Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-04-2017, 06:24 PM   #21
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,587
FTL

While working races I have noticed a good part of the time the winner
is in the top three on the sort, the problem for me is getting the right
two to play.

Jeff
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 12:50 AM   #22
tlyiii
Maiden
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 3
Nice Call Bill V!
Attached Images
 
tlyiii is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 01:20 AM   #23
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
FTL

Bill is very kind but as I do hit from time to time I am really
not that good with the program. Another thing I do is not trust
the readouts when a longshot appears on top.

I find that the sort screen gets the most winners for me so I
go to that which would have led me to the 3 and 5.I really don't
know how to correlate the other readouts with it.

I do change the variegate as it says in the manual if the top MUV
horse is not the energizer.

Jeff
Ok, let me start with your comment about not trusting the program when there is a longshot “ON TOP”. In the version of ENERGY I have there is no BL/BL, LS (line score), VDC or any other number that would give any indication that the lowest or highest number in any group is the so called “best horse” or “ON TOP”….AND….bets are NOT based solely on odds. In other words, no waggercapping. That is not to say that odds do not play a part, they do. As an example, suppose you get your two horses and one is even money and the other is 2/1, obviously you have no bet. The race would be a pass.
You said that on the sort screen I posted you were led to the #3 and #5. The “sort screen” is always presented in the same way, by ranking of “EP”. This does NOT mean the program is telling you the top two horses are the best, because it is not saying that at all. As an example,. Those two horses are the “top two” in the sort, but since the sort is based on “EP” those two horses are the two best “EARLY” horses. If you look right above the column headings on the sort screen you will see the word “SUSTAINED”, which I circled in red. On the screen shot just above the sort screen you will see the “VARIEGATE” which says “SUSTAINED”, which I circled in red. These two things are telling you that the program has determined, based on the contenders and pacelines entered, that the winner of this race should run “SUSTAINED”. Obviously, the #3 horse can longer be considered. Therefore, the column on the sort screen you should be looking at is the column “SP” (sustained pace). Now, the top two rated “SP” horses are #5 and #4, however number 5 is also the #2 “EP” horse, so is the horse early or sustained? So at this point let’s consider the 3rd ranked “SP” horse, #7. SUSTAINED, to me means late, so let’s look at the column “LX” which is late energy. In that column the top two horses are #7 and #5. Now look at the last screen “EXDC MATCH UP”. On the right hand side is the “LATE EXDC”. On this screen shot you will see #7 is ranked best on “LATE EXDC”. Look at all the things I circled in red on that screen. There is no way to not have the #7 horse as one of your two horses to bet. By the way, even though it was the longest shot on the board!

The reason I always liked the version of the ENERGY program that I have is because I think it was the best attempt I have ever seen at actually handicapping a race! Of course, you better have only true contenders and good pacelines. Entering every horse in the race will only lead to disaster. Likewise, bad contenders and bad pacelines will also lead to disaster.

Now here are some of my personal opinions.
You say you don’t trust when your ENERGY program picks a longshot ON TOP. The first thing is, there is NOT an "ON TOP".
I joined this site 9 years ago and in all that time my view on contender and paceline selecting has not changed one bit. It has CONSISTENTLY been the same.
The majority of races that I have posted have been races OTHER PEOPLE have chosen, not me, just like this race. The point is, I didn’t want to be accused of cherry picking races so they fall into my way of thinking.
Change the VARIEGATE? I don’t have experience at doing that. Changing the variegate is changing the way the program looks at the race. Perhaps it is the contenders and/or pacelines that need to be changed.
I mentioned CONSISTENCY. Everyone has to choose a contender and paceline selection method and stick with it….for a long time. If you have a good method, you will get good results. If you choose a bad a method, you won’t.
From what I have observed, people have a contender and paceline selection method that changes with every race they look at. There is NO CONSISTENCY.
As you can see from the first screen shot I posted showing the first copyright date as 1987, 30 years later the program can still pick winners at good prices. And keep in mind, in those days the use of the original guidelines in the paceline manual were in use! If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!!

P.S. - In your last post you said many times the winner is in the top 3 on your sort screen. That made me smile. Now that you understand that the sort screen is presented in order of EARLY horses, it is no surprise to me that many of your winners come from the top three in that category.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 03:04 PM   #24
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 8,882
Shoe

Hi Jeff

FTL's demo is right on. The only thing he might not know is ( maybe he does?)
the sort is based on the Muv and 3 part varius readout

It is not actually sorted by EP as in Early Pace. Early EXDC which is what the bar graph A is showing is. Bar graph B or Paragon B is not Sustained as in SP
Late EXDC is if the race favors other than normal as in late biased

In FTL's example, Energy has called the race variegated Sustained
Therefore the Paragon B bar graphs are preferred for win bets

FTL brings up another point This program is 30+ years old,
At the time this program was "the" program of the methodology,
The emphasis was on winning 66% of your bets from your top 2 selections
Win Percentage was the goal not so much ROI,

You do send me many good reports But you also are an exacta bettor
It was not until Doc's next program KGEN , and then Entropy, that getting the place horse for exacta's was added to the algorithms.

