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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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03-11-2017, 04:01 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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2017 San Felipe At Santa Anita
Derby prep race at 1 1/16th on dirt at SA
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03-11-2017, 04:06 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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At first glance, Mastery and Gormley seem to tower over the field but...
After evaluating the first fractions that Mastery ran at Los Alamitos; he got away with a soft 23.0 opening first fraction. Iliad seems to have an pace advantage and this one can close fast as shown by Iliad's first sprint race where he ran the last quarter under 24.0. I project Iliad to upset the top two and trainer Bob Baffert will regret losing this horse to Doug O'Neil. Good skills. |
03-12-2017, 10:28 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hello Lonespeed
I was unavailable yesterday so I could not do the race
I know your a classic program user, So I worked the race in Thoromation Here are my notes , The power of Thoromation is to get the race down to no more than 4 horses, The #1 problem people have with this program is entering slow horses Grade 2 San F. 3 G2400 Horse 1 . SP No recent + pace lines except line 3 which is a grade 3 win but on a super slow track speed rating only 62 Horse 2. F/EP Non contender, Line 1 is a (+) followed by a layoff. Line 2 is on the turf. Line 3 is a + race but very slow speed rating of 66 Horse 3. EP Line 1 + Grade 3 speed rating 80 Horse 4. Early Line 1 Los Almo lines scare me but it is a Grade 1 win line, Speed rating 86. Horse 5 Early/Fighter Line 1 is a plus pace line Grade 3 win. Speed rating 90 Horse 6. EP only shows sprint lines. Line 1 is a Grade 2 win but at 7 furlongs Speed 89. Horse 7 Presser Non Contender Has not won its maiden race yet 0/5 lifetime It's highest ever speed rating is only 76 Because of horse 6 sprint lines I used the auto projector |
03-12-2017, 10:33 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Readouts
Horse 3 off the poly surface looks slow against these other horses so I will use the 2 adjust
Here is the energy generator Thoromation EXDC Preplay /DPH |
03-12-2017, 10:35 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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The race
The Sprinter horse 6 takes a big lead and holds off the 4 horse
The 4 is the horse that hits the wire at the second panel so it is the designated place horse 6-4 Bill |
03-13-2017, 09:44 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Thanks Bill
Hello Bill..
It's always great to read and to study your race examples that you posted here. Thanks for your time in posting the Thoromation readouts and your analysis. Your readouts seem eerily similar to mine Mastery dominated the race while Iliad ran a strange race as Iliad should have been in front...(Bounce???) It was sad to see Mastery get injured after the race. Mastery ran the best race as a 2 year old colt, "energy wise" in the Los Alamitos Futurity but these types of energy expenditure horse don't developed further into their 3 year seasons...Too much, too soon. As for Iliad, we shall see if this one, truly, has distance limitations in the Santa Anita Derby. Looking forward to your future workout of races. Thanks again, Bill |
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