SAR for Wed 8/15/18

[rdiam]

As some of you may know, recent surgery has put me on the shelf for a while, so I will be unable to attend the meet-up at SAR later this week. However, I am still able to bet the races, and decided to post a stream of consciousness of my handicapping this week, with your indulgence.

SAR R1 (1:00): scratch 3,5. Low level claimer for those who have never won 2 races. Only 4 runners.

1 -- 3rd after layoff, last 2 have been consistent, should try for lead, could wire if can hold on

6 -- stretching out by 0.5f, running for lowest claim tag, second after layoff, positive jockey switch to Santana, should press by 4f pole, most likely to take lead if #1 falters in stretch

2 -- Blinkers OFF, dropping from allowance race, first after layoff, positive jockey switch to Jose Ortiz, maiden win from 8/4/17 took a lot out of her, been off 272 days, wins only if runs back to that 8/4/17 race

4 -- switches from route to sprint, drops from Allowance rance, first time in claiming race, first after 258 day layoff, jockey switch to Franco, projects as most likely winner if in any kind of form

Strategy: any of 4 can win, but unless getting 4-1 likely no value

[rdiam]

Race 1 6 1/2F Dirt
Purse: $32000.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
4 Cool as You Like Manuel Franco 5.10 2.90
1 Our Whim Kendrick Carmouche 3.20
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$1 Exacta 4/1 7.30
$1 Trifecta 0.00
$1 Superfecta 0.00
Scratched: 3 Impazible Creek, 5 Paranoia

[Bill V.]

Take care of yourself Richard
Wish you could have made it but get well

Good Skill with your Spa selections

Bill

[Lt1]

Very nice write up and call Richard. Sorry you can't make the Spa
Tim

[rdiam]

Race 2: (1:33): scratch 7, baby race with 3 FTS

6 -- 2nd time lasix and 2nd career race, stretching out from 5.5f, projected winner if runs back to July 25 race

2 -- second after layoff, negative jockey switch to Cancel, has shown nothing in 3 starts

3 -- second time lasix and 2nd career race, dropping from non-graded stakes, jockey switch to Jose Ortiz, projects to run second if runs back to July 15 race

4 -- second career race, jockey switch to Fragoso

1 -- quality jockey trainer combo

5 -- ok jockey, weak trainer

8 -- poor jockey and trainer

Strategy: unless can get 3-1 on the 6 or the 3, probably best to pass

[rdiam]

Race 2 6F Dirt
Purse: $75000.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
6 Elegant Zip Manuel Franco 3.70 2.30 2.10
3 Tossup Jose L. Ortiz 2.60 2.20
5 Miss Flambe Kendrick Carmouche 3.10
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$1 Exacta 6/3 3.45
$1 Quinella 3,6 1.85
$1 Trifecta 6/3/5 14.90
$1 Superfecta 6/3/5/4 71.50
$1 Double 4/6 5.20
Scratched: 7 Mats Checkride

[Jeebs]

Short field, but #4 looks to be a short priced standout. Today starts the new form cycle. It's most recent line was over an off track and went very early according to the E/L difference graph. Line 2 is out of a very fast DTV, which took me to Line 3. The balance readout and E/L sticks suggest to me that this one will use its energy well. Doesn't have to be on the lead, and if Mott has him ready, looks many lengths better than the rest of these.






Best of luck to all!

[rdiam]

SAR r3 (2:06): nw3 allowance, 5 runners

1 -- stretching to 7f, first race after 67 day layoff and first after claim, jockey switch to Saez, should be in contention at 4f, has best stretch fraction to contend if runs back to Jun 9 race

4 -- stretching to 7f, first after 48 day layoff, contender if runs back to May 31 race

5 -- stretching to 7f, second after layoff, probably needs to have lead by 4f to win, contender if runs back to July 25 race

2 -- stretching to 7f, second after layoff, jockey switch to Castellano, needs to run back to May 11 race to contend for win

3 -- stretching to 7f, lightly raced an improving, first after 48 day layoff, projects as winner if runs back to June 28 race

Strategy: will pass on the 2, bet any of remaining 4 going off 4-1 or better

[rdiam]

Race 3 7F Dirt
Purse: $92000.00 Fast
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
2 No Need to AppealJavier Castellano10.80 4.70 2.40
1 Breaking Bread Luis Saez 4.20 2.70
4 Greatreviews Jose L. Ortiz 2.40
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$1 Exacta 2/1 20.10
$1 Trifecta 2/1/4 43.50
$1 Superfecta 2/1/4/5 117.75
$1 Double 6/2 10.50
$1 Pick 3 4/6/2 24.80
Scratched: None

[rdiam]

SAR r4 (2:40): scratch 3,4,5

1 -- coming from starter race, first time in claiming race, will contend early, but cannot excuse last => toss for win

2 -- cuts back 0.5f, has won at this level, 3rd after layoff, will be coming late => win contender

7 -- cuts back 0.5f, coming from starter race, 4th after layoff, jockey switch to Franco => win contender

6 -- dirt to turf, cuts back 0.5f, coming from starter race, lightly raced and improving, first after 66 day layoff, probable winner if runs back to Jun 10 race

8 -- dirt to turf, route to sprint, first time in claiming race, big rise in purse, jockey switch to Reyes => too slow for this group, TOSS

Strategy: win contenders are 2,7,6, win bet any at 3-1 or better, maybe box 3 in exacta