 12, 7, 9, 3 ,4

fulcrum POR EPR 91.5 ( horse 12 )

Horses and notes .

Horse 1. Rocklin Rudy Early No recent + races routing Has never faced this Fulcrum POR
No Line

Horse 2.Classic Empire. Morning line favorite Line 1, is a plus pace line, This is also new form cycle today
Line 2 is a great line but I think line 1 is representative for a 70 day layoff ability

Horse 3 Silver Dust Sustained Line 1 rates well ( top 5 TPR ) but today the EPR will have to improve
He only shows 1 win against a slow MS pace

Horse 4 Petrov EP With 3 year olds, I will excuse line 1 if line 2 is better and both are + pacelines
within the current form cycle. Line 2

Horse 5 Grandpa's Dream 30/1 Early Line 1 is his maiden wn ( sentimental pick for Marianna Sartin )
but 30/1 and a slow POR EPR

Horse 6 Lookin At Lee Sustained Great horse for ITM but what to do for a paceline ?
Line 2 looks good but it is a trouble line ?

Horse 7 Sonneteer Sustained Line 1 is a plus paceline but he has never won a race !

Horse 8 Rowdy The Warrior Line 1 is a a plus paceline but 30/1
This one just seems weak in the LPR

Horse 9 Untrapped Sustained Presser Line 1 is a plus paceline

Horsee 10 One Dreamy Dude Sustained still a maiden

Horse 11 Conquest Mo Money Early Line 1 is a plus paceline

Horse 12 Malagacy Early Presser Line 1 is a plus paceline

[Bill V.]

I will go with 9 and 12


Good Skill to you

Bill

[lone speed]

Thanks for posting your workup on this Derby prep race, Bill V

I don't understand the speed rating assigned to the Sunland Derby, but "it is what it is...."

I got drawn into this race because of the fast pace of the Sunland Derby and Irap came out of that particular race to wire the Blue Grass Stakes last week over the pre-Derby favorite McCraken....Maybe Irap paired up before the Blue Grass; nevertheless Irap got away with a 48.0 first fraction and wired the field at 31 to 1 last week....

Conquest Mo Money came in second in the Sunland Derby but more importantly, Conquest Mo Money was up close to the blistering pace which it will not see in today's match- up even though we have a sprinter stretching out today in the #1 horse trained by O'Neill. Conquest Mo Money can spring a mlld upset in today's Derby prep race in my humble two cents.

Good skills

[lostandwon]

Bill, thanks for posting the race.

From my own (such as it is) matchup perspective:

See the #1 as the rabbit. Going to set fast pace then stop. By default perhaps of being the E sprinter, also has FPLR of 21.8-43.9. Went backward last 2 starts @ 6.5f so take it with a grain of salt.

See the big tandem of the Rebel with 12, 7, 9, 4, 3
The 4 might have had traffic problems. The 7 while a maiden did show moves of 10-8 from 1c-2c and 8-4 2c-str. What a price in that race!

See E of 1 & 5(?)
1 will stop on own and 5 is slow

Looking for OTE

Don’t really have a projected POR but the big tandem went 23 – 47
12 won OTE from 2nd pos
7 placed from Mars
Even though the others might have had traffic issues I’m kicking the rest of the tandem out

2 won OTE from 2nd pos at a 23.1 & a 23.4 - 46.6

11 has won E and OTE and at fractions competitive to what the others have ran against.
2nd race back it fought with multiple horses at multiple calls.
It is the only horse to have ran the full 9f and did so at a 45.7 half mile compared to the field’s half mile of 46.6 – 47. Also, the 11 moved from 7 – 2 from 1c – 2c. It only placed in that race but I don’t think it’s going to face as hot of a pace today.

So, in my opinion, the 11 can pull something off here. He’s gotta beat the 12 and 2. The 7 has never won and certainly may not win against this crowd but he seems to have a nose for place and show.

Bet 11 Win Place

Lone Speed, I type in a word doc to cut and paste on the board. You posted your look between the time I started typing and logged on to post. I say this all in that even contrarians like me like some company. Ha! Just hope I'm not the kiss of death for the 11. But, really, looking at those TE and TPR numbers in the screenshots the 11 looks like he's in trouble. However, I'm trying to implement the matchup so just looking at raw numbers.

Good luck to all!

[Lt1]

My contenders are 12-2-9-4-11
#2 L2 moves up to G1 after loss in G2 Holy Bull Counter energy
#4 L2 moves up gets class test
#9 L2 3rd G2 Rebel last looks to be headed in right direction
#11 L2 3RD IN G3 Sunland Derby regular comes in for ride wise guy horse
#12 L1 Winner of the G2 Rebel. Is 3-3 with increasing energy numbers.

Pending the odds right now I'm leaning to 12-2-9-4-11. Will also be looking at the 3 &7 underneath to juice up exotics.
Tim G