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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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07-12-2021, 05:46 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Mitch44, thanks! I understood the basics of % Med. I have programmed most of the MPH calculations. I've just been away from racing for several years and I am seeking new insight. I guess I just thought I was deep into it a few years ago. lol
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07-12-2021, 05:56 PM | #12 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
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07-12-2021, 06:11 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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% Med can be used to discount certain horses such as NTL ( need to lead) horses, stretch outs etc.
Certain Match UPs force a horse to run out of its comfort zone or expend their energy too early trying to keep up. Selecting a pace line is not difficult at all, while its an important key to success it really isn't difficult at all. Follow Sartin guidelines for success in picking lines. His later guidelines, which is use the best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. A horse needs to stay within its comfort zone or normal running style to be successful. [B]On the TPR screen look at the red and blue sticks to see its normal style. I place importance on it and also pay particular attention to any horse that changed its style in its last race, particularity if it changed trainers or distance. Especially if it increased its Tot. Energy in that race. Some trainers are slow to know the proper way to run their horses others never get this. A horse that all of a sudden rates etc. note: not because it got in trouble and had to take up. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 07-12-2021 at 06:27 PM. |
07-12-2021, 06:49 PM | #14 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
Line 1: 21 days 5f Ds MY high %M Line 2: 53 days 5f D FT low %M Line 3: 282 days 6f D FT high %M Line 4: 338 days 5.5f D FT high %M I don't like lines 3 and 4 because they stretch back to the 2yo year. Line 1 has a question mark because it is a MY track. Line 2 has a question mark because of the extreme opposite %M. Which line would you pick? Line 1, even though it is on a MY track? |
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07-12-2021, 07:47 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,124
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Hi Ranch. Just to clear things up I also use the best of the last 3 perceptor lines at a comparable dist and surface for my pace line selection. The use of % Med doesn't come into play for me until I have identified my contenders and given each a paceline.
I use the % med to see if a horse can stretch out or if it distributes its' energy too early or late to win at todays' distances and surface. Tim
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07-12-2021, 07:52 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,124
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Just a further note ,based on my record keeping, to be remove from win consideration the horse must have 3 or more races showing these abnormal %meds in its' pps.
Tim
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07-12-2021, 08:27 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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07-12-2021, 08:55 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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07-12-2021, 10:17 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,124
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I look for all too high or too low first. If I encounter a horse[and you will] that has a mix of too high & too low races [for example 2 of each] then out it goes for win re too inconsistent.
Tim
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07-12-2021, 10:27 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Thanks. Yes, I consider my elimination factors to be strong in the win position only. As Sartin said, the bottom of the exacta is not the same as the top.
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