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Old 08-27-2011, 07:07 PM   #1
rmath
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Rdss2 & NewPace

I now have a total of 200 races, that I have run thru RDSS2.
Top vdc 83
2nd vdc 42
3rd vdc 27
4th vdc 20
total vdc top 4: 172 wins with 136 exactas in top 4

New Pace:
E 1: 53
E 2 :26
L1 : 43
L2 : 29
total 151 wins with 96 exactas.

I made no preliminary eliminations for any reason. I sorted the contenders after picking the best of last 3 comparable pacelines using the line scores to get it down to the final 5. From these I eliminated any horse with a 5 vdc rating. This eliminated 7 wins and 19 exactas.
There were 11 wins in New Pace that were eliminated by the use of line scores. One at 53.80, 7 were between 20.00 and 26.60, and 3 were to low to bet.
I will let each of you draw your own conclusions from these findings.
rmath
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Old 08-27-2011, 08:39 PM   #2
pilot
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Thanks for posting as it is greatly appreciatied.

Wayne
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Old 08-27-2011, 10:00 PM   #3
Ted Craven
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Richard,

Thanks for this work!

Are you able to report the average mutuel in each of the 8 categories you mention (4 VDC, 4 NP).


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Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-28-2011 at 02:22 PM.
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Old 08-28-2011, 01:20 PM   #4
rmath
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Ted, Here are the figures you requested.
1 vdc 7.48 31 were below 3/2
2 vdc 8.32 15 below 3/2
3 vdc 9.06 5 below 3/2
4 vdc 11.12 3 below 3/2

E 1 8.03 24 below 3/2
E 2 9.70 10 below 3/2
L 1 7.37 14 below 3/2
L 2 9.65 5 below 3/2

Hope this helps.
rmath
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Old 08-28-2011, 01:36 PM   #5
rmath
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PS. I forgot to include one other fact.
1 vdc 27/83 were 3/1 or higher
2vdc 13/42 were 3/1 or above
3 vdc 12/29 were 3/1 or above
4 vdc 8/20 were 3/1 or above

E 1 12/53 E 2 10/26
L 1 13/43 L 2 14/29 3/1 or above

This would give you 60 wins in 200 races assuming a play in each race at 3/1 or higher.

Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-28-2011 at 02:20 PM. Reason: corrected 4th VDC stats
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Old 08-29-2011, 02:15 AM   #6
BJennet
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Thanks/comments

Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
I now have a total of 200 races, that I have run thru RDSS2.
Top vdc 83
2nd vdc 42
3rd vdc 27
4th vdc 20
total vdc top 4: 172 wins with 136 exactas in top 4

New Pace:
E 1: 53
E 2 :26
L1 : 43
L2 : 29
total 151 wins with 96 exactas.

I made no preliminary eliminations for any reason. I sorted the contenders after picking the best of last 3 comparable pacelines using the line scores to get it down to the final 5. From these I eliminated any horse with a 5 vdc rating. This eliminated 7 wins and 19 exactas.
There were 11 wins in New Pace that were eliminated by the use of line scores. One at 53.80, 7 were between 20.00 and 26.60, and 3 were to low to bet.
I will let each of you draw your own conclusions from these findings.
rmath
Hi Rich,

Much thanks for the ongoing testing. I was amazed, although maybe I shouldn't have been, by the similarity of the VDC results with those I got for TE a couple of years ago in a 1200-race survey. Although these two factors are not completely correlated, I'm beginning to believe the correlation is much closer than I had realized. Also, VDC appears to have slightly better ordinality (higher-ranked horses win more often than lower) than TE. For example, both produced a combined win of about 60% for the top two places, but VDC divides them .41,.21, where TE (at least in my survey) had them .37, .25. If the average mutuel holds at $7.48, this is better than the $7.00 I found for TE. Also, if this stat holds up over a larger sample of races, it would mean a flat-bet profit against all races for VDC #1 - pretty mind-blowing.

The results for NP are also similar to what Bill Lyster and others have posted.

Just a couple of questions: re filters, were there really no filters used to test either of these methods? That's what it sounds like.

