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Old 02-07-2007, 08:33 PM   #1
racer100
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Smile one way to handicap successfully - please review

Greetings to all,
I am new on this board and a young kid so I don't claim to have a lot of experience with handicapping. I gave been doing this for about 2 years now as a hobby and making some good pocket change along the way. I wanted to start this thread to show my way of handicapping and get some serious feedback from you all as the experts with Speculator and RDSS. I recently started using Speculator 1.60 and with the generous help of Mr. Craven I am making some good progress in using it. Ok lets get to business here.
The race I am showing is for the Tampa 02-06-07 and in particular race #1, #2 and especially #4. Races #1 and #2 are chaulk..I think anybody with a bit of common sense can pick those without using any program. I show a screenshot of those just for your reference so you see how my way of handicapping works. Race #4 is a good one..a $396 trifecta which is a good return for your efforts.
Along with Spec 160 I use a program called Speed Handicapper 5.0 which gives me the Carroll Speed ratings. The CS ratings are an improved version of Beyer ratings and they show what the public does not see basically. Along with those I use the Moss Pace ratings as a secondary check. I posted race #4 in the way Speed Handicapper gave it to me after picking one representative line for each horse with 100% Track Constants applied and calculated. The result speaks for itself and what my question is here for you -- how could I have handicapped this race with Spec 1.60 or RDSS to arrive at the same result? I asked Mr. Craven and he was generous enough to send me his analysis step by step which I will post here as well a bit later. First I wanted to get some feedback from you to see how I can "marry" the PPs selected with Speed Handicapper and feed them into Spec160..or can Spec160 be used to come up with the same results on its own? Please pay attention to the dates of the PP for each horse which can then be selected in the Spec160 and analysis be ran afterwards. I look forward your input and enjoy the workout!
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Old 02-07-2007, 08:35 PM   #2
racer100
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Tampa Race #1 020607
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Old 02-07-2007, 08:36 PM   #3
racer100
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Tampa Race #2 020607
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Old 02-08-2007, 06:00 AM   #4
admin
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Spec160

Hi Race100

I did race 4 from Tampa 2/6/07 with Spec160
I think it did a good job getting the winner

Here is my BLBL

My contenders and lines used were

#1. line 1
#2 line 1
#4 line 3
#5 line 1
#6 line 1
#7 line 1
#9 line 1
#10 line 3
#12 line 1

I entered these lines and calculated these contenders,
Then I eliminated the horses that were not the top 5 Total Energy or Primary Line score
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Last edited by admin; 02-08-2007 at 06:09 AM.
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Old 02-08-2007, 06:17 AM   #5
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full screen

Here are my contenders before I eliminate the horses that were not
top 5 Total Energy or PRL =Primary Line Score
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Old 02-08-2007, 06:33 AM   #6
shipper
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Racer100: In response to your question on how one might handicap the 4th at Tam on 2/6 with RDSS and/or SPEC160, it would be pretty straightforward. Simply select the best of last three pacelines, i.e. Adjusted Speed Rating, preferring turf route. If no turf, prefer dirt/polytrack route over sprint. The BL/BL ranking for each program is the same: 5-6-4, which gives you the winner on top as well as the cold exacta and trifecta. Hope this helps...Marty

Last edited by shipper; 02-08-2007 at 06:35 AM. Reason: incomplete
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Old 02-08-2007, 09:10 AM   #7
Ted Craven
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Hey Marty! Great minds think alike (or is it that your mind has influenced me so much I now think like you...).

Racer: First, welcome to Pace and Cap and very best wishes with your research into Spec160 (I know you're aiming for RDSS). You're welcomed to post the Spec160 screenshots we worked up, or your own variations on them. Regarding Speed Handicapper, since this is the Speculator forum, perhaps lets keep discussion of that software to its current comparative role in your own investigations of Spec. Not proscribing reference to it or screenshots, just emphacizing the primary focus in this forum. If you work a race in SH which appears to perform better than Spec and you can't figure out how to make Spec work better, please post your analysis and I'm sure it will stimulate specific response and learnings, such as Bill's and Marty's above.

Again, welcome!

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 02-08-2007 at 09:18 AM.
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Old 02-08-2007, 09:15 AM   #8
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by admin View Post
#6 line 1
Bill, what happens if you use line 2 for the #6? Though still a TP Poly line, a better Primary Line Score (Perceptor screen) and a good running line.

I found that helped produce the cold trifecta Marty referred to (and which Racer found with SH software).

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Old 02-08-2007, 10:49 AM   #9
racer100
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Ted's Spec160 handicapping this race

One small comment: I posted the screens of Speed Handicapper not because I view it as a superior tool to Spec160. I simply did it to show "outside the box" thinking. I don't know about you all, but if I find a tool that helps me handicap better and more directly - I will use it! Speculator is a great tool to use.
Ted Craven has been generous to walk me step by step into his way of handicapping this race. I will quote his original comments. He selected different PPs than I selected with SH but arrived at the same result. Here is his reasoning.

"#4 Murphy (Show horse) – look at the F3 panel in Spec160 and observe the Perceptor 1 Total rank for recent turf lines. Line #3 is a standout."
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Old 02-08-2007, 10:50 AM   #10
racer100
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#5 Unleash (the winner) – same answer re line 1
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