Paceline Selection / Adjusted Speed Rating Query

[Segwin]

From PRX Nov 26, Race 2 - a query from another Thread, initially about the !SAR Workout Form Pattern shown below. Moved to its own thread as the discussion went on from Workout Form Patterns.

[Segwin]

Thanks very much Bill - great information.

With regards to the horse her last race was 159 days but I was giving the horse a second glance due to the good works. I decided against it because of the long layoff and that she was moving up in class where she doesn't belong. I think she ran 6th.

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

I was happy with these results.

I used line 2 for the winner because even though line 1 is a zero race
I excused it because of the 5.5 to 7 furlong " different distance" excuse.

Here is the winner. BTW line 1 and 2 are the same condition
SA for Non Winners of 2 Life. I am not sure why RDSS puts the full conditions in some lines and not all lines ?

[Segwin]

Bill, I'd like to discuss the use of line 1 vs 2.

What I'm seeing is adjusted speed rating of 76 for line one and an adjusted speed rating of 73 for line 2. Using Best Perceptor the pick is line 3 with an adjusted SR of 77.

In just looking at SR for his PP - if we add all the SR together and divide by 7 we come up with a mean of a SR of 75. I'm not sure if 2 points amounts to much of a hill of beans but wouldn't the SR of 76 on line 1, even though it may be a 0, be a better representation of the capabilities of the horse?

(Is 2 points on a SR enough to worry about???)

Should we split this off in a new thread so as not to derail this one Bill?

[Bill V.]

You make a very good case for using line 1.
However the official Methodology guidelines are to use the pace line with the best adjusted speed rating speed rating at a comparable distance surface and competition level.
In on of the follow ups Doc is demonstrating how he uses the F1 pace line
indicator in Validator. He goes by what the program says is the best,
That is kind of what you are doing with the best of the last 3 preceptor,

However Doc does say when there is a difference in sprint distance he advice's clients to consult their own record to determine if those different distance are comparable.

Since there was no way for Doc to know how every track's various distance played out to each other, he devised a kind of one size fits all guideline or
method of using the best of the last 3 adjusted speed ratings

I however feel that I have gathered enough evidence to also follow his guidelines of letting my records tell me when a 5.5 pace line is not comparable
to a 7 furlong race. and to stay within 1 furlong of today's distance.

As far as yesterdays 2nd race I used line 2 because line 1 is a zero race but at 5.5 furlongs. If you look at a confirming pace line, look at its maiden win line 2. It is very close to that effort in total energy, TPR early late speed rating.
It also is at a comparable distance of 6.5 furlongs.

Line 2 also is within 1 furlong of today's distance

I can not see any reason why I should not use line 2.
Terry would you agree with all my other contenders pace lines ?
If so since line 2 places the winner right on top that also supports using the more comparable distance of 6 furlongs

Good Skill
Bill

PS also I want to add all 3 of horse 2 lats 3 races are the same condition
its just that RDSS is adding the N2-L notation to some but not all the lines

[Segwin]

Bill, I need some time to chew on your post. My eyelids are growing heavy and I have a busy day tomorrow. I ask for some time to respond.

I do however look forward to further discussion.

Till then.

[Segwin]

I've reread everything and fully concur Bill. Although new to the methodology the guidelines fit and worked.

[Mark]

