Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-31-2014, 02:01 AM   #1
Ryan.p.coli
Grade 1
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 121
Is this drop suspicious?

Would anyone consider this drop dramatic enough to be considered "suspicious?"

Name:  Class Drop.PNG
Views: 645
Size:  81.5 KB
__________________
Follow the Sartin Methodology on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SartinMethod
Ryan.p.coli is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2014, 03:24 AM   #2
Ryan.p.coli
Grade 1
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 121
I mean drop in class* - Excuse the lack of proofreading, it is late.
__________________
Follow the Sartin Methodology on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SartinMethod
Ryan.p.coli is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2014, 06:20 AM   #3
CaptDon100
Grade 2
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Fells Point MD
Posts: 95
While this is posted, how come the AGE does not match the dates. I see this a lot. Sorry to jump into your post with an other question.
CaptDon100 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2014, 06:23 AM   #4
gandalf380
Grade 1
 
gandalf380's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: central islip ny
Posts: 1,090
Suspicious?

I don't consider this a drop. The horse returns from a 14 month layoff and wins. He is then stepped up in class and runs so-so (maybe a bounce). He is then shipped to Sar and entered into what may be a race that is at least equivalent to the level he ran at last time out.
__________________
Check out my daily picks for Saratoga in the Saratoga Special
http://www.thisishorseracing.com
gandalf380 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2014, 12:15 PM   #5
MikeB
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
I don't see any problem. The horse won at $40K at PRX, moved up, showed nothing, and is dropping. Probably not dropping as much as the numbers would indicate on their face. I assume that a $40K race at SAR is higher class than the same class at PRX.

As to the follow up age question, the info looks correct. The horse was foaled in 2008, is listed as 6 in 2014, and is running in a race for 3yo and up.
MikeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2014, 12:25 PM   #6
Ryan.p.coli
Grade 1
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 121
Gandalf & Mike-

Thanks for the responses- this is helpful. I'm still not the best with class.

I think my thought was "Should I be concerned that he's going from a 60K OC race to an unrestricted claiming race?." Won at 40K OC territory... was wondering why the trainer wouldn't go for a cheaper OC claiming race- like the one in May 2014. I've been getting pretty good with fractions & pace- but I do get burned from time to time by mis-evaluating moves in class. For example- I'll label a class drop as "Suspicious" when in reality it's a logical drop in class.

On second look (I was up pretty late handicapping), 2 races back was a NX-3 and the last race was unrestricted.
__________________
Follow the Sartin Methodology on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SartinMethod
Ryan.p.coli is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2014, 01:29 PM   #7
Hoof 11
Grade 1
 
Hoof 11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 761
Here's a good book.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Handicappe.../dp/0964849348
Hoof 11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2014, 02:21 PM   #8
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
no

Hi Ryan

The June 16 race is an Allowance Optional Claimer

Crushing or no other horse in that race was offered for the $40,000
claiming price So that race really is a $40,000 Allowance race

Today's race is a $62000 Purse The horse is a $40,000 claimer winner
of a 400 day layoff They have $40,000 OC claimers at Parx but they are rare
The connections want to run now so why not run for $62000 at Saratoga ?


GS
Bill

Name:  Op claimer.PNG
Views: 513
Size:  194.8 KB

Last edited by Bill V.; 07-31-2014 at 02:28 PM.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2014, 02:21 PM   #9
DaveEdwards
Grade 1
 
DaveEdwards's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
Agree with MikeB & Gandalf.

Interestingly it's last race may not have been a bounce either. The pace of it's last race may well have been the issue that ironed this horse out at DEL. Once it was obvious the horse couldn't win I'm sure the jockey saved it for a future engagements.
DaveEdwards is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2014, 08:53 PM   #10
sureshotlink
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: the great race place
Posts: 205
The one that looked somewhat suspicious is the 6 horse in that race. Who
claims a horse last out for 62500 then immediately drops them in a 40k claimer specially since the horse has won at the 0C62.5.


Paul link
sureshotlink is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Looks like we have something Bill V. General Discussion 6 09-01-2010 10:35 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:12 PM.