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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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08-01-2018, 02:10 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Saratoga
Saratoga race 10
This is a 6f race with 10 entries after scratches. The 7 Smash Williams 7/2 ML and the 11 Discreet Mission 9/2 are my two main win horses. My win bets will be on both horses if they are both above 5/2, if either or both are below 5/2 I will pass the race. |
08-01-2018, 02:45 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,124
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Good luck Richie.
Tim
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08-01-2018, 03:54 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Thanks
ThanksTim.
Hope this one pays as well as that one the other day. Richie |
08-01-2018, 04:08 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,124
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Did you give that money back?. lol
Tim
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Trust but verify |
08-01-2018, 04:19 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Ha ha
No I decided to keep it and use some of it today.
I forgot to put in the #8 as my third horse, if he goes off at 10/1 or higher he will be a nice saver. Richie |
08-01-2018, 06:03 PM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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notes
Richard
Wishing you great skill ( You have that in the bank) and Luck Here are my notes I hope you get a good result, This one has me stumped Race 10 CL16,000 Nonwinners of 2 races lifetime 3 and up males The conditions of the race show that all these horses have only 1 win - their maiden win. Now they're trying to win again against winners. Horse 1 Scratch Horse 2 Can Go - Just won against MC12000 at Finger Lakes at 2.6/1 Line 1 86 83.5 169.5 E/L 2.5 Horse 3 Zento He has been spending lots of time in the barn He won at MCs30 at AQU at 9.1/1 He should have shown more in his return at Fingerlakes Then he went on another layoff He's been stabled here at Sar. but he only shows 1 so-so workout in the last two weeks Rating line 2 87.9 81.1 160 E/L 6.8 Horse 4 Lake Party He ran a plus race in line 2 against open 20,000 claimers, The track was a fast -24 DTV His 87 87.2 174 with a -0.2 looks a little over his normal track abilities Line 2 Horse 5 Musicality He tried CL40000 first try against winners after beating MC state 25's He comes in off a 157-day layoff He had the lead for the first two fractions but faded. in line 1. I will rate him using line 2. 92.3 81.2 173.5 He shows excellent workout Horse 6 Scratch Horse 7 Smash Williams I Ortiz and Pletcher. Line 2 is his maiden special win at GP for $46000 He tried Open 30,000 but ran okay early but nothing late Then another 5 weeks layoff with mild workouts Because of the big drop and form issues I will rate him from line 2 92.4 75.1 167.5 17.3 E/L Horse 8 Go Big or Go Home His recent form is off This is the second race off a layoff He shows a good workout 9 days ago His ratings will come from line 6 which was his MC40 win 89 87 176 E/L 2 Horse 9 Scratch Horse 10 Street Cat Sam He just ran a plus race against this exact same condition He is in peak form with a gate work 6 days ago Line 1 91.9 85.3 177.1 E/L 6.6 Horse 11 Discreet Mission Tough call here. His best races at 1 mile. He comes off a 47-day layoff and he has beautiful workouts All I can do is take the adjusted line 1 readouts 91.2 86.4 177.6 E/L 4.8 Horse 12 Analyze Your Luck he started his career winning a $100.000 MS at Belmont His last plus race was at the weird 8.2 furlong distance at Finger Lakes in an allowance 18 He failed at short odds in both tries at Finger Lakes I will rate him the adjusted line 2 85 84 169 E/L 1.0 Horse 13 Money Laundering Beat MCs25's just about a year ago here at SAR. Then he went on a 296-day layoff He ran well in his return against this level in line 1 But then went back in the barn I will rate him from line 1 since the workouts are not too good and poorly spaced |
08-01-2018, 06:16 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Two min to post
#7 5/2 5.00 w #11 7/2 5.00w # 8 8/1 2.00 see what happens |
08-01-2018, 06:28 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Not Bad
$!2.00 invested. 22.75 returned.10.75 profit.
I will take it. |
08-01-2018, 06:34 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Thanks for your breakdown Bill
I always like to see how others break down a race. Rmath |
08-01-2018, 06:40 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,124
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Nice job Richie,
Tim
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