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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 04-02-2017, 02:42 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Pace lines- Another Look from Omar

Hello

This is from a friend of mind , an old friend from my early days at the Meadowlands Omar uses Black Magic software from M. Pizzola
Some of his comment might not make sense to RDSS users ,But that is because he is using a different program.

Here is Omar's' essay on pace lines

Thank you Omar for sharing your methods
Bill


Paceline selection is easy.To me, paceline selection is nothing more than a FORM assessment on the horse. I always begin by highlighting the horse's last race and hitting the "W" key and then the "X" key UNpicking all the pacelines. In handicapping you always want to use a competitive race, by that I mean a race where the horse finished in the money. Sometimes you just don't see that in the pp's and so I look for a horse that pressed the pace through the stretch and finished within 1-1/2 lengths of the winner or his closest finish to the winner. If the horse has been steadily dropping in class I look to see improving early speed on the way up.
Now for the last 100+ years that meant within 2 lengths of the leader at the first 2 calls, but that's not necessarily true. Some horse's never run early, they close from various lengths back, so what you really want to look for is IMPROVED RUNNING POSITION in the first 2 calls. When you see horses that always close from 6th, 7th or higher at the 1st 2 calls and all of a sudden are 3rd or 4th at the 1st 2 calls, that's their version of displaying early speed, but the public just does not see that because they're looking at the beaten lengths instead of running position and that means PRICE. Now what you don't want to do is go back to where the horse ran good( in the money) for 30k claimer let's say and more recently has been dropping down to a 12.5 claimer and now shows improved form because if he could run back to his higher races then the trainer would not be dropping the horse in price if he thought the horse could display that kind of form. Well guess what, you may just have to use that last race if the horse does not show a previous good race near today's class level. Read the Comments after the company line(who ran 1st,2nd,3rd). If the chart caller says the horse
improved, rallied,etc., then guess what, that's also a sign of good form. When the comments say the horse ran wide, that's also a sign of improving form. 5wide,6wide,7wide 2 races in a row and the horse is ready to pop at a price,why, because some authors in
the 60's & 70's wrote that wide was an EXCUSE. These same authors maintained that if the horse did not race in 10 days he was eliminated as a contender!Now let's say the horse is not dropping in clm price today but running at the same level and displayed improved form in last race, then i would go back in pp's looking for an in the money finish but not more than 1 or 2 higher class levels than his most recent races. If horse finished in the money in last race then use it. If no in the money finishes in its pp's, then use last race or best RECENT finish.
If horse is RISING in class after a sharp effort or win, NO MORE than 2 class levels up, make sure the odds are HIGHER than last race and make sure the horse has TOP PBS/PPF NUMBERS.
Horses taking sharp class drops are always suspect. If they also have top program #'s and are heavily bet-just pass race. Also pass on horse if it's not getting no board action at all throughout the race.
After the paceline is chosen I then look to see if the horse has any Form Factors that Michael talks about, if the horse is a Reverser or is making a Power Class Move, and then I go back to that horse's paceline to see if I can help that horse with better PBS/PPF #'s
