I Am So Frustrated.Can You Guide Me??? - Pace and Cap

Cincyhorseplayer · 12-13-2008, 07:26 AM

What I know about the Sartin Methodology comes from Brohamer's book alone and that has served me well.What I have done until recently has been done via pen.paper,and calculator.

After defecting from the Ohio circuit because of ADW issues,I'm currently adopting Fair Grounds and Tampa Bay Downs as my winter tracks because I know I do better in temperate weather.

But I have no knowledge of anything on these tracks.I just ordered pars from Horsestreet so they'll be along soon and I hate to use anybody else's numbers that I don't know their methodology or what they are trying to key in on,so I'm swamped in a mire of new tracks where I have no idea what the 10,000 par is,nor the DRF par variant,nor the track to track differentials,and how to deal with Route to Sprint and vice versa comparisons.And the basic Sartin numbers I use I put into an Excel spreadsheet,so that's the extent of my technology.

I figured this was the place to come.Here I am with my nose hanging open,you know my plight!How and where do I resolve this???

For any incoming suggestions I thank you.(I know and am leaning towards some computer help because some tasks are daunting).

Rod

Charlie D · 12-13-2008, 09:38 AM

See Bill V post Cincy

http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4860

contact Bill V regarding access to the material, contact Ted Craven regarding downloading RDSS

All the best

Bill V. · 12-13-2008, 10:08 AM

Hello Rod
welcome to Pace and Cap

You have a little bit of an idea about the Saritn Methodology.
Firstly what you are refering to is very early methodology stuff
Its fine to continue and to hone your skills
The two tracks you will be working Tampa and FG are good tracks
Please you must do what you feel will be best for you.
You are going to get many different bits of Sartin Methodology
guidelines and examples here. Some people are using
what you mention. Many are matching using raw data.
and some are using the advanced or Modern Sartin methodolgy.
Either 100% as is in the Follow Ups or just using there own
ideas based on what the chaos calculations are showing.
The main thing about the Sartin Methodology is you have been given many tools and you will be instructed in all the reading materials.
Not how they win but The Sartin methodology is now and was then taught by regular people
Who at some point in there carrers said its not working the
mainstraem way. I will learn the methodology, They did and they became winners.
The key is to always remember You Can Win

Good Skill
Bill

Tim Y · 12-13-2008, 11:26 AM

Don't mess with averaged PARS as we only consider the interaction of the participants in THAT race today not some average.

It has always been much easier for a COMPLETE novice to understand the methodology for that do not have to rid their minds of horsie player garbage about class shifts, trainers, jockeys, workouts......all that irrelevant material.

Bill V. · 12-13-2008, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Don't mess with averaged PARS as we only consider the interaction of the participants in THAT race today not some average.

It has always been much easier for a COMPLETE novice to understand the methodology for that do not have to rid their minds of horsie player garbage about class shifts, trainers, jockeys, workouts......all that irrelevant material.

Doc speaks about Class

Its the horse that shows its class
Performance equals Class Class equals Performance
In the Sartin Methodology Class is Total Energy

Doc Speaks

Charlie D · 12-13-2008, 05:33 PM

This is from Paceline Manual

See #5

tom · 12-13-2008, 05:50 PM

Cincy...the HSH pars are very good. In spite of the attack on pars here, TM uses pars to get their variants and track to track adjustments, so denying them while using them is kind of nuts. So you using them if not using a program that adjusts is very valid. I used them for a long time with good results.

I guess you are using velocity ratings, ala Pace Makes the Race?

Modifying pace lines before you do velocity ratings works very well if you keep profiles and models ( another Doc tool!).

Jonathan Steele · 12-13-2008, 08:21 PM

"After defecting from the Ohio circuit because of ADW issues,"

ADW? What's that? Btw, the Ohio circuit is one of my main circuits. I have no problem there.

Regards,

Jon

Cincyhorseplayer · 12-13-2008, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tom

Cincy...the HSH pars are very good. In spite of the attack on pars here, TM uses pars to get their variants and track to track adjustments, so denying them while using them is kind of nuts. So you using them if not using a program that adjusts is very valid. I used them for a long time with good results.

I guess you are using velocity ratings, ala Pace Makes the Race?

Modifying pace lines before you do velocity ratings works very well if you keep profiles and models ( another Doc tool!).

Tom I like that you are picking my brain back.

What I'm contemplating is using the DRF variant and the 10,000 par to gauge ability,nothing more.But without it one is handicapped.