For Exactas with your copy of Energy I suggest you use the "other"
paragon or better yet the 3 0.00 horses on the varius.


Here is how doing exactly what FTL did in his race will get you the winner of race 10 from parx yesterday, which I posted early in the day a few post back .

Here are my lines

Name:  basic.JPG
Views: 265
Size:  122.1 KB


The race is variegated Early So my top two on Paragon A shows the 1 3 and 4

Name:  Ener.JPG
Views: 267
Size:  134.3 KB

But you say you will change the variegate based on the o.oo MUV horse
or the energizer ( same thing)
Let's do that, can the 1 go wire to wire? I say no based on its line score and it's paceline so yes you could change the variegate.

Name:  Top 2 Paragon B.JPG
Views: 274
Size:  134.3 KB

Now the variegated is sustained
and who are the top two on the B Paragon
3 and 4

I think if you follow the Paragons A or B determined by the variegate
your win percentage will go way up
If you use the 3 0.00 horses on the Varius you will catch some nice exactas

It did not work for me here because the 8 placed
(I had it to win along with the 3 )

Good Skill
Bill
Attached Images
 

Last edited by Bill V.; 09-05-2017 at 03:07 PM.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 03:09 PM   #25
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 8,882
Thanks

Quote:
Originally Posted by tlyiii View Post
Nice Call Bill V!
Thank you The 3 won but paid 2/1 I was hoping for the 8 but I will take the win

Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 09:56 PM   #26
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,587
FTL and Bill,

Thanks you both for taking the time to help me, I very much appreciate
it.


FTL , you really made some great points and it has helped me understand
the program better, I am using the same program you are.

I went back on a race I did yesterday and sort had the winner 3rd but
when I looked at the early and late exdc it was ranked 2nd and I missed
a 13.00 winner.

Your dead on to about being consistent in your work.


Bill, Your right about playing exactas have not been doing well with them and thanks
for the example.

Im sure I will have more questions

Jeff
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 10:11 PM   #27
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,587
Why is the late match up exdc different from late exdc, the top 3 horses
are 3,5,7but when you look above at late exdc comes up 7,5,4.
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2017, 03:14 AM   #28
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
FTL and Bill,

Thanks you both for taking the time to help me, I very much appreciate
it.


FTL , you really made some great points and it has helped me understand
the program better, I am using the same program you are.

I went back on a race I did yesterday and sort had the winner 3rd but
when I looked at the early and late exdc it was ranked 2nd and I missed
a 13.00 winner.

Your dead on to about being consistent in your work.


Bill, Your right about playing exactas have not been doing well with them and thanks
for the example.

Im sure I will have more questions

Jeff
The first thing is to not be confused. As an example, I told you the horses on the sort screen were ordered by EP (rank). Bill corrected that by saying they were really ordered by MUV. Ok,I say 'to-MAY-toe', Bill says 'to-MAH-toe'. The screen comes up in order of EP rank or in order of MUV. It all comes down to the same thing with one exception. You can change the MUV, but that doesn't change the EP rank. Look at the race Bill posted and look at his original sort screen. Then go to the sort screen where he changed the variegate. He now has two horses with a 0.00 MUV, but the EP rank has not changed. I just find it easier and less confusing by simply using the EP rank.

As far as the $13 winner you missed is concerned, perhaps there is a reason for missing it and perrhaps there isn't. Without seeing the screen shots I can't tell.

One thing I cannot over emphasize is, you cannot look at the sort screen like that is the order that the program is indicating the best horse is at the top and the worst horse is at the bottom. THAT IS NOT HOW IT WORKS! Just as an example, perhaps the horse in your race, that was 3rd on the sort screen, was actually THE BEST HORSE. I have no way of knowing.

I'm sorry, but you have got to get the idea of "TOP HORSES" out of you head. That is only going to mess you up.
I will say again, the sort screen is based on EP rank, nothing more and nothing less. If you are more comfortable with Bill's view, then look at the sort screen as nothing more than the horses being sorted on MUV. IT IS NOT THE PROGRAMS CHOICE OF HORSES TO BET. The ONLY exception is where the program determines the race will run EARLY. THEN and ONLY THEN is the program telling you the first two horses in the sort are the horses to play. Why? Because the program determined the race will run EARLY and the first two horses in the sort are the two EARLY horses.

