TC & Classic Match UP

[Mitch44]

I took a look at both recent winners Maximum Security and Tis the Law victories which were at the distance for the Classic. They were rated using a modified and different version of a Sartin Downs chart.

Races used were Max's race of 22 Aug., and Tis the Law race of 8 Aug. both at 10 F the distance of the Classic. The comparison handicapping surprised me.

Results were that Tis the Law was better by 1.5 lengths. The accuracy of this may be off slightly as it did not account for the Daily Variant at each track or a Track to Track adjustment. Note: SAR had its surface redone for this years meet so after the meet a better judgement can be made as to the difference this year verses last. Perhaps Charlie or some one playing SAR daily and keeping records maybe can shed some light on this. I'll be interested to see what speed figures these two get for these two races. Their done by age so they may vary due to that but the track and variants should be in them.

Regardless, what this says is that Tis the Law is a monster to be on equal footing with an older proven multiple Grade 1 horse at the distance. He should improve about 2 more lengths for maturity by 7 Nov. And that being the case he appears to be lock for a Triple Crown Winner this year. The shorter distance of the Belmont and more spacing of the TC races will aide him in this accomplishment. This isn't a knock just an effect of Covid-19, regardless it still requires one hell of a horse and the best of his generation to accomplish it. Of course he must remain sound etc.

Can he beat Max in the Classic? Well one thing we don't know is how much was Max cranked up for his win on 22 Aug. Plus he has proved he can run successfully on various tracks. That's an unknown with Tiz and the answer will come after the TC.

Its still early for the TC as the Covid and new schedule has kept other horses off the TC trail. The schedule has prevented fewer breakdown among the 3 yr. old's and has allowed them to develop at a more leisurely pace. A late bloomer can still arrive and the chance is better this year for that scenario. But the fact is not many fall into the category of Tis the Law's figures.

While not paying much they could be the top two finishers in this years Classic in what will be and exciting race. Hopefully they both remain sound and we get to witness this Match UP.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

My Derby picks are as followed:17-16, for Tri or SF etc. consider 18-15-2-8. Doesn't appear a good betting race as Tiz the Law just towers over this field. Also the Ky. Oats and Derby DD doesn't appear to be a good bet.

Of course in a large field anything can happen. There are some unknown horses in here that are stretching out to 10 F. # 10 has much speed is one such unknown stretching out, question is whether he's in it to win or just a rabbit for Baffert's other horse # 18. Tiz has enough speed to get a good stalking position to remain out of trouble and pounce as the speed takes a toll in last 1/4 to 1/8 of a mile.

Tactics wise it'll be an interesting race to watch but not necessarily a good betting race.

My distance Factor this year has it this way:

17 Big gap
16 tie
2 tie
8
18

Mitch44