as long as they are not Atypical for that horse with a composite paceline (more than 1 paceline).
A word about 3 year olds prepping for the Triple Crown races. I always check their sprint races to see which horses can transfer their sprint ability to route races, looking for horses with high cruising speed. Case in point: PALACE MALICE and GUNNEVERA. In
2013, Pletcher put the blinkers on Malice, who already showed he could win in sprints by setting and/or closing off of fast early fractions, and he cut out his sprint fractions for 2/3 of derby before packing it in. Rested for 5 weeks and came off the pace to score in the Belmont Stakes, at a price. I'm guilty of not paying attention to 2 yo's in the summer, but I catch up in Jan-Feb by watching
summer reruns on youtube of horses like Gunnevera that peak my interest in Nov-Dec. I watched his Saratoga Special race, fast early fractions cut out by the 2/5 fav and seemingly out of nowhere halfway around the far turn here comes G making up ground
ever closer to the leader and just when the finish line comes into view and it looks like he'll finish 2nd, G puts it into 3rd or 4th gear passes the leader like he's standing still! Races next at Kee but doesn't fire. Comes back in the Delta Downs Jackpot and was
visually impressive. Again doesn't fire in next start but blows them away in the Fountain of Youth. The verdict is still out on the Florida Derby, not yet run, but if he doesn't fire again, we may see some show in the Derby. I just hope Javier stays on the horse or
give me Joel Rosario or Rafael Bejarano! I'm leary of horses that miss major derby preps like an Uncle Mo. So where's McCraken?? All his wins came at Churchill Downs. Horse's that chase the pace in the Derby and run a respectable 4th or 5th like an Oxbow or
Schackleford can come back and win the Preakness and pay good.
A word about LAYOFFS: ON THE DIRT LAYOFFS ARE UNFORGIVING. You see it day in and day out. Anything past 75 days. 30 days rest are normal nowadays. Just look at any horse's record and you'll see horses racing once a month on a regular basis,
sometimes twice a month during the racing year. Only with the bottom claimers like $6500 @ gulfstream park you may find some
racing weekly for a while. They're being raced into shape. My theory is this: we know speed is an important factor in dirt racing whether sprints or routes, and the pace in most of these races is just too hot for a horse that's been on the shelf for a while to handle, hence they need a "tightener" in their first race back before a sharp effort. Of course there are always exceptions. Some horses get sore right away and only run 1 or 2 good races before they have to layoff again.The trainer knows this and has them ready on their return to the races.
BUT LAYOFFS ON THE GRASS ARE DIFFERENT. Layoff horses win much more often primarily because the Early Pace in route events on the grass are much SLOWER than they are in dirt races and the EMPHASIS IS ON CLOSING SPEED OR 3RD FRACTION. Anyone who has been around race horses, i was a hot walker for a week back in 1982, knows that horses that have been confined to their stalls for any length of time can't wait to run, they yearn to run, they dream of running, especially if they're too sore to even have a workout. They will pull your arm off as you give them their daily walk around the barn. And so when a horse that's been laid off returns to racing on the grass, and is confronted by that slower early pace, will respond more readily when asked to run by the jockey during the later part of the race. Now i'm not saying every layoff horse on the grass wins but a disproportionate will, much more than on the dirt. In turf Sprints the pace is much hotter than on the dirt, especially in the 5F races, but yet the emphasis is still on closing, which makes it easier for the layoff horse to cope with.

