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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-22-2016, 08:40 AM   #11
Tim Y
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Top horses that have won handily always pose a problem. When Hard Spun showed definite distance related weaknesses that became apparent in the Triple Crown, with each step a backwards one, it was obvious this was a distance limited animal who NEVER won a step over 9.0 furlongs.

Came back at Saratoga in (I believe) the Vanderbilt and was meeting some REAL sprinters. UP to that point this one has NEVER been up against as quick an early pace as the majority in that field. What to do? I wisely watched and learned.

Hard Spun took the lead in a fraction it had NEVER demonstrated before, and won easily.

MANY a time these top level animals are NEVER asked for their absolute best, so we, as pace handicappers, are left to wonder: What is that limit?

Song bird is a case of this: SHE has never been tested, never pushed, never challenged.

The race was an F minus betting opportunity anyway.
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Old 08-22-2016, 08:45 AM   #12
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Also, I have found that DOMINANT horses usually come into their races CLOSE up to the pace, press mildly then take off. They are rarely if ever (Zenyatta the big exception of late) are far out of it.

Exertion OFF the pace is so energy taxing that competitive animals need be close to it to have much of a chance. On the main track, speed is almost the universal variant. The more I study, the wider tracks view I glean, the more I believe it. May be it is a measure of just competitiveness to PUSH early, but the closers are at distinct DISADVANTAGE almost EVERY race, EVERY track, EVERYDAY on all main race tracks..

Grass is a different animal as they are UPSIDE down.
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Old 08-22-2016, 03:29 PM   #13
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raceman5 View Post
I was playing the races yesterday at Saratoga. Past line selection i was using is Best Perceptor Last 3. Well the readouts on the Alabama race left me scratching my head. Why in the world does Songbird come up forth on VDC? Please chime in guys I'm perplexed on this.

bob
Bob, your question, and this race in particular, in rather simplistic yet bold fashion, raises an interesting point about how comprehensive we can and can't expect our BLBL / VDC line score to be. BL, and VDC which comprises BL and deceleration computations, is an aggregate of 7 different ways of slicing and dicing segmental time and velocity. Plus, it is based on selected paceline(s) to represent the horse (manual or automated). Thus - choose different lines: your BL changes; choose fast lines for a horse against low calibre competition or choose its best ever by far: it looks like a (false) superstar; choose a line for a horse against a pace it cannot handle today: its supposed speed and incremental times and its inherent Running Style will not survive today's Matchup. Etc, etc. These are all reasons why BL can 'lie' (or more charitably, sometimes not tell a very useful truth, or 'GIGO' garbage in = garbage out).

Here's a 'thought experiment' - before the race ran, why is it you were surprised that Songbird was not rated more highly on BL? Possibly it went something like this: she won ALL her races running on the front-end in dominant fashion, in Grade 1 or 2 events, as the heavy favourite (except her Maiden bow). In each race, except for 3 calls total over 9 races, she got to set the pace and speed she wanted: she did not run faster than she needed to and in all races blew the competition away not only at the end but often by the 2nd call. You probably thought her overall dominance was based on pretty much EVERY race she ran, not on just a 1 race best-ever by far (like the #2 line 3, or a never-equaled G3 at Prairie Meadows like #5 line 2); or that she was an Early horse who looked to easily be able to beat or track the only other likely Early #4 Go Maggie. Something like all that, perhaps.

Importantly - because she got to set most of her own paces, and thus ran only as fast as she needed to, that does not mean she cannot run faster when she needs to! Do we, in general, think she has this capability? Well, probably YES, and on demand.

Unfortunately, BL and VDC do not measure a) consistency, b) calibre of competition (aka race class), Matchup effects or any other factors outside of or tangential to incremental velocity and final time. Often however, this is enough to get get a useful ranking of horses - where the Top 3 may be considered of equal ability, only to be separated by betting odds (aka 'wagercapping'). That plus a little common sense, investigative ability and record-keeping on the part of the handicapper (e.g. when do you use a best-ever line and when not; do you downgrade efforts against weaker competition than today; do you consider any effects of pace pressure, etc, etc) - these often work very well to get you to the point of seeing whether there is a 'market' for your opinion (aka what are the odds offered, and in various pools).

