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06-14-2015, 11:23 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
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Getting consumed by readouts
Do any of you feel you are getting too wrapped up in the readouts instead
of analyzing the PP'S of the horses first? |
06-14-2015, 12:00 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
|
I should have said instead
When picking out pace lines for horses to put in the computer do you first analyze the PP'S of the horses or do you just start picking the lines. |
06-14-2015, 12:22 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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plus lines
Hi Jeff
I look at the + lines to see how and why it runs + races. I also see what goes wrong with 0 lines on the early late graph. I also pay attention to the race conditions. I will pick a line differently based on the conditions of the race. Bill L's recent post about NW2L is a good lesson. I usually agree with the auto selected best of last 3 RDSS2 suggest but I change the lines too. Nothing is all or nothing However once I select pace lines I rely fully on the readouts. I am the worst match up guy . Even though Jim Bradshaw himself said I was good at it, I still think I suck, so I stay with RDSS or Validator 4 readouts to handicap GS Bill |
06-14-2015, 12:51 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
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Hi Bill,
Thanks for the reply and something to think about, I feel lately that I haven't been paying enough attention to the PP'S before I start picking lines. I doubt very seriously that you suck at the match up as you seem well versed on all aspects of the methodology. Jeff |
06-14-2015, 12:59 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
any time
Hey Jeff
You can always post a problem race here. Its so much easier for me to work here than with emails. Other can also help you get a feeling for how we use RDSS. Bill |
06-14-2015, 02:08 PM | #6 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 97
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Hi Jeff,
I will highlight a line or two that I think represents all the horses best. Then go back and put them in the program. And rely on the ratings.But also look at the pp's again,to find a additional thing that I like about the horse like,trainer info.ESP matchup like Layoff in the money PCT.2nd or 3rd off layoff,is this bum trainers only good horse,jockey switch,trainer pct with drops ect.Info that supports a strong corollary from my models. if I can find any!As I am mainly a exacta player. Bill your working detail of all these old and new programs is amazing. Ok here is the rub,do you think modeling third fraction or getting it from result charts might be better,as a way to toss out horses.trying to figure best way to employ it.thanks again for the site |
06-14-2015, 02:50 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
|
Hi Peteman,
Thanks for the reply as well. I can attest to Bill being a master of the old programs as I have met him several times working his magic.The last time at Laurel he hit 5 races in a row using Validator and was working the races as they were approaching post time. Jeff |
06-14-2015, 06:52 PM | #8 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Energy
Quote:
I would not use result charts - been there did that - I would use the adjusted time of the,winning horse from the paceline you used. I would also separate by total energy. high, ave or low. I would only model the 3rd fraction energy not raw fps Then I would look for parameters like for low total energy horses I may except a 30.10 3rd fraction as my low but for a high total energy horses I would toss a 30.10 3rd fraction Bill |
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06-14-2015, 08:55 PM | #9 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 97
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Thanks for the input Bill,and it has to be faster than going over
old results charts and crunching fps numbers,and it would make it easier to be able to relate the third fraction to the winners other rankings. Pete |
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