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Old 08-03-2020, 03:01 PM   #11
Ted Craven
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Bill, I am sorry I have been delayed beginning documenting my understanding of Dick's methods from my notes and conversations with him, along with examples. Including separating into A-B-C selections (though I know my understanding will require nuancing from him).

I do plan to resume that this coming week. I'm pretty sure we'll have an evolving body of method and practice in the next week or so.

Ted
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Old 08-03-2020, 03:10 PM   #12
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Explanation

Bill, the different rankings are dependent on the number of 1s, 2s, and 3s each of the contenders have, and how many of the 4factors each horse has.

Example, a horse with all 4 ratings of 1s is an A same as a horse with a rating 2-1-1-1. A 5 3 4 3 rating normally is no higher than 3rd or 4 depending on the ratings the other contenders have.
Once you get your contenders and run them thru RDSS go to the RX3 screen and look at all the contenders with 3 or 4 ratings of 5 or less. These horses will win about 85% of all the races.
In most playable races this will only be 4 horses or less.

I hope this helps, if not give me a call and we can work a few races together.
Richard
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Old 08-03-2020, 07:36 PM   #13
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Nice Exciting method.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Bill, the different rankings are dependent on the number of 1s, 2s, and 3s each of the contenders have, and how many of the 4factors each horse has.

Example, a horse with all 4 ratings of 1s is an A same as a horse with a rating 2-1-1-1. A 5 3 4 3 rating normally is no higher than 3rd or 4 depending on the ratings the other contenders have.
Once you get your contenders and run them thru RDSS go to the RX3 screen and look at all the contenders with 3 or 4 ratings of 5 or less. These horses will win about 85% of all the races.
In most playable races this will only be 4 horses or less.

I hope this helps, if not give me a call and we can work a few races together.
Richard
should be very interesting as the results to continue to come in
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Old 08-04-2020, 05:08 PM   #14
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I have started elaborating on the elements of the 4 Factor method starting in Post #2 of the Thread. I'll continue describing the process and the important nuances, but am pausing for now to let Dick reply to a couple of points I have asked about in red italics in the post above.

Dick, feel free to reply here and I will edit the opening posts. They are intended to be a collection all in one place of all your Guidelines and nuances, rather than only gradually interspersed in a long discussion thread.

Dick, if I got the Configure Settings wrong, please let me know.

Dick, I'd appreciate it if you could share your ticket structure for the Pick6 and Pick5 (and Pick3s) for GP on July 31. That will give some more clarity about how you use the 4 Factor method to actually construct horizontal wagers.

Thanks!

Ted
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Old 08-04-2020, 06:34 PM   #15
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Dick, here are some additional questions about your Contenders and ABC tier decisions/rules for the July 31 races at Gulfstream.

Race 7 - you had both 4 and 10 horses as Tier C. The #10 has all 4 factors (i.e. all ratings ranked 5 or less), and those are 3s and 4s, while the #4 horse has only 3 factors, 3s and 4s with fewer 3s than the #10 Why is the #10 co-equal C tier to the #4 horse?

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Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath Winners shown in RED
R5) A: 9 B: 5 C: 6 D: 2

R6 ) A: 6 B: 2-5 C: 1

R 7 ) A: 8 B: 9 C: 4-10

R 8) A: 4 B: 2 C: 7-10 D: 1

R 9 ) A: 2 B: 3-4 C: 1-5

R10 ) A: 12 B: 2-6 C: 9-11

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Old 08-04-2020, 06:47 PM   #16
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Race 8 - A and B (#4 and #2 respectively) are pretty clear with #4 having 2 rank #1s and those in the higher weight PL/BPP columns.

The #1 horse had no CSR rank (> 5th) but that's because it hit the gate in its last race and didn't recover, running a slow ASR which had a disproportionate effect on CSR. I changed it by right-clicking the CSR label in the horse header screen, and now it ranked 4th on CSR, as shown.

You made the #7 and #10 equally 'C' tiers. Can you explain why the #10 and not the #1 which has all 4 ranks (and even if you did not adjust the CSR, it would have had 3 ranks compared to the #10 horse 2 ranks). You show the #1 as 'D' Tier, which I presume means 'not for Win'.

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Answers to these nuances will help me flesh out the Guidelines, especially in breaking ties in the lower Tiers which we need to get results like GP July 31.

Thanks!

Ted
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Old 08-04-2020, 06:50 PM   #17
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Or course, we might be using different Configuration Settings, hence different VDC or CSR rankings ...
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Old 08-04-2020, 09:48 PM   #18
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7-31 r7

Ted, in race 7 you asked why the 4 & 10 were ranked as Cs. the answer is they were both primary win contenders because they both had a 3 in the rankings and they had at least 3 of the 4 rankings. Also if someone was using the A,B, C
horses in a p-3 4 5 or 6 they might not use both horses on a ticket , which in a lot of cases would end up with a loosing play instead of a winning one.

I have found that horses with 3 or 4 ratings and at least one is a 3 or lower in any of the ratings should be used in the p-5 & p-6, if the cost is not too high.

About 50% of all the p-6 at GP are made up of these horses.
Richard
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Old 08-04-2020, 09:58 PM   #19
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Ted you are right in race 5 that the 5 & 9 both could have been posted as As, but I chose to split them up as I felt there were truly only two main win contenders. AND bymaking them both As the 6 would have been moved up undeservedly.
Hope this helps.

Richard
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Old 08-05-2020, 09:59 AM   #20
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Race6: First the 3 & 7 are both scratched.
second I listed the 2 & 5 as tied since both had two # 2s.

As a result of the two scratches there were only 5 horses running and all 5 contenders had all 4 ratings. In cases with only 5 horses running I hace found that 85+% of the time the winner has a 2 or lower in the 4 Factors.
Richard
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