The foregoing reasoning, however (i.e. the sometimes insufficiency of BLBL/VDC alone), are why I tried to create another Line Score, in an upcoming version of RDSS, named Rx, which includes just such overall factors as we discussed above in our thought experiment:

- VDC or relative ability from chosen paceline
- CSR (a measure simply of final time consistency)
- CLASS (the new CR+ rating, measured by earnings, calibre of competition, consistency of placement, and public odds)
- an Early/Late analysis (EL+)
- and an optional outside opinion or 'Power Number' (i.e. something not simply rehashing pace/speed/deceleration, but an outside, or non-correlated provider's opinion, such as ML Odds rank, or BRIS Prime Power, or TwinSpires ProfitLine which may include other handicapping factors we do not use in this Methodology, or even another RDSS factor rank you like for this kind of race such as PoR TE, Tpp, TS+F3, or CR+ again, etc, etc)

All the above weighted by rank, just as BLBL components are weighted by rank, and compressing the Top 3 ranks somewhat.

That is why on Mick's Rx screen, Songbird appeared where she belonged - unequivocally on top, and the pretenders with simply occasional high SRs or efforts against inferior competition, in their respective lesser ranks.

It was gratifying to see the BEST BET in the race #3 Going for Broke to PLACE - in the exactly correct position, right underneath Songbird.

These are some of the ideas I am trying to work on in RDSS 2.1. I think they can be helpful - still not a Black Box, and still improved by sharp and thoughtful human analysis.

I have given it to a few folks for testing and feedback, but not too many (some who simply asked). Even while taking a little time off this year, I can only handle so much feedback and do service to the kind efforts and queries of testers. In due course, it will circulate more widely (and with more documentation - LOL). Then anyone who wants to can take a look, no worries (that's the point of creating it!)

Meanwhile, the existing RDSS (or Val or Spec or whatever) still works as well as ever - and even better with an astute handicapper at the wheel

Bob, I know that's a long answer (my weakness), but that's how I saw this race, and how RDSS and BLBL handled it. Hope it was helpful.

Cheers (from sunny and too-HOT-for-a-Canadian Escondido CA, 20 minutes from Del Mar )

Ted

P.S. Looking forward to the PaceandCap Meetup this Saturday at Del Mar!
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-22-2016 at 04:36 PM. Reason: grammar, clarification
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Old 08-22-2016, 04:13 PM   #14
raceman5
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yes

I understand. when a horse like songbirds sets her own easy fractions and is never pressed her lines can look suspect.

Bob
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Old 08-23-2016, 02:12 AM   #15
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Bob, I got the same readout as you did so we must have the same settings. I think it comes down to comparing apples to oranges. The computer gives us the best preceptor line of the last 3 at a similar distance. Songbirds last 3 are some of it's worst lines, while the other horses lines happen to be some of the best they have ever run. If you go back an look at the POR of Songbirds top four lines where she won, the horse ran 164.7-166. So she probably runs a 165 no problem. 164.7 is close enough,and compare that to the other horses when they actually win or come close say within 3 lengths and in the money.
1. Dark Nile 162.9-159.3
2. Weep 165.2 adj SR 87 next best is 72 then 65 yikes throw that 87 line out that leaves a 160.6 or 158.8.
3. Going for Broke similar to Weep 164.2 adj SR 88 next best 78,79 163.6-162.4 kind of close
4. Go Maggie 163.6-162.7
5. Family Tree 164.4-163.2 top four that's close just has to run her best race ever
7. Flora 163.1-161.1 so like around 162

Only one horse has run better than 164.7 the 2. Her last 2 races failed to beat half the field never close against slower paced races, and has started to run using more energy early, not good for a closer. Well that's sort of my view.

Jim
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Old 08-23-2016, 09:44 AM   #16
Tim Y
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Realize a horse can ONLY run in response to the pace of race it is challenged by. NO challenge, why put our the extra effort. NOT necessary

THAT is why PACE OF RACE is so important to an evaluation, not just the REACTIVE fractions this or that horse posted against it.
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Old 08-23-2016, 02:10 PM   #17
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That

Is some great stuff there. You know i have had the software several mths now and have not worked at it like i should be. I have been doing the matchup for over 15 yrs with the form and bris and then the free pp's have to say its a little hard transitioning over to software. But i tell you i went back over sat races and used the techniques u pointed out and also Tim about horse whose form is declining by using the % Median and also declining speed ratings and also looking at lines that preceptor chose whose speed ratings are of the aberrant nature. We have a great group of guys here who always out there for help. So you new people out there don't be afraid to post your problems u might be having that is keeping you from becoming a winner.

Bob
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Old 08-28-2016, 05:20 PM   #18
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did anyone have #1 Arrogate bet to win in the Travers on sat. I thought #2 American Freedom would get an easy lead and possibly wire the field.....he was a win bet for me.
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