I don't wish to sound combative here but for the life of me, I do not know how you can make a serious attempt to handicap a race if you do not make the attempt first of projecting today's pace.
If you do not project the pace of today's race, how can you successfully pick pacelines for the runners?
Did any of you run track or cross country in high school? Do you run for exercise today? Whether you did or didn't let me suggest to you that if you start fast you can't run the whole way at top speed.
You will tire. If you start slow, you will be way behind the leader and chances are if you are not a superb athlete you will never catch up.
Based upon Pedigree, conformation, herd behavior and training techniques, horses have preferred distances at which they excel. They generally will be either a sprinter or a route horse. At peak conditioning, fitness and
soundness they will run most often with a particular running style and are capable of certain times probably best represented by good speed figures.
I utilize The Match Up so the first thing I want to know is what kind of pace is likely in today's race? This group of horses most likely have never competed against each other before but I can tell fairly quickly looking at
the original screen in RDSS2 at what distances, surfaces and against what paces each horse has run their best speed figures against. The program will also tell me the running styles these horses most often display in their races.
If you will go to the Hat Check Blog and look at the thread in which Jim Bradshaw explains his methods for projecting the pace of today's race you will have a significant advantage over those that use any other method in selecting pacelines. Using best of the last 3 or any other canned paceline selection routine you are just as likely to ignore the likely pace of today's race and thereby minimize your opportunity to make an educated wagering decision.
Are there multiple Early horses in today's race that may exhaust themselves and set the race up for a closer? Can that closer run effectively against today's pace or will a Presser that shows he can press today's pace beat him to the punch? Is there a speed of the speed that will get his comfortable open lead and wire the field? You just can't decipher these things if you are mechanically approaching the race.
I offer this for no other reason than I read these threads and the information provided by others and I'd like to add my two cents. While you may not want to work in raw numbers as I do, if you do a better job of selecting your pacelines you increase your likelihood of success a 100 fold. If you have good pacelines then the other adjusted screens in the program will have a better chance of ranking your contenders.
I am not bound by the last 3 or 4 lines on a horse. If there have been layoffs recently and I determine the horse is coming fit I use the line that represents his ability from a previous form cycle. And sometimes it bits me in the ass but I also get alot of high priced horses that more than make up for it. There are methods used by trainers to improve their horses: distance and surface changes, condensing and expanding days between races, class and equipment changes. These things
are not readily obvious to new players but over time you will start to focus a little more on these things.
Databases are great but I have rarely seen winning percentages and ROIs that lead to profitability unless you insure that the pacelines you select are realistic in today's Match Up.
One of the most common methods for projecting today's pace is from the last race of all runners: RDSS2 will select these for you as you can see below.
What pace would you project for today's race and once you highlight that in the little boxes you can review each horse and his past performances with a new dimension of reality. Can he compete successfully against today's pace?


One Man's Opinion

[Bill V.]

Hi Mark
The way I project the pace of race is to use Micheal Pizzolla's Fulcrum method
from Pace Makes The Race pg. 102

Just by looking at your CD race The only horse that qualifies
off the last pace line are horses 4 and 10

The fulcrum method is to only use the last line
The fulcrum must come from the same track as surface
The horse must be with 5 lengths at both the second call and the finish
The pace is not atypicaal for that horse

The only horse who qualify are the 4 and 10
I think CD is a 1 turn mile
so I will use horse 4 and set the pace at 46.4

Now I just need to see if 46.4 is atypically fact for this horse
Then I would look to see if any horse can run a plus pace line against a 46.4.

In the race from Parx that Terry and I wer discussing there is no Fulcrum horse, therefore the race is pace less and As Micheal Pizzolla writes" When there is no fulcrum pace of race very often the TPR numbers do an exceptional job," They did here getting pointing to a $17.00 winner

Bill

[Mark]

Bill,

You are an old hand at this game and have developed the tools you need to be successful. I personally, use Bradshaw's guidelines to project an initial pace and then once I have eliminated those that can't run to it and have selected pacelines I will reset the pace faster or slower based upon my final contenders.
There are those that view this site that are just starting out or have limited experience and those were my intended audience.
Tom Hambleton and I worked together in 1993 with his programmer Michael Perry, prior to the latter's death and I have great respect for his TPR method and admiration for the man. However, prior to his going back to Kentucky in the mid 90's Tom acknowledged to me that his method was not working as well as it once had and couldn't explain why. He was quite despondent about it. I lost track of him after that. I understand he returned to Las Vegas and drove cab for a living and unfortunately passed away. He was a man well over 300 lbs.
Tom as you know was the primary author of "Pace makes the Race". Never much cared for Pizzola and the Fulcrum pace, in my view, was just a rehashing of Bradshaw's work.