Last edited by Bill V.; 04-02-2017 at 02:45 PM.
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Old 04-02-2017, 10:52 PM   #2
omar
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Question Howdy Pardner

I'm still using the Master Magician not the Black Magic. Had a good day 4/2/17 at Hallandale. My contra horse,the 3 in first race came in. Caught the exacta but wasn't thinking DD or i would have caught that too. The 5 was my 3rd choice in 2nd race. I liked the 1 horse. he goes into the gate at 15-1 and the 1st call out of the gate he's 7-1!!! I did catch the 2 in the 10th race + exacta + late DD + late exacta 12-10. DD= 175.80, EX 12-10=176.00. had each for a buck, also the 2-1 ex. in 10th=162.80 for a buck + win on #2 19.60.
Later, Omar.
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Old 04-03-2017, 10:54 AM   #3
raceman5
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Nice

Job Omar. Now would you go through in race 1 on what lines you chose and why?

bob
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Old 04-03-2017, 10:31 PM   #4
omar
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Smile Race 1

I hate to assume anything but i think your talking about GP on 4/2/17.

OK let's begin. I'm looking at the race first through your eyes and then mine because your using a velocity program and i'm using a positional program, the Master Magician, which i will henceforth refer to as MM because i don't like to type!
I see a fast pace based on the last race of the 4 and the pressing ability of the 8. The 8 can press fast fractions on the grass but has not been able to transfer her speed to the dirt, but since the horse doesn't understand that and since she's going to chase the 4, she's going to tire. Now the 4, who cut out a wicked pace last time out, well let me start off by saying anybody that thinks a rock bottom claimer is going to set the same fractions again better switch to a weaker brand of coffee or cut out the coffee altogether in the morning, so i'm going to be generous and set the early pace at 22 3/5, 45 3/5. Now i originally used the last line on the 4 (87/0)pbs/ppf, but i could just as easily used the 8/13 race off that 45 2/5 pace and competitive race (83/5). The 8 dropped down to this level last time out (65/-2) and at first glance it looks ATYPICAL to the other races. I thought about giving him(88/3) off a grass race but his other dirt races stunk, so i think his last race is right.
Next i'll look at the 1, 2 &3 horses. The 1 is a dead closer. He ran good at 6 1/2f off a 22 3/5 45 2/5 but the problem is everytime the horse stretched out to a mile in his pp's, he got laid... OFF, so i gave him (76/2) off his 2nd back because i don't want to give him a better # off an earlier form cycle followed by a previous layoff. Yes i really look at all this when i scan the pp's because I LOOK AT FORM BEFORE PACE. I don't like him anyhow. The #2 ran good the last 4 races but can't make it into the 112's in final time off slower fractions than he'll face today, so even if i use his 9/17 race(71/0) vs. his last (59/2), it don't matter, he can't win anyhow! Next, #3. Yeah TECHNICALLY my program said he can't meet the Fulcrum(44 3/5) and the 3/11 race wasn't his last race, but the T word sounds too much like a RULE. Besides, I made the pace as 45 3/5 and he ran good to that pace 2 back and on 10/14, and 2 back the internal 6f. was 110 4/5. I used his 2nd back(60/7) PLUS he's a REVERSER TO THE 8 IN THAT RACE. Next the #5. Here's another FORM ANGLE: horse got claimed twice in last form cycle. Won after claim then laid off. 1st off l/o gets claimed again and gets claimed again in his last race. I originally used his last race but then switched to the 11/19(83/6) because i wanted to help the horse and it was in line with his 9/4 race at 5.5f(82/7).WHENEVER I GIVE THE HORSE EXTRA CREDIT FOR POSITIVE FORM ANGLES, I ALWAYS WANT TO HELP THE HORSE WITH A BETTER # and here it made sense since he beat #3 on 9/4 and could handle today's pace off that race and his last race, which was also 5.5f. Next #6. Ran a real tough race last out,see race comments, to me it's a classic bounce at best or knock him off form at worst. Can't transfer his turf speed to dirt, likes to push the pace and is probably up against it here. I used last race(60/1). Next #7. Could handle the pace if he's in form but he got beat by # 6 in last 2 races following his win 3 back(66/1). Not a Reverser in last,more than 6 L. back of #6. LAST AND LEAST OF ALL #9. Big dirt layoff, his turf speed does transfer over to his dirt races AND HE STINKS ON BOTH COUNTS. His turf races were much slower than the other horses. Originally i gave him(81/7) based on his last competitive race, OUT OF HABIT WITH MY SHORT CUT HANDICAPPING, but on closer examination,his turf ppf #s were mostly positive while his 3 dirt races were minus double digits and so i used his 8/7 dirt race(54/-13).The only 2 positive form angle horses here were the#5 and #3. The top 3 PPF horses were the 3=+7, 5=+6 and the 4=+5, while the top PBS horses were 5=83, 4=83 and gap to the 1=76. Again i disagreed w/ the programs call of lone early on the 4 horse. I felt the race setup was Neutral which means to me look at both PBS and PPF. I bet both 3 &5 to win and used 4 horses under each in exacta. Later,Omar. Hope this answers your question.P.S. See #2 in 10th race, same form angle as #5 in R1.

Last edited by omar; 04-03-2017 at 10:41 PM. Reason: Add on
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