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Old 11-29-2021, 09:32 AM   #1
The Pook
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What to make of S7's?

Every once in a while you come across a horse designated sustained but with a 7 Quirin number. Seems oxymoronic and I am never sure what to do with them. Although my experience has been that they do run sustained.

Why the 7 Quirin? Has anybody seen an S8? How does RDSS come up with this particular designation?

Here is an example from CD on Nov 28/21.

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Old 11-29-2021, 06:07 PM   #2
Ted Craven
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The anomaly of a visually Sustained horse with high Quirin Speed Points (QSP) comes from a recent change of Running Style

QSP are computed using the most recent 3 usable lines of the past 5 races and observe 1st Call beaten lengths and running position. Whereas - Running Style is computed from the same BL and Position measurements over the entire past performance.

Thus - S7 implies a horse who has typically run Sustained (or at least Other than Early) overall, but has recently been up close enough to accumulate more speed points than a Sustained runner usually would.

I guess the same but opposite can be true for a visually Early horse overall which has been changing to Other Than Early -- OR, is currently going off form and not running competitively in any part of the race. E.g. E1

A useful corollary to RS/QSP is the EL+ rating (or NewPace, if you have that) which is a bit more nuanced and less sensitive to recency in biasing a horse Early (red) or Late (blue) ranked. That horse was rated the worst of the Late horses in NewPace/EL+

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Last edited by Ted Craven; 11-29-2021 at 06:10 PM.
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Old 11-29-2021, 06:49 PM   #3
ranchwest
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There are various ways of evaluating running style. For this specific horse:
'
RDSS: S
BRIS: E
RanchWest (my personal calculation): SP
CJ (a handicapper): N (not enough indication from the data)

It's a matter of becoming accustomed to the evaluation being used and deciding how you want to interpret it. As Ted explained, the style and the speed points are likely to cover different races. So, it is well within the realm of possibility that there might be an S7. I don't much care for the way BRIS does style, but to each his own.

I think speed point calculation is explained in Quirin's Winning At the Races. The calculated points should be the same from all sources.

Last edited by ranchwest; 11-29-2021 at 06:52 PM.
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Old 11-30-2021, 09:16 AM   #4
The Pook
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Thanks guys. I hadn’t realized that QSP used only the last three lines. This would explain the differences. Most of the time the QSP number gives you a more precise reading of the overall running style. Changing running styles within the last ten lines isn’t that common. This is good to know.

Thanks again,
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:53 AM   #5
ranchwest
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I am always impressed by how consistently horses generally run when in a good situation for that horse. When I see significant differences in various factors of pace, I start to question whether there is a change in the health of the horse and whether that change is likely to persist.
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Old 12-16-2021, 07:28 AM   #6
oswaldrha
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Question for Ranchwest: How exactly does BRIS calculate/determine running style?
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Old 12-16-2021, 11:23 AM   #7
Tim Y
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I have NEVER understood Brohamer's and BRIS telling us, for example, that Affirmed ran anything but sustained/presser by this distribution of energy and the very definition of the word SUSTAINED, it is far far different than early.
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Old 12-16-2021, 11:56 AM   #8
ranchwest
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oswaldrha View Post
Question for Ranchwest: How exactly does BRIS calculate/determine running style?
I don't know, but BRIS seems to usually be pretty close to the speed points from what I have seen. I haven't formally studied it, but it seems that most 8's are E's and most 0's are S's, for example.

Personally, I evaluate the Early to Late range based on % Median (the median of the % medians of all available races), which doesn't really have anything to do with position the way speed points does. To me, early indicates what the horse is trying to do while speed points suggests what he has actually done positionally. This may be significantly different from RDSS or other software, I don't know how they figure it.

And, as Ted pointed out, running style is across up to 10 races whereas speed points is from the most appropriate 3 of 5.

Last edited by ranchwest; 12-16-2021 at 12:03 PM.
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Old 12-25-2021, 12:06 PM   #9
Bill Lyster
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Another way to check this designation would be to look for confirmation from the TPR screen. You can see the evolution of the horses running style as the horse transitions from a no speed sprinter into a pressing or late router from its EPR/LPR numbers. I would bet that the early numbers for this horse are getting better but the horse is still running from behind. Some horses run the same or nearly the same EPR/LPR as the race leaders set the pace by themselves. This type of horse is rarely involved with the pace but may look to be running earlier in slower races and farther back when the pace is faster. Its a pretty good bet that if todays 6 furlong time is 111 and change that this horse will be a good ways back.
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