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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 07-31-2021, 05:16 PM   #21
Ted Craven
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Nicely done Bill! How did you zero-in on the #6 in Race 8?

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Old 07-31-2021, 05:24 PM   #22
Bill Lyster
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Thank you gents,
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Old 07-31-2021, 10:14 PM   #23
buffaloxp
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Good hit Bill ,congrats, i use line 1 for horse 5, if line 3 will come up 5,1,7,3, Thank you for all reply,will put some race next

raymond
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Old 07-31-2021, 10:23 PM   #24
buffaloxp
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[QUOTE=Mitch44;136533]

#1 L 3 V -24 very fast
#3 L 2 V -24 very fast
#6 L 1 V 11 normal within range however slow compared to others in here
#8 L 3 V -21 very fast

This is where a consistent procedure comes in for picking a pace line. Also why your using RDSS. The settings within RDSS will also give you a consistent approach to adjustments.

With a recommended setting of -15 & +15 it'll adjust these horses and one should trust the results. Its better than you could do and its applied consistently.
Anything under -15 won't be considered and only 50% 0f the -15 will be considered.



Mitch
i not know how to use this DTV and when to use, and what is the number is best to use,can you show us

thank you
raymond
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Old 08-01-2021, 08:58 AM   #25
Mitch44
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Hi Ray,

The DTV is accounted for in your setting. I would use the recommended settings of; use 50 % and it should be set on - 15 and + 15 for the range. This setting is pretty much what normal variants fall in for tracks. Outside of these ranges are basically abnormal and their accuracy comes into question.

You can see your settings when you first open the program, than click on the configure Tab. There you can see your settings and it should be set on the recommended setting.

In the example above with the 1,3,6 & 8, the 1,3, & 8 all have very high minus variants which tells me the track was very fast. Much faster than the normal of 0 within RDSS. Proper settings in the program brings those variants back to normal of -15 & or +15 and only uses half of that. So the 1 & 3 with -24 would only be adjusted 7.5 of the norm of -15, not 24.

Variants are mostly effected by the weather, particularity rain, wind and maintenance. All weather tracks are less effected by this and are more stable.

In some cases such as yesterday there were several of these and the horses didn't have another usable line. Proper settings helps eliminate all this noise or crazy variants. Bottom line is you'll win more races with the recommended settings. Sartin and his group spent years of testing to come up with the proper settings.

There are those that don't believe in adjusting races, particularity Matchers, however Bradshaw did this all the time and made these adjustments in his head. He showed us at a seminar how he did it. Its not hard but time consuming and better left for the RDSS program to handle. Matchers would win many more races if they used the program to assist them. The adjustments and DTV is just one of them.

Of the example above of the 1,3,6 & 8, I would choose the 6 as the best horse. Of those 4.
Just use the proper settings and let it rip and you'll get more winners. Also know when to stay out of very iffy races where the data or too many questions exists.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 08-01-2021 at 09:01 AM.
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Old 08-01-2021, 01:14 PM   #26
Bill Lyster
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ted craven View Post
nicely done bill! How did you zero-in on the #6 in race 8?

Ted
The 2-4-8-9 came out of the same race and most of them from the race before that. I like the 6f time of the 6 and the velocity screen helped me choose from a group that looked like they were all running the same race. The 4 was a visual early or EP. The 6 had the best 2nd call at 55.9 followed by three horses at 55.7 that could only produce a 3F of 50.7-50.6. My second horse was the 4.

Finally, my four factor analysis had the 4 as 1-2-1-1 and the 6 as 2-1-3-4. The 9 was not top 5 rated in all 4 and the 8 was 5-4-2-2. The 10 did not have all 4 factors in the top 5.

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Last edited by Bill Lyster; 08-01-2021 at 01:17 PM.
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Old 08-01-2021, 02:06 PM   #27
Mitch44
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Congrats again Bill for very good work and analysis on some very difficult races.

Mitch44
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Old 08-01-2021, 02:09 PM   #28
ranchwest
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Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Horse

1, line 4, don't trust 7.5T lines, especially vs horses who have lines at or near todays distance on the turf. If all you have is 7.5t lines they might be overstating the potential vs the rest of the field.

3, line 1

6, line 1

8, line 5

All of these selections are PROVIDED that each line is within the horses normal energy distribution range. otherwise look again.

Once you see what the range of median energys are for these four horses, check to see how close some of the first time turfers run on dirt. They can be contenders if their median energy and total energy are close to the veteran turf horses. Does not happen too often though, but you gotta check.
Thanks very much for this tip! I reviewed the -7.5 T at GP lines and the f1 values are drastically different from other lines. So, of course you were correct. It just surprises me how much difference there is, as I have not being handicapping GP much.

Would you say that it would be a good idea to review all f1 values routinely in selecting lines? I would assume that this situation could exist at other tracks and/or distances.
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Old 08-01-2021, 10:01 PM   #29
buffaloxp
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Thanks Mitch for the info
raymond
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