RDSS 2.0 E/L data to look at

[Bill Lyster]

Barb,

Since we do not exactly know what we are looking for or exactly what might become inportant, I would suggest recording the % number opposite the double red horse. When the number equals or exceeds 62% the horse is considered as a Dominant Early horse, or like Ted said recently, somewhat similar to a horse that is 0-0 on the segments screen (wins both of the first two fractions)

never know when you will find a nugget.

All the best,

bill

[barb craven]

Thanks Bill. Actually I did that. there were 6, but none over the high 50's. I didn't put that down because I didn't know whether it would be relevant at this time. I didn't have much time to spend with Ted about what to do with this new program, so I recorded everything I thought would help at a later time.
Have a great day
Barb

[Bill Lyster]

Barb (and others)

I am gradually working my way through the data base of races that Ted put up last year and among the most startling results I observed was at Mountaineer.

I did all of the non maiden races, total 48. I did not consider any horse who had been away from the races 270 days or more or who had not set foot on the track in about 40 days.

At Mountaineer, the highest rated early horse (the one whose % is highlighted in red in both the percentage and Accum columns) was a TERRIBLE bet. Ergo, at this track!!!, a great eliminator.

In 48 races it finished worse than FOURTH 32 times! It finished first 4 times, 2nd - 5 times 3rd - 3 times and 4th - 4 times; so it was not in the trifecta 36 times out of 48 races - 75%

Mountaineer Race results:
Races won 34
Exactas in top 4: 22
Trifectas in top 4 11
and 4 superfectas cold.

E1 - 11
E2 - 6
L1 - 7
L2 - 10


Some of the other tracks show this Double Red trait but not to the extent apparent at Mountaineer last year.

[cdax]

Bill, quick question for ya,

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

I did not consider any horse who had been away from the races 270 days or more or who had not set foot on the track in about 40 days.

Are you saying that you eliminate those horses prior to doing the E/L 2 (aka NewPace)?

Chris

[Bill Lyster]

yes on both accounts.

I don't have the exact layoff figures for win percentage but 270 works for me. Some of the data base guys can tell you that only 5% or less winners come from horses returning longer than __ days, so the number you use COULD BE a lot less. Test before you decide to change it.

I should hilight that eliminating horses gone 270 or more works for most of the top three placings in the race (of coures small fields should be considered exceptions...) eliminating for win only might let you eliminate down into the mid 100's, but some of these horses off mid 100 days may be good enough for place and show still.

Dave Schwartz has some good data on this on his IMPROVING YOUR GAME section. He also has some great stats concerning win rates for horses who have not been on the track for a work out or race within the last 30 days and other good stuff.

PS to all of you out there. The data base that Ted compiled allows you to work hundreds of races all over the country from April to October of last year, without any added expense. Very good way to experiment with the EL 2.0 data or any other idea you might want to test.


Bill

[seattlesnake]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Barb (and others)

I am gradually working my way through the data base of races that Ted put up last year and among the most startling results I observed was at Mountaineer.

I did all of the non maiden races, total 48. I did not consider any horse who had been away from the races 270 days or more or who had not set foot on the track in about 40 days.

At Mountaineer, the highest rated early horse (the one whose % is highlighted in red in both the percentage and Accum columns) was a TERRIBLE bet. Ergo, at this track!!!, a great eliminator.

In 48 races it finished worse than FOURTH 32 times! It finished first 4 times, 2nd - 5 times 3rd - 3 times and 4th - 4 times; so it was not in the trifecta 36 times out of 48 races - 75%

Mountaineer Race results:
Races won 34
Exactas in top 4: 22
Trifectas in top 4 11
and 4 superfectas cold.

E1 - 11
E2 - 6
L1 - 7
L2 - 10


Some of the other tracks show this Double Red trait but not to the extent apparent at Mountaineer last year.

Hi Bill,

Thats a small sample IMO but a good base to start with.. ... did u happen to check their E/L Diff & Med E..? maybe a bit high? how many were sprints and rtes...

Here is tonites MNR.. and theres a few favorites in here that maybe a good bet against based on your report.....

[seattlesnake]

cont.











Good Luck ...

[seattlesnake]

[Bill Lyster]

Jesse:

because the numbers were so strong I did not look at anything else you asked about. I looked at all nonmaiden races between Sept 21 and Oct 1 2010, FWIW



Bill

[Bill Lyster]

More research from a data base of old races. Here's what I have so far:
#races: 474
wins: 345
Exactas: 244
Trifectas: 135

haven't recorded all the payouts so no ROI yet.

If the contenders were labeled E1-best early; E2-2nd best, etc. I would get;
E1 - 106
E2 - 73
L1 - 86
L2 - 80

The highest early contender (RR) finished as follows:
1st: 75 - of these 26 had early advantage % of 62 or greater
2nd: 82 - of these 17 had early advantage % of 62 or greater
3rd: 50 - of these 14 had early advantage % of 62 or greater
4th: 46 - of these 9 had early advantage % of 62 or greater
Off the board: 217 - of these 41 had early advantage % of 62 or greater
total: 470 - - - - - 107
(total sample is 4 short)

62% representd a Dominant early horse in the Early/Late terminology, but these statistics developed over a sample of 12 tracks don't seem to bear this out. conversely the highest early horse only hits somewhere in the top three places 43% in my sample study. I am not finding anything remarkable about the horse with the RR label except that it WONT hit the board 57% of the time and only WINS 16% of the time.

Best regards,

Bill