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Old 02-08-2007, 10:52 AM   #11
racer100
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#6 Bernstein (place horse) – same answer re line 2. I know TP poly projects too fast sometimes, but if you must use it to get a route for comparison, might as well use the best.
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Old 02-08-2007, 10:53 AM   #12
racer100
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#10 Pletchie – line 4 is within the most recent 3 turf lines, and is a better running line than line 5 (which is technically a better Primary line score); also look at the lengths ahead for line 4 (perhaps RDSS shows it better): the horse fought all the way for the win, an indicator of expending more energy in that fight than velocity alone might indicate; thus I feel line 4 is his best line, or at least a line consistently chosen with how other horses’ lines were chosen
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Old 02-08-2007, 10:54 AM   #13
racer100
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The other lines were the same. You will notice that the BL/BL and Primary Line Score (from the BL/BL screen) are in precise finish order, and Total Energy also ranked the 3 finishers in top 3. If you use these lines in Spec160, like RDSS, you get a much more satisfactory result (line score differences with so many horses due to 1 rank differences in several factors, due to rounding differences between the 2 software):
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Old 02-08-2007, 10:58 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by admin View Post
Hi Race100

My contenders and lines used were

#1. line 1
#2 line 1
#4 line 3
#5 line 1
#6 line 1
#7 line 1
#9 line 1
#10 line 3
#12 line 1
Using the above lines here is what HTR came up with in the MaxVel Module. Variant 2 option (raw times). :
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Old 02-08-2007, 10:58 AM   #15
racer100
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what does this mean? "TP poly projects too fast sometimes"

Quote:
Originally Posted by shipper View Post
Racer100: In response to your question on how one might handicap the 4th at Tam on 2/6 with RDSS and/or SPEC160, it would be pretty straightforward. Simply select the best of last three pacelines, i.e. Adjusted Speed Rating, preferring turf route. If no turf, prefer dirt/polytrack route over sprint. The BL/BL ranking for each program is the same: 5-6-4, which gives you the winner on top as well as the cold exacta and trifecta. Hope this helps...Marty
Bill and Marty,
Thanks for your great posts in reference to handicapping this race. Can you explain what "TP poly" means? I have no clue about these abbreviations. Thanks
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Old 02-08-2007, 11:22 AM   #16
Ted Craven
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It has been observed that (at least) 2 Polytrack surface tracks TP (Turfway Park) and KEE (Keeneland) seem to record final times which are noticeably faster than other dirt tracks, so when you use pacelines from those tracks in today’s race, those lines can tend to make the horse look too fast, despite the Inter Track Variant supplied by TrackMaster (and embedded in the Raw Speed Rating) which is supposed to equalize track speed differences. (I made a similar comment regarding TP lines in the RDSS forum Tampa Tuesday 3 thread re TAM 02/06 Race #1). In Speculator, you can slow down the final and incremental times of pacelines on the manual edit screen by entering a positive or negative number of tenths of seconds. This will naturally also be in RDSS, for use when required.

Just enter a single positive or negative number in the MAN column and it will be distributed over the final and incremental times. Experiment a bit, but be cautious and check your results. For example, with TP and KEE, see what slowing down the final time 2-3 seconds does.

Ted
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Old 02-08-2007, 11:29 AM   #17
racer100
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Here are my contenders before I eliminate the horses that were not
top 5 Total Energy or PRL =Primary Line Score
Bill would you be kind enough to post your Energy and PRL step by step reasoning for picking your lines? Ted's approach to me with Preceptor is pretty straightforward, but I would like to see your other ways of arriving at the same result just for reference. In other races the Perceptor might not work well but your approach might come to the rescue. Thanks
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Old 02-08-2007, 11:36 AM   #18
racer100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
It has been observed that (at least) 2 Polytrack surface tracks TP (Turfway Park) and KEE (Keeneland) seem to record final times which are noticeably faster than other dirt tracks, so when you use pacelines from those tracks in today’s race, those lines can tend to make the horse look too fast, despite the Inter Track Variant supplied by TrackMaster (and embedded in the Raw Speed Rating) which is supposed to equalize track speed differences. (I made a similar comment regarding TP lines in the RDSS forum Tampa Tuesday 3 thread re TAM 02/06 Race #1). In Speculator, you can slow down the final and incremental times of pacelines on the manual edit screen by entering a positive or negative number of tenths of seconds. This will naturally also be in RDSS, for use when required.

Just enter a single positive or negative number in the MAN column and it will be distributed over the final and incremental times. Experiment a bit, but be cautious and check your results. For example, with TP and KEE, see what slowing down the final time 2-3 seconds does.

Ted
Great explanation Ted. Thank you much. Perhaps TrackMaster can update their calculations sometimes soon for these tracks. I'll send them and email and see what they have to say.
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Old 02-08-2007, 11:46 AM   #19
Ted Craven
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Racer,

Good luck with that! Meanwhile, we probably have what we need to stay ahead of Equibase/TrackMaster's ITV updates just by handicapping and comparing projections to actual results. Then use either the 'Manual' adjust or the 'Mental' adjust.

(If you find yourself disagreeing with projections from other tracks, in RDSS, there is a way to save such a customized time adjustment, and reuse it thereafter, i.e. FROM a track/surface/distance TO a group of tracks/surface/distance).

Ted
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Old 02-08-2007, 12:40 PM   #20
Lefty
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One thing you guys might do is go ahead and tell us the results. I always have to take the time to look them up. Just a thought...
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