I tell you between the Beyer numbers,DRF variants,Quirin Numbers,and numerous other numbers out there.Trying to quantify things into a believable truth is a task that is more likely to make your head explode before resolve sets in.But there has to be an answer and if it's not out there I want to be a part of finding it.It exists.I have had success with the races.I just want to isolate the winning mentality with every factor.I am totally intrigued by what the energy distribution numbers bear out with the synthetic tracks.I've been wondering why California horseplayers have been so quiet since that advent.

The good thing is I read tracks well and I can walk into a site,pick up a form and "Lock in" after a few races.But I would really like to have a better grip on the races reality.I'm reading Jim Quinn's Handicapper's Stakes Festival and he has great points in keeping up with the stakes population.What I want to know is how to go from A to B.How to quantify performances with the Quirin figs.I have barely a clue.I thought I'd put it out there because that gap seems tremendous.What is the state of the methodology???

alydar_ David · 12-13-2008, 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan Steele

"After defecting from the Ohio circuit because of ADW issues,"

ADW? What's that? Btw, the Ohio circuit is one of my main circuits. I have no problem there.

Regards,

Jon

ADW = Advance Deposit Wagering = i.e., betting through an online account

12-13-2008, 07:26 AM	#1
Cincyhorseplayer AlwNW3X Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 45	I Am So Frustrated.Can You Guide Me??? What I know about the Sartin Methodology comes from Brohamer's book alone and that has served me well.What I have done until recently has been done via pen.paper,and calculator. After defecting from the Ohio circuit because of ADW issues,I'm currently adopting Fair Grounds and Tampa Bay Downs as my winter tracks because I know I do better in temperate weather. But I have no knowledge of anything on these tracks.I just ordered pars from Horsestreet so they'll be along soon and I hate to use anybody else's numbers that I don't know their methodology or what they are trying to key in on,so I'm swamped in a mire of new tracks where I have no idea what the 10,000 par is,nor the DRF par variant,nor the track to track differentials,and how to deal with Route to Sprint and vice versa comparisons.And the basic Sartin numbers I use I put into an Excel spreadsheet,so that's the extent of my technology. I figured this was the place to come.Here I am with my nose hanging open,you know my plight!How and where do I resolve this??? For any incoming suggestions I thank you.(I know and am leaning towards some computer help because some tasks are daunting). Rod

12-13-2008, 09:38 AM	#2
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	See Bill V post Cincy http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4860 contact Bill V regarding access to the material, contact Ted Craven regarding downloading RDSS All the best Last edited by Charlie D; 12-13-2008 at 09:50 AM.

12-13-2008, 10:08 AM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	The Modern Sartin Methodology Hello Rod welcome to Pace and Cap You have a little bit of an idea about the Saritn Methodology. Firstly what you are refering to is very early methodology stuff Its fine to continue and to hone your skills The two tracks you will be working Tampa and FG are good tracks Please you must do what you feel will be best for you. You are going to get many different bits of Sartin Methodology guidelines and examples here. Some people are using what you mention. Many are matching using raw data. and some are using the advanced or Modern Sartin methodolgy. Either 100% as is in the Follow Ups or just using there own ideas based on what the chaos calculations are showing. The main thing about the Sartin Methodology is you have been given many tools and you will be instructed in all the reading materials. Not how they win but The Sartin methodology is now and was then taught by regular people Who at some point in there carrers said its not working the mainstraem way. I will learn the methodology, They did and they became winners. The key is to always remember You Can Win Good Skill Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 12-13-2008 at 10:13 AM.

12-13-2008, 11:26 AM	#4
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Don't mess with averaged PARS as we only consider the interaction of the participants in THAT race today not some average. It has always been much easier for a COMPLETE novice to understand the methodology for that do not have to rid their minds of horsie player garbage about class shifts, trainers, jockeys, workouts......all that irrelevant material. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 12-13-2008 at 11:28 AM.

12-13-2008, 05:33 PM	#6
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	This is from Paceline Manual See #5 Attached Images

12-13-2008, 05:50 PM	#7
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	Cincy...the HSH pars are very good. In spite of the attack on pars here, TM uses pars to get their variants and track to track adjustments, so denying them while using them is kind of nuts. So you using them if not using a program that adjusts is very valid. I used them for a long time with good results. I guess you are using velocity ratings, ala Pace Makes the Race? Modifying pace lines before you do velocity ratings works very well if you keep profiles and models ( another Doc tool!).

12-13-2008, 08:21 PM	#8
Jonathan Steele Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: New Jersey, USA Posts: 471	"After defecting from the Ohio circuit because of ADW issues," ADW? What's that? Btw, the Ohio circuit is one of my main circuits. I have no problem there. Regards, Jon __________________ "Free your mind and the profits will follow."