** RDSS2 Beta2.5-11 (Dec 21) **

[Ted Craven]

Gene,

I'm afraid I really don't understand your question. I sent you an email, give me a call.

yours,

Ted

[torrejon]

Congratulations Ted !!! It looks AWESOME !!!

I truly admire the passion that you put into this, and it absolutely reflects on every improvement !!! Your software and your commitment, compares to NONE !!!!

I'm looking forward to see the video tutorials !!!

Your friend !!!

Rafael.-

[LarryAllen]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Hello Folks!

RDSS 2.0 Beta 2 is now available to download and use. If you are signed up for the RDSS2 Beta Testing group, you can go here to get the Installer and the Release Notes:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8177 ( <-- Note: this thread is where to report BUGS or ask Questions too!)

If you are a subscriber to RDSS V0.99.2 (the current 'official' version), and would like to get in on RDSS2 Beta2, you are most welcomed - just send me an email or Private Message!

I will be making some intro videos in the next few days. Exciting stuff:

- automated Paceline Selection
- automated Running Styles
- more 'move' markups on Past Performances
- exports to Excel models and older Sartin programs
- Projected Pace
- more ...

Enjoy

Ted

Hi
I am an RDSS subscriber and would like to try out your newest version.

Larry Lyle

LarryAllen
75106622


lawrencelyle@att.net

[Ted Craven]

This update is partly some new features (Composite Speed Rating, Excel export update) and partly a collection of bug fixes (Toteboard ) and changes (Evaluation program and Registration system).

Download Here:

http://www.rdss2.com/r2b2.5 (Note: you need to either be a RDSS Subscriber or ask to try the free 30 day RDSS Evaluation - just write).


Videos

Here is a video showing some of the features of this version, including Registering and the Data Centre: http://www.sartinmethodology.com/vid...ng-Started.mp4
(more to follow ...)


Release Notes for Earlier RDSS2 Versions - please read (these constitute the written documentation for RDSS2, so far)

Beta 2.5: http://www.SartinMethodology.com/pub...ease_Notes.pdf
Beta 2.0: http://www.SartinMethodology.com/pub...ease_Notes.pdf


New Features in the Current Version

1. Composite Speed Rating (CSR) added to BL/BL screen. The CSR was formerly only displayed on the NewPace screen, though technically not a part of NewPace. It is a weighting of the Adjusted Speed Ratings from the last 4 usable lines, regardless of distance, surface, race conditions or finish. It is not dependent on a single line, but rather a weighting of the last 4 usable lines.

The weighting is as follows: 100% of the last line SR + 62% of the average of the last 2 lines SR + 38% of the average of the last 3 lines SR + 24% of the average of the last 4 lines SR. Thus the last line SR has a major weighting in the CSR, with the weighting declining for older lines. Thus, if the horse ran well in the last line and faded in the stretch for whatever reason (wrong surface for the horse, wrong distance, inappropriate pace, trouble), since CSR uses ONLY final time Adjusted SR, that last line poor finish will hurt the horse's CSR. For any number of reasons, such a last line may be forgiven and the horse may indeed be a contender today, though the CSR may rank poorly. Then again, if the horse has run fairly in its recent history, the CSR will rank it fairly among others, for better or for worse.

From statistical work done by Dick Mathie (rmath) the Winner of a selected subset of races has a Top 4 CSR figure approximately 85% of the time (closer to 80% allowing for the occasional tied ranks), with the Winner ranking Top 2 approximately 60% of the time. Further, when combined with the VDC rank (which includes ties) the combined VDC - CSR rank pairs of 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1 account for approximately 60% of winners (again, from a specific subset of race types and field sizes).

The result is interesting enough to warrant inclusion in a ranking set for further analysis, in my view. The CSR rank is also included in the updated Excel Export Model template (see Point #2 on Excel Export)

Since Dick Mathie has done such a large amount of work on proving some of the initial statistical validity of this number, I will encourage him to discuss it further and explain what limits he used (e.g. race types, field sizes) in his studies. Also, to correct any mistakes I may have cited in the statistics above. The NewPace screen still shows the actual CSR number (to 2 decimal places) and now ranks it as well. The CSR rank alone (including colour coding) is now shown on the Entries Summary screen, on the BL/BL Analyis screen and in the Excel Export.





