2016 Santa Anita Big Cap

[lone speed]

Santa Anita's "marquee" race is this Saturday.....

Maybe this race has lost its luster with the $10 million Dubai World Cup coming up in two weeks and the purse of the Big Cap is a "mere" $1million.

California Chrome, Hoppertunity, and Keen Ice are all headed for the big race in Dubai; thousand of miles away on the other side of the globe. The remaining contenders are:

The field:



We have the top weighted horse and the "Big Horse" Pro Tem in Effinex as Bill Lyster so eloquently alluded that the horse owner named this horse after his EX..



We have a key tandem race from the San Antonio..



I always prefer to evaluate each horse individually on how they were trained up to a race; not because it came from a tandem race. In looking at the San Antonio race chart, we see that Imperative finished ahead of Donworth but Donworth was coming off a 8 month-layoff and Donworth finished only a 1/2 length behind Imperative with this much-needed prep race for the Big Cap. It also gets a favorable weight exchange with Imperative. Imperative picks up one lb while Donworth drops 2 lbs. This race is at the marathon distance of a mile and 1/4 on dirt.

A Star is Rising: the transformed new shipper



The optional claiming race was a huge effort by General A Rod who is now trained by Todd Pletcher; who is looking for his first Santa Anita Big Cap victory. General A Rod made a huge "middle move" against the fast early pace over a muddy surface. The expected early pace is expected to be set by Donworth.

Until Saturday....

[Bill Lyster]

Nice race to employ The Hats marathon method:

Donworth 2-2-1 to the mile call on the lead at 135.76
Effinex closing 5-3-1 to mile call at 136.10
General A Rod 2-2-1 to mile call at 135.00, pretty spiffy race from the looks of it.

My pick would be the General A Rod and Effinex just in case the two early pressers burn each other out. Of course that is without seeing the best mile times of the other entrants not included in the above posting. Always fear 'the Dorf"

Bill

[lone speed]

Greetings Bill Lyster; A.K.A. "Marathon Man" Here are the Bris past performances which includes the possible "Dorfs"....

[lone speed]

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Nice race to employ The Hats marathon method:

Donworth 2-2-1 to the mile call on the lead at 135.76
Effinex closing 5-3-1 to mile call at 136.10
General A Rod 2-2-1 to mile call at 135.00, pretty spiffy race from the looks of it.

My pick would be the General A Rod and Effinex just in case the two early pressers burn each other out. Of course that is without seeing the best mile times of the other entrants not included in the above posting. Always fear 'the Dorf"

Bill

Thanks for all the info Lone Speed. It changes the picture a bit:

Donworth 2 back: 2-1-1-1 at 135.00 @ mile, fits nicely with last race data;

Imperative: 4-2-2 at 135.60;

Effinex closing 5-3-1 to mile call at 136.10; also ran 4-2-2 off of a 135.00 mile

General A Rod 2-2-1 to mile call at 135.00,
pretty spiffy race from the looks of it - might have benefited from sloppy track, but won by 7+;

Melatonin: 3-3-1-1 to mile call at 135.40

Revised look: Donworth, A Rod and Melatonin all close to speed fractions passing the mile mark around 135 and maybe change; Melatonin and Effinex perhaps a little off the pace moving to pass leaders; Melatonin's last was first route in what looks like a very protected campaign; both Mel and Eff can win from outside of top two or three spots.

Could be a blanket finish with Donworth and Genl A Rod. I would look for the best two price horses plus Melatonin and Effinex in an exacta.

[lone speed]

Bill Lyster:

Thanks again for your "Marathon Method" analysis in the Big Cap...

I had a hard time separating General a Rod and Donworth; therefore I will leave it at that. The positive angle where I might give General a Rod a slight nod is that General a Rod has already raced a marathon distance in last year's Belmont Stakes. General a Rod had carried 126lbs and raced up close on the early pace before fading down the stretch.

Good skills...

[lone speed]

Hope you had that Bill.....

My choice ran up the creek and last....

[lone speed]

I thought these were interesting comments by DRF writer Mike Watchmaker in one of those rare articles that I was able to read for free..

link:
http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-s...l-major-stakes

Here's what Watchmaker wrote about the Big Cap race:

Example 3 – Donworth in the Santa Anita Handicap. I liked Donworth in the Big Cap and I’ll be the first to admit he did not run well, even accounting for his clipping heels into the far turn.

However, given how well he ran in his comeback in last month’s San Antonio after a pace trip, Donworth was supposed to be the controlling speed Saturday. He was supposed to pull the trip Melatonin got. Short of that, Donworth was supposed to be right with Melatonin early.

Instead, despite having every opportunity to move up between horses early, Mario Gutierrez wrangled Donworth back, effectively conceding his best path to victory. And Donworth clearly resented the strategy. Of course, Melatonin wound up being the controlling speed that Donworth should have been, and he drew off to post a resounding upset.

Here’s the point. When horseplayers can’t rely on horses employing the running styles they have established over time, it means they can’t effectively project how a race will unfold. If bettors can’t rely on a speed duel happening when it absolutely is supposed to happen, chaos will ensue, and reasons for playing this game will evaporate. And as I’ve said before, take the betting out of this game, and it becomes polo.

As the sport is currently structured, the solution really lies in the stewards’ stand. I know some are going to find that unpalatable, but the stewards are the front line when it comes to racing integrity. If a transparent program is put into place that requires connections to explain to stewards why a horse didn’t, for example, show the speed he was expected to show, it might make questionable strategic decisions less commonplace. And that would be only good.