Kentucky Derby 2022 Discussion

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by ClockerDan

That Japanese Horse scares me, cause of my Late DAD who got me hooked on this crazy

but beautiful SPORT !!!! They run in pure sand thick n deep -- Dubia surfase is tough too

judge --- now better track with ease of foot n the horse can handle the crowd, noise and

BIG FIELD not to mention his jockey is a excellent rider

We watched in near disbelief as a Japanese horse FINALLY broke through at Del mar in November in the Breeder's Cup...Thank the Japanese for supporting out racing

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Well, that would even complicate matters further, wouldn't it. I looked into run ups a couple of years ago and the differences between tracks really amazed me. Some had 30-50 feet and others as much as 150 feet (so why not call these mile races 1 mile, 40 yarders? etc. With the time starting at the gate, or velocity "0" no wonder its hard to gage equivalent first and second fraction times.

For me, I'll just stick with what RDSS says and live with it.

Don't most animals attain almost full velocity in about three strides or so? That tiny difference would be neglible.

[clemento2]

tough call but still going with epicenter based on prestall buzz and form

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by clemento2

tough call but still going with epicenter based on prestall buzz and form

Before pace evaluations came out,THAT one was my top slection too

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Back in 2018 Mendelsohn came into the derby with a 117 rating off his win at Meydan, 8 points better than any other runner. small sample but I agree, buyer beware!

Also Thunder Snow in 2017 had a 113 rating, five better than the field!!!

SHhip then to the USA WELL IN ADVANCE of the big race (maybe even run thm in one of the last Derby preps IWTH a North American rider) and let them acclimate to the area.

I think the major problem with them is that they are Euro/grass trained and are too slow early.

[omar]

Thought about this race for a couple of days now. Changed my opinion 3 times and you know the saying " 3rd times a charm".
I'm posting this specifically for anyone who cares to listen.
My opinion in this year's Derby is this: My 2 key horses are the #13 and #1. My next two horses would be the #3 and #7.
I originally liked the #'s 1 & 19 plus the 7. But once I decided to use the Holy Bull race, he became lights out top horse. Why that race?? Because he's one of the few horses in the race that was able to transfer his " TOTAL PACE SPEED [TPR]" from a sprint to a route. True it was 1 turn but he came back around 2 turns and won the Holy Bull. One of two things happened in his last race. Either the horse got away from the jockey from the start or he wasn't good enough on that day . I think the former. This horse can rate, he may not like to but he can be rated. In prep races trainers do two things, they either try to win because they need the points OR they try because they know a 1-1/4 may be a reach for their horse. Take the money and run! and move on.
As far as the #1 he tries hard in every race and with Irad on him I'm not worried about the rail. He's not a Zenyatta type, he gets position in the race and then makes his move. Besides I won from the rail with Ferdinand in 1986.
The #3 is a good consistent type but he may run too close in a race with some pace and get caught up in the moment.
The #7, what can I say. He won his prep race easily off a lone speed type of horse. The Japanese knows that for him to have a shot he needs to be familiar with the track and he's been working lights out since April 16. This horse should be fly'in down the stretch with the #1 and the difference could be who gets blocked, bumped or not. I think the pace will be honest but not exceptionaly fast.
Yesterday I caught the #12 in race to at CD $22.80, and the exacta in race 10, 10-6-1, $322 but did not play the triple[ .50 $573 ]. The 6 and 1 were my main two horses.
OMAR

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Before pace evaluations came out,THAT one was my top slection too

SEASONING...the old Sartin group dropped Tapit back when due to lack of seasoning, and history repeats itssel. In the post parade, Taiba was jumping all over the place STARTING to get fractious...Did not get to see him later so I cannot say for sure if it got more intense.

Epicenter and Messier ran like the champs they are....Clean run I think too

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

SEASONING...the old Sartin group dropped Tapit back when due to lack of seasoning, and history repeats itssel. In the post parade, Taiba was jumping all over the place STARTING to get fractious...Did not get to see him later so I cannot say for sure if it got more intense.

Epicenter and Messier ran like the champs they are....Clean run I think too

I didn't think Messier was in the top 5, am I missing something on him running like a champ? Are you talking about prior to the derby?