2. Excel Export File. A new Export Template file (\rdss2\Models\Templates\MasterTemplate2.xlsx) is provided for a new export file format. The new export format is compatible with the original one - the extra columns exported are simply added to the end of the existing defined columns. The new Template file adds the captions for the new columns exported (including CSR) and also adds some new statistical calculations in the Summary section (now found after Row 302). New stats include % Rank1, %Rank2, %Rank3, %Rank4, %Rank 1or2, %Rank 5+. Use this new Template file to export from Analysis screens for Model making purposes, or for any other factor research you may want to conduct.

The Excel Export file is now sorted the same way the Analysis screen is sorted where you exported it from. A reminder: to export Analysis data to an Excel file, click the Export icon at the right side of every Analysis screen. Since Analysis data can be separated into Primary, Secondary and Non- Contender groups, these same groups are now maintained in the export file. The Excel files exported are still located on the folder named \rdss2\Models\.


Changes

1. Registration / 30 Day Evaluation / 2010 Demo Database. I made a number of internal changes to the Registration system. This new RDSS2 version should install and load up normally over existing installs - your Expiry Date, Active Status and Modules (NewPace, if licensed) should all appear as they were before. When your RDSS Subscription is within 30 days of renewal, you'll find a friendly new message on the Desktop screen reminding you of how many days you have left and a button to reach the Subscription renewal webpage. I will still send you a reminder email about renewing your Subscription. As usual, Unlimited data users do not pay an annual Subscription fee if they maintain Unlimited data for half of the previous or upcoming years.



If you are evaluating RDSS, the RDSS Desktop message will remind you of how many days remain in the 30 day evaluation period. There is also a link to download a Demo Database for use during the evaluation period. (New 2011 and 2012 Demo Databases with ~5000 races in each should be available sometime in January 2013 - that's ~15,000 races over the past 3 years for your consideration).

UNLIKE PREVIOUSLY, when you could anonymously evaluate RDSS using a Demo Database (forever) - now when evaluating RDSS, you must Register the software in order to use the Demo Database (or any database of races). Evaluators using only the Demo Database need not open a TrackMaster account, although TrackMaster continues to offer a 'money back satisfaction guarantee' for the first 30 days - no questions asked (think about it - if you are serious about your RDSS Evaluation, why not order up Unlimited Data and ask for all the help you can get!? If RDSS did not impress you, or the Customer Support or website members not offer to help you, or you were not intrigued with the possibilities given sufficient time to become proficient - just ask TrackMaster for your money back! Once ...)

Now, you can Register RDSS during the 30 day Evaluation period using your email address and your Name and you will then be able to access any of the Demo Databases (2011 and 2012 when they are available, shortly). When you are ready to open a TrackMaster account, just enter the account User ID and Password and you can download current race cards. RDSS will now not let you view any race cards unless you first Register it (either with a valid email address or with a valid TrackMaster account ID).


Bug Fixes

1. The Toteboard data stream has been reinstated. BRIS Supertote (where RDSS gets its feed) changed a small element of its tote data structure which knocked the stream offline for RDSS. No other changes have been made to the tote system (though big plans are afoot for 2013!).

2. When loading Scratches and Changes for Canadian tracks, the correct webpage is now accessed (though we'll have to wait until next Spring to see them :-)


Please give any feedback, questions or problems in this Thread. Thank you all for your support over the year, and very best wishes for a Happy Christmas - good health and fortune for the coming New Year!

Ted

[rmath]

Guidelines: Only races used were the ones with:
1) 8 or more entries
2) all horses Must have at least 3 races that are rateable.

A ) enter a line ( best of last 3 COMPARABLE) for every horse.
use the ADJ.srs to pick the pacelines, when in doubt enter 2 or more lines and eliminate down to one line using Primary Line Score

B) Eliminate down to 5 final contenders using Primary Line Scores.

RESULTS from 681 test races
593 winners were in the top 5 VDC and also the top 5 CSR 87% of all winners
35 winners were not in top 5 of Either VDC OR CSR 5%
53 winners were only in the top 5 VDC or CSR 7.8%

Using the guidelines above in most playable races I ended up with 4 or less contenders.
If anyone has any questions or would like a further breakdown on any of the final contenders, please ask and I will be glad to go into more detail.

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year to all.
Rmath

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by rmath

Guidelines: Only races used were the ones with:
1) 8 or more entries
2) all horses Must have at least 3 races that are rateable.

