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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 06-05-2014, 11:07 PM   #1
RAMON201
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Belmont Stakes 2014

Belmont Stakes 1 1/2 M , D purse $1,500,000
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Old 06-05-2014, 11:08 PM   #2
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Old 06-06-2014, 10:36 AM   #3
Ted Craven
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California Chrome has every right to win the Belmont and become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed - BUT, he will have to bring his A+ game (as he appears to ALWAYS have done this year) and show us something extra - which I truly believe he will!

I worked this race both as its actual 12f distance and as a 10f race, to minimize distance adjustments between horses' 9, 9.5 and 10f pacelines - there was NO material difference in the BL/BL tiers, so I continued my analysis as 12f. That said, at issue - for ALL these horses - is that grueling 12f: who can maintain their previously demonstrated energy and drive, over that extra 2 or, for some, 3 extra furlongs (hey Tonalist!?) they have never run before!?

Ride on Curlin shows on top, but IMO that's mostly an artifact of his great 3rd fraction run in the Preakness. I used that race for each of CC and ROC, but the late gain against the pace gives ROC a small bump in the numbers, which I discount - though have to respect as a true contender.

I see the early horses Samraat, Tonalist and maybe General A Rod if he can stay out of trouble forcing CC to attend a non-slothful pace to stay in his preferred out-of-trouble 2nd or 3rd position through the half. He can't be forced to move too early to the front (say, half-way around final turn, earliest) but he won't (doesn't) want to fall too far back.

Hence, CC will have to show us everything he's got and perhaps more - hopefully a new energy level. The Other Than Earlies will have to hope that the front flight gets softened up enough for their closing moves to count, and I mean ROC and Commanding Curve. Again, if he can stay out of trouble, General A Rod should be in about the same position as CC, and together with ROC provides the principal contention to spoil CC's bid for immortality.

Tri's and Super's should come from the top group shown, though I struggle to see why Tonalist is anywhere - a Grade 2 win (in fine style), at a modest final time and pace time, 4 races (= fresh, but unseasoned, i.e. compared to CC). I am not worried about him - maybe for 3rd or 4th spot though, who knows.

I see a possibility to bet against CC for the win, at his likely less than EVEN odds - ROC and GAR - but given his demonstrated penchant for staying out of trouble in the 2nd flight, his consistency, willingness to accelerate when asked and apparent mental toughness - I still see California Chrome as the most likely winner. A lot will depend I think on how much pressure there is on him to attend a certain pace and stay in the top 3 positions - and on how much more depth he has for those extra 2 furlongs which he has not yet had to show, and how much similar depth improving horses like ROC, Commanding Curve and, OK, perhaps Tonalist also have.

The most anticipation I've had for a horse race in a long time! Safe trip to all the horses and riders, and good luck to all us bettors!

Time for some History!

Ted

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Old 06-06-2014, 12:33 PM   #4
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I think I am going to throw the in for the exacta. I think there is more out of the 6 we haven't seen because of the last few races he has been in, he just hasn't any speed to run at. Should get a little bit better right? Looks to me like a palace malice. Mike smith on board at 30-1 ML it should pay fair.

He has had his chances to get the job done. I just dont think this race will be his best .

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Old 06-06-2014, 12:48 PM   #5
Bill Lyster
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NBC ran a series of the greatest Belmonts earlier this week and one thing for sure, if the odds on horse does not win, there are box car numbers to be had if you pick the right one... up to 70 to 1 in one case and 37/1 in another. If, perchance the favorite gets beat the pick threes, doubles, etc. might make your year!

Good luck on Saturday.
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Old 06-06-2014, 02:46 PM   #6
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Why yes indeed! I remember fondly Da Tara in 2008, who went wire to wire at 38-1, top of BL/BL line, beautiful $600+ exacta with Denis of Cork. Courtesy of Big Brown pulling up in the stretch , but good chance he had him beat anyway. Biggest Triple Crown series payout of my life!

If you want to throw out CC tomorrow for top position, the sky is the limit!

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Old 06-06-2014, 04:11 PM   #7
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Me too! Probably my biggest HC thrill

I thought BB was very vunerable and didn't have him rated in my top 3, although I did include him in mt exacta.

I'm hoping for CC to take it over the fence and in the end zone!

Bud
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Old 06-06-2014, 05:22 PM   #8
Bill V.
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Agree this is your chance to make some good money.
It is one of a very few times in racing thats a win win
If cc does it its a great day ..... If misses and you are right with your choice
you get a better value then ever .
I think the day has come for the Cal bred

BILL

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Old 06-06-2014, 06:35 PM   #9
chuckg
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Just wondering if the CD line is ok for the 4 Comma. I seem to remember something about not using Churchill lines. Or am I getting my tracks crossed. Reason being it makes comma 2Nd late pace rating.
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Old 06-06-2014, 07:41 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckg View Post
Just wondering if the CD line is ok for the 4 Comma. I seem to remember something about not using Churchill lines. Or am I getting my tracks crossed. Reason being it makes comma 2Nd late pace rating.
Yes Indeed Chuck


One of the very few rules in the Sartin Methodology
Listen to Doc in is own words talking to Aline Best about her getting Lemon Drop Kid and winning the Belmont

Doc lays down the law ( about 1 minute in to this clip )

Docaline.mp4





Bill

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