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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 08-22-2016, 12:24 PM   #1
Tim Y
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Who is really involved in pace?

In the traditional sense (Teletimer style timing) the fractions are set by the FIRST horse to cross the activated sensor line (they activate about 5 seconds before the first horse comes by in order that trash blowing by or birds do not set them off prematurely). Horses close by are then effected by that pace of race, since they are required to output a significant (if it is fast) amount of energy just to keep up.

Horses more than about 5 to 7 lenghts back are not MAKING nor PROMPTING that pace. They have NOTHING TO DO WITH EITHER SETTING IT OR SPEEDING IT UP. We must then HOPE that the beaten lengths given as well as that altered fractional difference are adequately reported to evaluate ANYTHING about their contributions to today's pace of race. Also, one has to project that they MOVE and exactly the right time, the pace up front stays as projected, AND their is a path available for them to get up there.

Another very very important thing: EXERTION. The longer physical exertion is maintained, the greater the oxygen debt.
http://www.teachpe.com/anatomy/oxygen_debt.php

THE longer the time in oxygen debt or the great the early stresses on exertion, builds the greatest LATE energy demands on the individual be it human or animal.

So in a normal lively paced race, we are asking the off pace horse to INCREASE its anaerobic physiology exactly at the time that it is the most difficult (when early exertion has drained oxygen reserves) NO wonder earlier horses win more often: IT IS PHYSIOLOGICALLY easier. Remember Huey Mahl: for each unit of energy lost at the second call it takes TWO units to EQUAL it late, and that is just to TIE. At many of the bull rings I play that ratio has increased(especially in the cooler temperatures and the off going) to 1:3 or for short times 1:4.

We ALL like the Aldebaran's, Zenyatta's and Silky Sullivan's of this world but just remember, if these types are NOT head and shoulders above the rest, they just don't win their fair share HISTORICALLY.

Look at all the match races: One goes out and the other chases the whole way around: Zev/Papyrus, Seabiscuit/War Admiral, Swaps/Nashua. Convenience/Typecast, Chris Everet/Miss Musket, Alsab/Whirlaway.
Matches within a race (Affirmed/Alydar, Easy Goer/Sunday Silence etc). Speed goes out then the closer looks okay but just never quite gets up.

We deal almost directly with the horses on, or near the pace of the race. Why guess on the others?

Unless the match up SHOWS the pace of race that the speed ball contended against, is the VERY SIMILAR pace of race that the closer contended against, the latter should be downplayed substantially. That is the physiologically LEAST able time to come up with the extra in any part of the contest. Using a pace of race the is SLOWER early (for the line choice on the closer) often projects a greater 3r fraction velocity because this animal was NOT taxed early and we get a false projection of late moving, BUT FROM A SLOWER pace of race. Be very careful to project on similar paces of races.
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Old 11-17-2016, 09:34 AM   #2
lone speed
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Thumbs up Great post

Tim..

This was a great post on the importance of early energy exertions and its effect on the the match up....

I just happened to read it now even though you wrote it months ago.

I had always wanted to write about the exertion of early pace efforts and oxygen debt as you provided a great link to this importance...
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Old 12-08-2016, 12:05 AM   #3
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K.I.S.S. and Occam's razor

One of the common errors I see almost daily at the track is FOOLING ONESELF with too much information to result in paralysis by analysis.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sarah-...b_8265428.html

As Herbert A. Simon says, “...a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention”.

As I heard a recent lecturer explain how it was getting more and more difficult to teach people in college had a lot of what the speaker said (in relation to the internet) "We are drowning in facts but at the same time we are confusing ourselves and becoming overall LESS knowledgeable about things. We have to have a better grasp on what is really relevant and what it not."

I believe anyone starting out, even if you are having modest success, does suffer from this malady.

Go back to the beginning and heed the wisdom of Occam's razor: Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

We have, at out disposal, a very accurate accounting of how a grouped amalgam of diverse horse styles and abilities are to come together in what appears to be a random chaotic effort. Find what you believe is the closest thing to the predicted pace of race, then find the animals that can contend on that. Find out how your particular track runs (i.e. the inner at Aqueduct is a speed paradise) and overlay that information at the time to wager.

Keep It Simple Stupid (K.I.S.S.) the thing I always heard at grand rounds when figuring out the prospective differential diagnosis of a condition. Start with what it is MOST like and MOST of the time you will be right. Because we are PREDICTING OUTCOMES, just like the differential diagnosis, we need to review the MANY predicted outcomes that COULD happen by things NO ONE could predict: bumping, steadied at a crucial point, missing the break, rider falls off etc etc. NEVER think of a race as having a SINGLE winner or a single outcome. Find out how the crowd ranks the probabilities that YOU have discerned and bet the logical overlays IF THERE ARE ANY.


Of course your own feedback it paramount to knowing if you are braking up the correct tree, but SHED some of the noise (less that accurate accessory information) and see what you get. QUALITY not QUANTITY is the key.

My late friend Al was one of the most competent users of the Sartin method I EVER MET. WHY? He just used the basic readouts, searched for value and NEVER confused himself. First day he used it, he hit a horse over 20/1
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Last edited by Tim Y; 12-08-2016 at 12:10 AM.
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Old 12-08-2016, 09:57 AM   #4
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start by throwing out the trainer and rider stats. it is THE HORSE THE HORSE and THE HORSE that matters.
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