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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology

 
 
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Old 09-23-2009, 04:08 AM   #1
Bill V.
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+ 0 +/0 Plus zero Plus within a zero

Hello Ted

I think this would be a good feature.
In the follow up Doc and Jim often talk about the value
of taking the time to do your plus zero and plus within a zero
notations. I think its an important step and since I have been doing it
I feel my line selection and contender selection has
improved. Would something like what I have worked up in the picture here be possible. I hope it would. Using the same type drop down boxes
like you have for the projected pace, rather than numbers can you
make the 3 notations and the user can select one for each line
maybe a + 0 and +/0
thanks
Bill
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Old 09-23-2009, 07:46 AM   #2
noddub62
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Great idea Bill! Ii would be a great help as well as a comment line.

Bud
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Old 09-23-2009, 11:16 AM   #3
Tim Y
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It is far better to use the two calculated vales TPP and E/EP to evaluate objectively, and not subjectively by beaten lengths which have NO relation to the POR.
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Old 09-23-2009, 12:08 PM   #4
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good idea Bill...will be useful to the " form cycle" cappers here..

as u can see this horse can run a few good races in a row...and after 2 bad ones he looked like he was coming back to form...he won and paid $5.60

.mike
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Old 09-23-2009, 01:54 PM   #5
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good idea Bill...will be useful to the " form cycle" cappers here..

as u can see this horse can run a few good races in a row...and after 2 bad ones he looked like he was coming back to form...he won and paid $5.60

.mike
Hi Mike,

Although, as you said, the horse ran two BAD races I don't think the horse was "coming back to form", I don't think it ever went "out of form".
Let's start by looking at the 10th race back. The horse shows that it can win AT CT AND AT 9 furlongs, but look at the class of the race, NW1X. What types of horses are most likely to be in this type of race? Well, if you have a horse that just broke its' maiden, the most logical choices for that horses next race are either NW2L or NW1X. At that point in this horses career, he had ALREADY won 5 races out of 16 starts, which is a little bit better than a 30% win rate. Those 5 wins consisted of a maiden win and claiming wins, otherwise it would not be eligible for this race. This is a much better horse than those horses that remain "1 for something" while continuing to try and win that 2nd race. Appropriately, the horse went off as the favorite and won, for the 6th time in 17 races at that point.
So why didn't the horse win at CT at 9 furlongs in the race 3 back? Well, the class"SH" (Starter Handicap) presents a completely different challenge than NW1X. Now this horse is facing other horses with multiple wins. Not as easy as NW1X. No doubt this horse went off the favorite in the race since it was coming off a win. Ok, so I give the horse a "legitimate" excuse for this race. In the race 2 back this horse was on the turf, perhaps for the first time. Obviously, the horse did not care for the surface. Another "legitimate" excuse. In the horses last race, a return to a surface it likes and in a race where it can be competitive resulted in a good race.
So was the horse really ever out of form? I don't think so.
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Old 09-23-2009, 04:44 PM   #6
Ted Craven
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Thanks Bill, I'll look to see if anything like that is feasible. I think you'd want a 4th state as well: 'irrelevant line' (e.g. intervening surface or distance switch). Also, will you be wanting to save your choices, for the next time you load that race, or that horse?

IMO, you want a combination of positional, beaten length, race conditions, surface and energy readouts to know more about form cycles. A race where the horse ran in the back half of a field, never making a move, or even fading against a hot Pace of Race doesn't mean that an otherwise poor looking effort is magically a good one because of good E/ep or Tpp readouts - the horse didn't produce those numbers: the POR did. Tempering those hot energy figs with apparent positional effort, or ability to close, comes closer to knowing if the horse was advancing, declining or stable in its cycle. Conversely, an even effort in the back half of the field against a torrid pace, or 1 call of effort after a layoff or against a too fast pace doesn't necessarily mean decline.

By pattern recognition practise, and by showing the Original and Energy panels together, you can pretty well see all this at a glance.

But let's see if there's a visually impactful way to show this (and yes, Bud and others), permit user comments by running line or by race as a whole.

Ted
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Old 09-23-2009, 07:43 PM   #7
Bill V.
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guts

Thanks Ted

I am confident you can do it .. I think the base plus, zero, and plus within a zero is fine. If you would like to add a 4th option that is you right.
But like Tom Brohamer says "The horse should always show something".
Just because the trainer is crazy. I'm looking for a horse with a desire to do well. I want to see a horse perform well often in its history more often then once in the last three or 4 races.

All the points you mentioned are noted as well as Tim's factors.
But to me these factors are ways to rate a horse against itself
which is all well and good but to quote Wm. Scott How Will Your Horse Run today against THESE horses. Doc sad it best The difference the methodology has over other systems is. "We bet RACES they bet horses"
The value I get out of doing the notations is I find horses with heart and guts Lots of Pluses with good APV and Class are horses that will give you a good effort
I also find horses that run bad most of the time but somehow it turns in a good race once in its ten races
and of course it has good E/ep or whatever but few plus races and low apv class means going back a few lines might not be as good as that line looks

Mike and FTL all ready have helped me even more to see the good that can come from doing this

I hope you can make it a manual user option I hope you don't want to
have RDSS make the call on some set rules. to me that would defeat the purpose

Bill
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Old 09-23-2009, 09:22 PM   #8
Ted Craven
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If we end up with such a column, it would be optional (like the Powerline marker) and even if I give a crack at letting the software select an initial + O (+) designation, it would always be over-ridable by the user. Same with a Visual Running Style designation: user could/should double-check whatever the software thinks. There are just too many circumstances to check, I think, or legitimate differences of approach, to add yet another computer generated column which ends up at odds with what you may know better. Put the choice/responsibility on the human (if the human wants to accept it )

Ted
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Old 09-24-2009, 12:32 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
If we end up with such a column, it would be optional (like the Powerline marker) and even if I give a crack at letting the software select an initial + O (+) designation, it would always be over-ridable by the user. Same with a Visual Running Style designation: user could/should double-check whatever the software thinks. There are just too many circumstances to check, I think, or legitimate differences of approach, to add yet another computer generated column which ends up at odds with what you may know better. Put the choice/responsibility on the human (if the human wants to accept it )

Ted
Ted,
lol
I KNOW you know what you are doing, but since you said, "even if I give a crack at letting the software select an initial + O (+) designation" and since you also said, "There are just too many circumstances to check", I just feel compelled to tell you,"been there, done that", and it ain't fun! So I know what you mean!
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Old 09-24-2009, 04:41 AM   #10
Bill V.
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You Pick

Hi Ted

I really think this should be a user choice option
Just like the projected pace boxes

What is the reason they are left to the user to judge the pace ?
shouldn't the + o (0) notations be left to the user ?

I am hoping and maybe this will make my idea clearer

Here is horse 3 from AP Starting from the bottom up I have judged
its lines one at a time. So far I have all plus races
I am up to line 7 and I have hit the drop box I will choose the zero
line 1-6 are blank till I choose a notation .

I hope you could do this. In my opinion any override from what you
or equibase comes up with is all well and good but Is a Sartin Methodology
program really suppose to have someone else make pace line decisions for you ?
I think an override system is overkill

Bill
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Last edited by Bill V.; 09-24-2009 at 04:44 AM.
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