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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 07-25-2020, 11:34 AM   #41
kevbrim
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
kev:
If you put it up I'll do that . Of course someone else may disagree.


Horses run slower in route races so looking for a competitive internal time of other sprinters in the race is not the answer. An internal time in a route race must be adjusted.

Mitch44
I've got so many races in my brain right now I'm not sure if I could locate it quickly. It has happened a couple times so next time it comes up I'll screen shot it. Could you elaborate on what you mean by "an internal time must be adjusted".


Also
So I'm 62(7 cards) races into my paper betting. I started keeping track once I felt like I had a basic handle of the system and software. I'm still going through the following ups. Think I'm on 77 right now.

I did some number crunching this morning and here is what I've got.

62 races handicapped
21(34%) Winners
22(36%) Losers
19(31%) Passed

I'm doing the $2 Win bets on two horses(a couple times I've thrown in exacta/3 horses)
Total bet $182. Total return $269.8 for ROI of 1.48. I'm pretty excited about that!
BUT. Most of the ROI is from 2 highly profitable cards.
5 winning cards (3 of which were basically break even, 1 of those if it were not for winning 3 of last 4 would have been ugly)
2 losing cards.

So I know its my money and I got to do what I decide to do. But in your opinions should I keep doing some paper bets to work on consistency or go ahead and jump in. 4 of the cards were with the example databases and 3 were working along with live races.
In the live races I would have bet 44 and returned 48. With 2 losing cards and the one I salvaged with 3 of last 4. I think I probably just answered my own question. Haha.
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Old 07-25-2020, 12:04 PM   #42
Mitch44
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Kev:

Horses run slower paces in route races and cutting back in distance it can run faster. Sartin had a couple formulas for this, one appeared in the original Pace Line manual and later came he came up with another. I generally use the latter one

He said to adjust each Fraction by -2/5th faster and cut the beaten lengths in half. Many forget about the beaten lengths in this. To simplify this a horse is leading at 6F (second call) in a route run in 1:12.0, you deduct 6/ 5th's. E.g. on lead in a route ran in 112:0 the adjustment would be minus 6/5ths or 1 second plus 1/5 which = 110.4 or 110.80(hundreds). Than compared that to the other contenders to see if it can be competitive, if not it gets tossed.

This is handled by the program, a more simplified way to do is to pick the route line with the fastest internal time. I use both techniques.
Keep in mind that Sartin said; " Its more accurate to extract that to project." The reason is two fold; 1. with extractions the horse has actually ran that fast and 2. because of the deceleration factor projecting is a crapshoot or hap hazard at best. Horses don't neatly run according to "Sartin Downs". No one can predict where that deceleration will take place. Horses that can win at 8F get beat at 1/116 which is why races are carded by different distances to give every horse a chance of winning. There are ways to get a rough idea but it is by no means completely accurate.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 07-25-2020 at 12:06 PM.
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Old 07-25-2020, 01:21 PM   #43
Mitch44
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Kev:

I would say go ahead and go for it, reason being 3 or 4 years or plus you'll still be learning about Sartin. So at what point is the right point? Go for it, do post mortems on your loses to learn. Start off small and make larger bets with winnings after each cycle. Manage your money.

There are those that never get all this and give it up, myself the knowledge came after many years to really understand Sartin material. His material isn't an easy read and in many cases his writing doesn't follow a logical sequence. We also tend to make it harder than it really is. Some just are quitters while the most fail to accept new ideas. Without an open mind your doomed from the start, far too many are not adaptable and tend to reside in the past. Get rid of the baggage and keep an open mind.

BLBL is there isn't a lot of instant gratification with Sartin concepts etc. The present RDSS far exceeds past techniques etc. Its about as fast tracked as it can get, all these figures initially were done by hand with a calculator. That did give a foundation of understanding, now some just see numbers or ranking but can't grasp them. Those old timers seem to do much better and are winners, they benefit greatly from that apprenticeship they served. They also tend to be the winners on this site, such as LT1, Richie Mathie, Richie P., Ted, Bill V. who is no longer with us, etc.

Its human nature not to try new things because of failure, jump in. Jumping in here isn't like not being able to swim and being thrown into a pool. This won't kill you. Go for it.

Mitch44
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Old 07-25-2020, 03:43 PM   #44
kevbrim
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Thanks Mitch for the encouragement. I'm doing Saratoga today. Question about DTV

I'll have to figure out how to post pictures. I'll describe. So I'm down to my top 5 contenders. 4 of the have a -1 DTV and one of them has a +18 DTV. How do I interpret the large spread in those numbers? Or is it not a big deal.
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Old 07-25-2020, 04:45 PM   #45
Ted Craven
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Originally Posted by kevbrim View Post
Thanks Mitch for the encouragement. I'm doing Saratoga today. Question about DTV

I'll have to figure out how to post pictures. I'll describe. So I'm down to my top 5 contenders. 4 of the have a -1 DTV and one of them has a +18 DTV. How do I interpret the large spread in those numbers? Or is it not a big deal.
Hey, my 2 cents - simply, one of those horses ran it's most representative race against a slow track (slow times) that day: +18. So, to compare it best with the others horses who most representative lines were all hovering around normal ( 0 DTV, give or take 1 point = close to normal) by letting the program use only half of the first 15 DTV point of that slow +18 horse (i.e. with the Default settings of 50% DTV and min/max DTV of -15/+15). So, with those settings, that horse's times would be sped up by the time value of max +15 divided by 2 (i.e. 50%) or 7.5 points - whatever the time value of those points is, depending on distance of the paceline selected.

Let the program do the equalization, once you've decided that particular line is best for that horse. This is how sometimes longer priced horses get elevated into consideration, for Win or for verticals: it looks slow, but only because EVERY runner from that day's same distance structure and surface's races ran slow. Put that horse on a faster inherent surface and see how he compares to the others with +-1 DTV.

Again, my 2 cents! Good luck.

Ted
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Old 07-25-2020, 05:58 PM   #46
Mitch44
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I agree with Ted Kev. ,that is if your settings are set at -15 & +15.

The program will adjust any variant, therefore I like to view it as compared to my other contenders and in this case it appears out of the norm as compared to other contenders. It may be legit and than again it may not.There is no harm at looking for another line due to the fact it is aberrant as compared to your other contenders. Many times a horse will come up by using more than one line. If it doesn't have another line than just trust the program. As Ted said the program should handle this situation.

The program has a safety feature built in by Sartin studies of using only 50% of the adjustment, earlier programs used 100% and in most cases made a horse a real contender when it wasn't.

Mitch44
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