Fg 3/5

[DanBoals]

Race 1 - 5, 1, 7
Race 2 - 8, 2, 7, 4
Race 3 - 5, 4, 3
Race 4 - 5, 6, 2
Race 5 - 3, 1, 6
Race 6 - 3, 7, 2
Race 7 - 7, 5, 2
Race 8 - 6, 7, 2, 10
Race 9 - 6, 7, 2, 8

[Lt1]

Good luck Dan.
Tim

[DanBoals]

Thanks Tim,

Been betting for real lately and not doing too well, figured I needed a break from the real thing and a run on paper to see if the adrenaline is messing with my decision making

[ranchwest]

Good luck, Dan. You're a good handicapper. A good day is in your near future.

[Lt1]

Since your back on paper keep a 20 race cycle form and see from where your winners are coming from. If too many are in tier 4 &5 a review of contender and paceline selection is called for.
Tim

[darmar]

Great Skill today Dan
Darryl

[DanBoals]

Race 1 - 5, 1, 7
7 win 19.40
7, 2 exacta 110.00

2 was the #1 LPR horse and the #4 overall


Race 2 - 8, 2, 7, 4
2 win 4.40
2, 1 exacta 24.80

1 was good in both TT and HID last out, usually a sign of an improving horse


Race 3 - 5, 4, 3
4 win 15.20
4, 5 exacta 52.40


Race 4 - 5, 6, 2
6 win 3.20
6, 5 exacta 8.60


Race 5 - 3, 1, 6
4 win 5.60
4, 3 exacta 13.00

with 6 and 1 scratched, 4 was the #2 overall choice


Race 6 - 3, 7, 2
7 win 3.20
7, 2 exacta 6.60


Race 7 - 7, 5, 2
2 win 13.80
2, 7 exacta 63.00


Race 8 - 6, 7, 2, 10
Race 9 - 6, 7, 2, 8

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Since your back on paper keep a 20 race cycle form and see from where your winners are coming from. If too many are in tier 4 &5 a review of contender and paceline selection is called for.
Tim

Good advice Tim.

Howard made an observation to me about 22 years ago. He said the reason not many people got rich with the methodology was that people with big egos would not stick with the methodology when they were winning and people with normal egos had a hard time betting on the longshots.

Howard, being a very competent psychologist, had wonderful insights into people and I think this was his way of telling to me to stay humble and stick with the software. Of course, he saw my problem. When I start handicapping well, I tend to wander away from the software and make bets based on what I see, not on the what I know the software is statistically analyzing.

Howard told me something that I think is the truest thing anyone has ever said about thoroughbred betting, "you can beat the races, but you can't beat the race". My dad had the top three horses at a race at Oaklawn that were 10 lengths in front and gaining coming into the stretch in a route. The lead horse stepped on something, fell and took out the next two. Even if your handicapping is perfect, racing is a chaotic event and random things can change a race. When I start doing well, I tend to forget this in my hubris and start trying to bet with surgical precision and blow it. My ego is my undoing.

Trust the software, trust the methodology, it has turned more losing gamblers into winning gamblers than anything in history with the possible exception of cheating.

[DanBoals]

Race 8 - 6, 7, 2, 10
7 win 3.00
7, 5 exacta 9.80

with 6 and 2 scratched, 1 and 5 moved into top 4


Race 9 - 6, 7, 2, 8
3 win 9.20
3, 7 exacta 55.80

I used wrong line for 3, should have used line 3 instead of line 1

[Lt1]

Looks like you had a very nice day Dan.
Tim