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Old 07-26-2018, 08:33 AM   #1
Lythande
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28 July 2018 SAR (Saturday)

Ok, pulled in a data file for this track and date, as it was the furthest ahead I could find for Saratoga. 11 races, 4 of them are Stakes. I'm going to try to focus on a MSW, a Claim, an ALW, and a Stakes. Here's the card:

1) 5.5f TURF MSW85k 2yo - 14 entries

2) 1-1/16m InnerTURF Clm25000 3up - 11 entries

3) 1-1/8m MC40000 3&up - 9 entries

4) 6f [S](F)Alw77000b 3&up - 10 entries

5) 6f MSW85k 2yo - 1 entries

6) 1m InnerTURF Alw87000b 3&up 14 entries

7) 6.5f Stakes 3yo - 7 entries
Amstrdam-G3 / Amsterdam S-G3 / purse 200k

8) 8f Stakes 3&up - 7 entries
AGVndbH-G1 / Alfred C. Vanderbilt - G1 / purse 350k

9) 1-3/8m InnerTURF Stakes 4&up - 9 entries
BwlnGrn-G2 / Bowling Green S-G2 / purse 250k

10) 1-1/8m Stakes 3yo - 5 entries
JimDandy-G2 / purse 600k

11) 1-1/8m TURF (F)OC80000b 3yo - 14 entries


Ooops, have to get ready for work. Will continue later.

Last edited by Ted Craven; 07-26-2018 at 09:35 AM. Reason: correct the date
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Old 07-26-2018, 11:51 AM   #2
Lythande
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Race 5 has 11 (eleven) entries. My bad
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Old 07-26-2018, 01:28 PM   #3
Bill V.
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Jim Dandy

The feature Jim Dandy is only a five horse field , There might be a price , Lets see the tote board.
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Old 07-26-2018, 03:34 PM   #4
Lythande
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Hey, when you guys start to analyze a race card, what do you prefer? Straight through from first to last? Skip around based on easiest / hardest, largest / smallest, some other criteria?

Last edited by Lythande; 07-26-2018 at 03:36 PM. Reason: Fixed some grammar. Cell phone faux pas
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Old 07-26-2018, 03:47 PM   #5
Bill V.
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one race at a time

Hello

I take them as they come up

Here is an example - So far today

Race 3 Saratoga - No Bet

Race 5 Newbury England - lost

Race 4 Delaware - No Bet

Race 5 Delaware - Won ( DH)

Race 7 Laurel No Bet

Race 6 Saratoga No Bet

I look at races that are coming up next on the tote feeds

Usually, it's bouncing between Saratoga, Del Mar, Laurel Parx Delaware

Last edited by Bill V.; 07-26-2018 at 03:50 PM.
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Old 07-26-2018, 05:43 PM   #6
Lythande
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Wow Bill. How much time do you take to analyze a race and identify your contender(s)?
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Old 07-26-2018, 06:13 PM   #7
Bill V.
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Not much

Hello

Well

Not much time at all, However that comes from many years of practice.
My work is mostly with Phase 1 now. For most of my 20 years experience
I used the best of the last three speed ratings, I picked a line for every horse
in every race, I eliminated down to no more than 5 contenders, then bet my two choices of the top 3 BLBL, then VDC.

I never really looked that close to the other screens except for maybe the Early/Late (TPR) screen and the segments screen.
It used to take me about 15 to 20 minutes per race.

Once I caught on and migrated back to the basics and with the guidance of FTL's guidelines. Contender and line selection time was reduced.

I quickly eliminate almost all the horses from win contention. You will probably never see me post a longshot anymore or a big exacta or other horizontal bets because I usually eliminate most longer odds horses.

I am much more interested in the pools and current form
these days, I play for a very high win percentage and bet much more per race to get my rebates

I would say basically I can do a race and have total confidence to make a bigger bet after about 7 minutes.

I consider my self very well versed with phase 1. I can see form cycles and the match up just with the EP -LP relationships It really helps using + 0 and (0) lines -- Colored coded in RDSS

Experience of 20 years, and lots more common sense and understanding handicapping way more than my early years has cut down the workload.

But I have never stopped practicing

Good Skill
to you
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Old 07-27-2018, 09:19 AM   #8
Lythande
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Hey, Bill, do you have a copy of Recreational Handicapping by James Quinn? It has an interesting chapter on betting.
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Old 07-27-2018, 01:26 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lythande View Post
Hey, when you guys start to analyze a race card, what do you prefer? Straight through from first to last? Skip around based on easiest / hardest, largest / smallest, some other criteria?
I have certain spot plays I look for at a price.
I am selective as to which races I will play.
If the race matches my criteria, I will bet it.
It doesn't matter to me what type of race it is.
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Old 07-27-2018, 04:50 PM   #10
Bill V.
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Betting Mantra

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lythande View Post
Hey, Bill, do you have a copy of Recreational Handicapping by James Quinn? It has an interesting chapter on betting.
Hi

I probably read or had the book at one time, During one of my first meetings with Doc. I was thinking I would impress him and rattle off all the handicapping books I owned. His reply to my list? 3 words = Throw Them Away.
Handicapping books are a good tool but Doc said they generally were too mainstream,

He published this in follow up #83 Its been my basic approach ever since

Name:  betting.PNG
Views: 203
Size:  138.5 KB


My day yesterday Profit was small but I am just biding my time

Name:  biding.PNG
Views: 238
Size:  17.8 KB

Last edited by Bill V.; 07-27-2018 at 04:56 PM.
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