A ) enter a line ( best of last 3 COMPARABLE) for every horse.
use the ADJ.srs to pick the pacelines, when in doubt enter 2 or more lines and eliminate down to one line using Primary Line Score

B) Eliminate down to 5 final contenders using Primary Line Scores.

RESULTS from 681 test races
593 winners were in the top 5 VDC and also the top 5 CSR 87% of all winners
35 winners were not in top 5 of Either VDC OR CSR 5%
53 winners were only in the top 5 VDC or CSR 7.8%

Using the guidelines above in most playable races I ended up with 4 or less contenders.
If anyone has any questions or would like a further breakdown on any of the final contenders, please ask and I will be glad to go into more detail.

Merry Christmas & Hap
py New Year to all.
Rmath

Rmath...
Happy Holidays...

I appreciate your research immensely...and you peaked my interest in your stats...


My questions....of the races that you did not get the winner in the top 87% or thereabouts...

A)how many were #1 EP

B) how many were #1 or #2 LP

C)how many were #1 TT......

Thanks in advance...

Great research...

[rmath]

From the 53 winners that were among the final contenders but were not considered win contenders by my guidelines
16 were 1 or 2 LPR
11 were 1 Epr
3 were 1 TT
this gives a total of 30 winners from 681 plays or 4.4%
I hope this answers your question.

My research shows that by limiting my play to only the horses that are dual qualifiers and eliminating all the others the 87% winners remaining can be played and separated by the odds at 2 min to post time.

Most of the winners come from the top 2 final qualifiers that are the lowest vdc ratings.
This is not always 1 & 2 vdc but could be any combination that are dual qualifers.
Most races I end up with 2 or 3 final contenders and they are separated by odds at post time.

rmath

[rmath]

Lone Speed, when you asked about #1 EP, and #1 or 2 LP were you asking about EPR & LPR or were you asking about the New Pace rankings?

was talking to a friend and he read your post and thought I may have miss read your question.
Please let me know.
rmath

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by rmath

Lone Speed, when you asked about #1 EP, and #1 or 2 LP were you asking about EPR & LPR or were you asking about the New Pace rankings?

was talking to a friend and he read your post and thought I may have miss read your question.
Please let me know.
rmath

Rmath....

Sorry, I didn't get back to you sooner...holiday stuffs

Never looked at new pace......sorry Dave S....no opinions

Thanks for responding so quickly to my questions....I hope that you are using filters from a database program for these studies as it seems to be a huge time consumption..

Rmath, you got my request correctly, I was referring to #1 Epr and #1LPR...etc..your percentages of win contenders in the top 5 CSR after dual qualifiers ( where have I heard this term before??? ahhh...Dosage system....I must have thrown the ideas in the trash...breed the best and hope for the best.....) are impressive and that's just from looking at a large sample of races without some filters....turf, dirt, sprints, horses moving up---3rd race after layoffs....races where Brohamer talked about average pace-I interpreted this as the first two at the early calls are the final first two finishers......

You seemed to be using V/DC as your main corollary....Are there ways to use filters to separate some group of races or.....are you using Rdss filters of last 3, top energy, best DCL???

I am referring to this:

Turf races---use Total Speed or top two L/er rankings or

use DCL

Sprint races-----use what you used ==top VDC rankings


Route races-----use Total Energy rankings or Total Pace Potential...I am not
sure if the two rankings are the same...


Thanks for your time...

Question for Ted Craven:

Bill V. asked a couple of years ago if Longshot Potential--the horse that overcame the fastest pace of race....be included in RDSS..I see it in the Speculator program ....but was it ever put into RDSS or do we have to use our eyes and make note of the fastest pace...

[rmath]

Happy Holidays to you and your family.
The only filters that I used were races with at least 8 entries and I preferred 5.5f to 8.5f on the dirt or poly.
I only started running turf races in the last few weeks.
I did only about 15 turf races in the 681, and the results are about the same as the dirt races.
I keep my records in a notebook for each track and distance for the WPS horses.
I only track the VDC ranks and the CSR ranks. so when you asked for the different rankings on the loosers I had to go back and check for them.

My main goal was to get at least 85% winners in my final 3 or 4 horses using a combination of VDC & CSR.
I believe my stats show that this is possible.

Will gladly help anyone who is interested in this approach.
rmath