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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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06-10-2017, 12:13 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Belmont Stakes
Hello from Del Mar
Grade 1 3-year-olds 1,500,000 I really don't think i will be betting this race with any serious money No horse has any paceline at a comparable distance and these are still only 3-year-olds. I have had success in the past using my own idea, since this is a 12 furlong race and the 3rd fractions are a question, I hand enter my lines into Entropy but I set the distance of the race to 9.5 furlongs based on Hat's marathon ideas about looking at horses at the mile point. I then take my top 5 from Entropy and run them to thoromation. I try to stop the animated horses at what I consider the mile point of the race Each screen shot shows my RDSS Phase 1 on top and Thoromation on the bottom My highly unique method using Thoromation but based on a 9.5 distance 10, 8, 6, Good Skill New York-New York Bill 1 adjust 2 adjust |
06-10-2017, 01:49 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,037
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Hi Bill. I go down to 9f on these 12f races. Did it in the 3rd and hit the winner for $10 .the ex cold for $65.50 and the ti and super. Did the same yesterday to get a $6 winner. As far as the Belmont goes none of them excite me. So far I'm leaning toward 2-12-7-10-3.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
06-10-2017, 01:54 PM | #3 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
I once went down to 8 furlongs, The horse was Richards Kid using KGEN I won some kind of a daily contest on Paceadvantage, I remember Richie getting a big kick out of my "method" GS Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 06-10-2017 at 01:58 PM. |
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06-10-2017, 02:11 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,037
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If I remember right didn't Jimmy cut the marathons down to 8f for capping purposes.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
06-10-2017, 02:33 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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can't remember exactly
The matchers can verify but I think your correct, I do know Hat said to look at the mile times
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06-10-2017, 02:54 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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This is a dart throw for me. However, off that Illinois Derby line the #10 looks to be the horse. The best 3 year olds are in the barn so something other than that will win this. My other play will be the #9 catching everyone by surprise grabbing the lead, slowing it down and taking them all the way around. No telling how good this horse is but appears to me to be sitting on a big race.
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06-10-2017, 06:26 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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2 & 12 split 60:40 in the time honoured tradition.
7 running out of steam come the stretch for me, which probably means it wins doing cartwheels! Good skill to one & all. |
06-10-2017, 06:35 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Taking a small shot with improving 3 yr. olds:
1-8-9-10 no specific order for these. Better odds on 9 & 10 Mitch44 |
06-10-2017, 06:53 PM | #9 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
You called it !! Good Skill indeed |
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06-10-2017, 07:03 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Thanks very much Bill, appreciate that.
It wouldn't have happened without your starting this site & RDSS! Also, Lt1 might have had a slice of that tasty Super dividend! |
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