Now to your question about the race where I posted screen shots.
You asked, "Why is the late match up exdc different from late exdc, the top 3 horses
are 3,5,7but when you look above at late exdc comes up 7,5,4
.”
FIRST, the “TOP 3 HORSES” are nothing more than the very same top 3 horses found on the sort screen. You will also notice the bottom 2 horses are the very same bottom 2 horses on the sort screen and in the very same order. You’ll also notice the horses are in the very same order on the left side of the screen as they are on the right side of the screen and in the very same order as they are on the sort screen.

Now, since we are looking for “LATE” energy, then we are looking at the right side of the screen, not the left side which is “EARLY” energy.
You will also notice the column headings “1st 2nd 3rd”. This is equivalent to 1st,2nd and 3rd fractions.
Notice the number next to the #7 horse under “3rd”. It is “0.00” that means this horse has the best 3rd fraction. Since we are looking for “LATE” energy, the #7 is the best horse and therefore shows above as the first horse in the graph.
Now just so you get a better understanding, the #5 is the second horse in the above graph. Why? Go back and look at the numbers under the column heading “3rd”. The second lowest number is 1.22 next to the #5 horse.
Now look at the third lowest number under the column heading “3rd”. You will see the number 1.88 and that number is next to the #4 horse who is the third horse on the above graph.

So the best horse in this race is the third horse on the sort screen.

I hope all or any of this has helped you.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2017, 08:37 AM   #29
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 8,882
Thanks FTL

Ironically after all these years growing up loving Italian food, I think I have
developed an allergy to tomatoes

Hi Jeff

You should check this out with some races you have run with energy

First, off The sort screen is listed by the EP rankings
The horses listed from top to bottom are listed by the EP rank
Doc and Jim could have listed the contenders by any of the 6 components
of the line score including the MUV It makes sense to list by EP since
The match up is who s going to the lead? and then who can or can't catch it?


RDSS users can change how the race is sorted
but we can't in Energy

Here is an example



Here is a DMR race sorted by the RX rating

Name:  RX.JPG
Views: 241
Size:  86.1 KB

Here is the same race sorted by Total Energy

Name:  better TE.JPG
Views: 238
Size:  88.5 KB

The way the race is listed is not to be confused with who is the top ranked

Next post I will show how the program is rating the this race

Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2017, 08:59 AM   #30
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 8,882
blue prints

Hi Jeff

How you see the sort is not actually best top to bottom
Your contenders will be listed top to bottom based on the EP ranking

The energy program you and FTL are using does not tally up the line score
of the 6 components EP PR HE SP LX FX
If you were to add these 6 factors ranking together, The 3 lowest total score horses are your Paragon A horses More weight is given to the EP and MUV
ratings, This is why in this example the is ranked first over the
even though the has an advantage 12 to 13.

Name:  Paragon A.jpg
Views: 237
Size:  55.1 KB


Paragon B is to be used as the "other" look or when the Variegate
says Presser or Sustained

Paragon B is the 3 best SP and LX factor rated horses

Name:  Parago B.jpg
Views: 239
Size:  49.1 KB

Now to the Early and Late EXDC Match Up bar graphs

The Early EXDC Match Up Bar graph shows the 3 lowest total of your contenders
first two fractions added together.


The Late EXDC Match Up bar graphs show the top 3 (low is best)
totals of the 2nd and 3rd fractions weighted by the 3rd fraction
this is why the 12 is rated better than the 5
The race is weighted Other than early The 5 drops off quickly in the 3rd fraction even though its total score is lower than the 12
Energy rates the 12 better.


For Exacta bettors, Doc's instructions are to box the 3 0.00 exdc horses
There are no 0.00 horses in this race on the Early EXDC side but
There is on the late EXDC Match up They are 3 7 and 2 No
trifecta for this race. The 2 did not fire

Name:  EXDC match up.jpg
Views: 240
Size:  222.4 KB


Result was 3 7 12

Last edited by Bill V.; 09-06-2017 at 09:11 AM.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Paceline Selection - some observation Jeebs Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 16 04-04-2017 05:19 PM
Question on Paceline Selection - DMR0828 R2 kpmats10 Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 5 09-09-2016 09:29 AM
Paceline Selection Ted Craven RDSS 4 01-27-2011 02:41 PM
Paceline Selection Strategies Ted Craven RDSS 5 09-30-2010 02:48 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:01 PM.