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2015 Friday and Saturday Oct 30/31 - Keeneland, KY |
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10-30-2015, 09:56 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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B.C. Dirt Mile - Race 7 - Friday
I'm using #3 Liam's Map to project pace right off his last line - 47.5 - 110.9.
He has shown faster times around 2 turns with 2 back and 4 back. He also is not a pure "E" runner pressing and winning from 2nd position 4 back and 6 back. Tandems show he has crushed the #8 Wicked Strong twice by 6 lengths plus both times. Also buried the #5 Lea by over 10 lengths when they met. Heavy fav appears deservedly so.
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10-30-2015, 10:05 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
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Posts: 7,014
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Here are the full pp's for each runner with my lines marked.
I started with best of last 3 line selector than made some adjustments based on projected pace. I also adjusted running styles manually to what I felt was in line with the runners when they faced today's expected pace. Just as an FYI right out of the box with no "fiddling" the #2 and # 10 (neither have faced the "giant" #3 btw) are highly ranked with both at 10/1 on the ml.
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10-30-2015, 10:09 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
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Remainder of the field:
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10-30-2015, 10:20 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Here are the TPR / Segments and BLBL screens:
Personally I am not looking to bet against the favorite here, I dont play exotics. Might be better races offering value and I definitely see the Distaff carded as today's 9th as one of them! I'm looking OTE for the win off a projected pace of 47 - 111 by the #10 Yahilwa's last line here at Keeneland.
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10-30-2015, 11:58 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Richie, great to see you posting again. Look forward to more, more, more.
Thanks, Bill |
10-30-2015, 12:26 PM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Richie P !
Hello Rich
Here is what I see 3 way tie on VDC Code:
KEE1030 7 8.0 D G1 3+ $1,000,000 4:10PM THE V A L I D A T O R (VAL4) ┌─┬───────────┬───┬───┬────────┐ ┌───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬──┬──┐ ┌──────┐ ┌────┐ │#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│BAL│ TOT-R│ │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│FW│HE│FX│ │V/DC-T│ │SUPP│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤ ├──────┤ ├────┤ │1│ 1 RED V3 1│ 91│ 6│167.16-2│ │ 2│ 3│ 2│ 2│ 4│ 2│ 5│ │ 3│ │ 5│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤ ├──────┤ ├────┤ │2│ 2 BRADE3 1│ 93│ 6│167.50-1│ │ 1│ 4│ 1│ 1│ 3│ 3│ 3│ │ 1│ │ 2│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤ ├──────┤ ├────┤ │3│ 3 LIAM'3 │ 91│ 6│167.01-3│ │ 2│ 3│ 2│ 3│ 4│ 3│ 4│ │ 4│ │ 4│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤ ├──────┤ ├────┤ │4│ 5 LEA 6 │ 91│ 6│166.62-4│ │ 3│ 2│ 3│ 4│ 2│ 1│ 2│ │ 1│ │ 3│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤ ├──────┤ ├────┤ │5│ 6 STREE1 │ 91│ 6│166.34-5│ │ 4│ 1│ 2│ 5│ 1│ 2│ 1│ │ 1│ │ 1│ └─┴───────────┴───┴───┴────────┘ └───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴──┴──┘ └──────┘ └────┘ Code:
KEE1030 7 8.0 D G1 3+ $1,000,000 4:10PM INCREMENTAL MATCH-UP GRAPH (VAL4) ┌───────────┬────────────────────┬─────────────────────┬──────────────────────┐ │# PNcNAME L│ 1F │ 2F │ 3F+TOTAL PACE │ ├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│ │1 1 RED V3│ 3-> │ 2-> │ 3-> │ ├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│ │2 2 BRADE3│ 1->│ 1->│ 1->│ ├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│ │3 3 LIAM'3│ 4-> │ 3-> │ 4-> │ ├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│ │4 5 LEA 6│ 5-> │ 4-> │ 1->│ ├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│ │5 6 STREE1│ 2-> │ 5-> │ 1->│ └───────────┴────────────────────┴─────────────────────┴──────────────────────┘ |
10-30-2015, 03:59 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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O.M.G. - Hello "Bill's" - Lyster and Varone!
It's like deja vu all over again Hope you guys are doing great! Hey before the race runs (looks like about 15 mtp) I just want to put up the out of the box readouts using all the default settings. Here they are
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10-30-2015, 04:30 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Nice call on the horses ability to sit off the pace; he needed today and did it.
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10-30-2015, 04:33 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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I have the 2-3-7-10 and 15 in the pick three. I used the top two Timeform ratings for the first race in this sequence and for the 3-10 in leg three
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10-31-2015, 08:43 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Here is the result chart for the race
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