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02-05-2020, 11:27 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 111
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Betting with an edge
or Optimal Betting which is based theoretically on the horses chances of winning is a load of crap IMO and is just something that confuses the issue.
If I handicap a race and I like a horse that is going off at 4-1, I know if I bet $100 win I am going to turn a profit of $400 if my horse wins. If my horse is going off 5/2 and I bet $100 win I am going to turn a profit of $250. That's all I have to know. Why confuse matters with bogus formulas. |
02-05-2020, 05:09 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Glad to have you in the pari-mutuel pools.
Richard |
02-06-2020, 04:03 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 111
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Richard:
As a part time player I am a 35% winner with an average win mutual of $8.00. Thats a ROI of 40% I am satisfied with my success. These book writers try to be slick with some of their advice and systems. If they were so successful why do they need to write books? I use basics and I play the percentages. I meet my goals. Cant beat that. |
02-07-2020, 10:08 PM | #4 |
cratman
Join Date: May 2006
Location: DC area
Posts: 83
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People who write books
People can write books for a variety of reasons. Many and perhaps most do not "need" to write them. I for one am glad that some do.
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02-08-2020, 04:20 PM | #5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 111
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Quote:
There are many good books out there that are a great introduction to horse racing that teach you winning factors and angles that trainers use to prepare horses that are important to help you to become a winning selector. If you cannot pick winners you are dead in this game. Then there are books written that in my opinion are useless. The authors come up with useless ideas and different formula’s that sound good but just confuse the issues. One is “ Optimal Betting.” If I handicap a 10 horse race and I find a stick out going off at 4-1 I’m supposed to complicate matters by wondering what are his true chances of winning? |
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