The Master Key to Handicapping - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

lsosa54 · 02-10-2013, 01:43 PM

Ray: I think I participated in the 1990 or 1991 version. Obviously no internet so it was all manual input off the DRF. Think I had Synergism 2.

A couple of buddies and I flew up from L.A. I remember the area up and down the street was pretty run down. I think the Hilton was the only nice place as I think it was newer at the time. Hopefully it's changed for the better.

It was my first tournament and I had only been 'capping for a couple of years. I made no money but at least I was able to walk out on Sunday with a decent chunk of my starting bankroll. I think you had to put up $500 to play.

Rousso was definitely legit and a very good capper. I think he used to sit and cap with Brohamer and Quinn as Quinn always got a box for the big meet. He had a 900 number set up - might have been part of Selvin's Handicappers Reports 900 numbers at the time along with Jeff Siegel. Believe he did become a lawyer.

I think Doc recommended 2 horse betting more for psychological reasons given the group of folks I saw at his seminars. A lot of folks were having trouble understanding the concepts and probably didn't have the makeup for long run outs. He did say that 2 horse betting was actually more profitable than one horse. I never agreed but I was happy to give up some profit for more peace of min.

I guess it depends on one's hit rates but I think it's very tough nowadays to be grinding it out as a 2 horse bettor on lower priced horses and make a profit. Odds are much lower on those horses nowadays vs. the late 80's and early 90's. Plus, you have to keep your "mistakes" or "oversights" down to almost none - there is no margin for error. You have to remove yourself emotionally and run it like a business.

I think Bill's example shows that you have to do what you're comfortable with at a betting level you're comfortable with.

James T. · 02-23-2013, 06:59 PM

I'm not sure I get it. I've been told that one can achieve about a 30% win just by betting on the favorite. So how is 25% better?

atkinsrr · 02-23-2013, 10:03 PM

depends on your mutual average...if you bet 100 races @ $2.00 each you have $200 invested...if you hit 30% at an ave mutual of $6.70 you break even...if you bet all favs I doubt that your mutual would be over $5.00. if you only hit 25% but are more selective on price and not betting many favs you can show a profit.

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02-10-2013, 01:43 PM	#11
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Ray: I think I participated in the 1990 or 1991 version. Obviously no internet so it was all manual input off the DRF. Think I had Synergism 2. A couple of buddies and I flew up from L.A. I remember the area up and down the street was pretty run down. I think the Hilton was the only nice place as I think it was newer at the time. Hopefully it's changed for the better. It was my first tournament and I had only been 'capping for a couple of years. I made no money but at least I was able to walk out on Sunday with a decent chunk of my starting bankroll. I think you had to put up $500 to play. Rousso was definitely legit and a very good capper. I think he used to sit and cap with Brohamer and Quinn as Quinn always got a box for the big meet. He had a 900 number set up - might have been part of Selvin's Handicappers Reports 900 numbers at the time along with Jeff Siegel. Believe he did become a lawyer. I think Doc recommended 2 horse betting more for psychological reasons given the group of folks I saw at his seminars. A lot of folks were having trouble understanding the concepts and probably didn't have the makeup for long run outs. He did say that 2 horse betting was actually more profitable than one horse. I never agreed but I was happy to give up some profit for more peace of min. I guess it depends on one's hit rates but I think it's very tough nowadays to be grinding it out as a 2 horse bettor on lower priced horses and make a profit. Odds are much lower on those horses nowadays vs. the late 80's and early 90's. Plus, you have to keep your "mistakes" or "oversights" down to almost none - there is no margin for error. You have to remove yourself emotionally and run it like a business. I think Bill's example shows that you have to do what you're comfortable with at a betting level you're comfortable with.

02-23-2013, 06:59 PM	#12
James T. AlwNW1X Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: Moreno Valley, CA Posts: 12	I'm not sure I get it. I've been told that one can achieve about a 30% win just by betting on the favorite. So how is 25% better?

02-23-2013, 10:03 PM	#13
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	depends on your mutual average...if you bet 100 races @ $2.00 each you have $200 invested...if you hit 30% at an ave mutual of $6.70 you break even...if you bet all favs I doubt that your mutual would be over $5.00. if you only hit 25% but are more selective on price and not betting many favs you can show a profit.