Also, you say you used the line scores to sort out the top 5 for VDC, and then chose the 'best' 3 pacelines. Was this mechanical or was some judgement involved. If it was mechanical, what was the selection factor?

Re the 3/1 and 3/2 odds for grouping winners, what is the significance of using these particular odds?

Thanks again for all your work.

Cheers,

B Jennet
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Old 08-29-2011, 10:18 AM   #7
rmath
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Filters

B.J., In answer to your ?s
1) I did not use any filters at all, I wanted to give both programs an equal and fair test.
2) pacelines were chosen exactly as DOC suggested in all of the Follow Ups starting around issue 70. He said to use the best of the last 3 comparable & use the line with the best adjusted SR. If you have doubts about two or more lines, put both in and choose the one the program likes the best.
This procedure has worked very well for me over the past 20+ years.
3) the use of 3/2 odds only has significance for me in that if the top or second vdc horse is at or below these odds I will probably be looking to pass this race. Too many win at low odds.
3/1 was used because above this range I can make a good profit. I could have used 7/2 or 4/1. I rarely play more than 3 races a day at any given track. I run all the playable races according to DOCs guidelines but my actual betting is reserved for the ones I feel I have the best chance to make a profit in.
Hope this answers your questions.
rmath
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Old 08-29-2011, 10:37 AM   #8
rmath
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Ps.

The 200 races in my test were taken from 8 different tracks.
I like to run only the tracks and races that have a minimum of 7 or more horses entered. This seems to give a truer picture of the programs capabilities.
Personally I prefer races with 8 to 10 entrants, but this is not always possible.
In my 200 race test I did NOT record any races that had less than 6 official starters,and there were not very many of these. I think the results would be unrealistic if any of the testers only ran races with 6 or less horses.
This is only my opinion and is not to be taken as a judgement of anyone else.
We are all trying to help one another to improve our results and enjoy this sport we all love.
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Old 08-29-2011, 11:06 AM   #9
Ted Craven
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Thanks again Richard!

One thing to remember regarding V/DC: there are frequently tied ranks, e.g. 2 horses ranked 1, or 2 horses ranked 2 or 3, etc. Up to 50% of the time? This makes direct comparisons to factors which always have discreet ranks (such as Total Energy, or NewPace) a little more fuzzy.

So, it might make this V/DC related study a bit clearer to know how you dealt with those ties when counting the number of #1s and#2s etc.

For example, how would V/DC in this race be ranked in your tabulation process?

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Bye the bye, this race is a perfect example illustrating the distinction Doc tried to make between ranks and tiers. The #1 and #6 are in the same exact tier, both for BL/BL and for V/DC (the display order is goverened by the Total Energy tie-breaker) and should be considered equal on our odds line. The idea is to break these ties (if you must) according to bet-time odds. The 3rd listed #5 horse is effectively equal to the top 2.

Eliminate a low odds horse (from Win betting) below a certain threshold if it does not justify its public odds, compared to your betting line. The #1 at 3/2 (1.4 - 1) is no better (though also no worse) than the other horses in our top 3. For Win, we are offered better odds on the net of the #6 and #5, and the #6 should also be bet to Place as well. The #1 belongs in an Exacta box.

I believe these instructions (more or less) will also be found among Doc's words written in Follow Ups #70 and forward.

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Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-29-2011 at 11:09 AM.
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Old 08-29-2011, 12:53 PM   #10
rmath
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my play

1) eliminate the 4 , 5th vdc
2) hide the 1 , odds to low
3) bet the 5 & 6 to win and the 6 to place
This would be the preferred play by Docs guidelines.
Personally I would only bet the 6 horse win & place as I prefer to bet no more than two at 4/1 minimum, or one horse win and place when the odds are good as in this case.
I rarely play the exotics, and yes I agree totally with Teds assesment to Docs guidelines.
When I do play an exacta I prefer both of my top 2 or 3 in case of ties to be above 4/1

Last edited by rmath; 08-29-2011 at 01:01 PM. Reason: further comments
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