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Welcome to the Sartin Methodology New members: introduce yourselves! Ask about how to get started, get pointers in the right direction.

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Old 03-14-2017, 03:35 PM   #1
glarman
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New Guy to the board & methodology.

Hello everyone, my name is Gerald and for the time being, I'm dedicated to learning the modern Sartin Methodology.

According to a few posts below, Bill V. stated that beginners should start with the Yellow Manual, which is what I've done. I've read about a quarter and skimmed through the rest just to gain some familiarity. Now I'm starting from the beginning again, and can't help but have some questions already, which I hope some of the more advanced users can help with.

I'm going to use this thread sort of as a journal of my learning process; hopefully it will end up aiding other newcomers as well.

My first question regarding the Yellow Manual pertains to the section on using the "Median Variant Adjustment." It states that for most users, it is the only adjustment they will ever need.

Now is this Median Variant the same as what's currently under the configure tab in RDSS? Do I still have to study all of the sections in the manual on adjusting for surface, distance, class etc.? Or does the section on the Median Variant resolve all these issues?

I hope this isn't too much of a rookie question, and that I'm not getting ahead of myself.

Any advice/response is greatly appreciated. Thanks.
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Old 03-14-2017, 09:35 PM   #2
Bill V.
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Hi Gerald

Welcome to Pace and Cap

Gerald I will be honest with you, I don't know anything about
"Median Variant Adjustments." I know its right out of the Yellow Manual
But I never paid much attention to any of the readouts. I came into the methodology in 1997, At that point The methodology was all about downloading and rating pacelines that were adjusted to a common track, a fictional track called Sartin Downs,

I never was very smart at how the readouts were structured.
I was as new as anybody on this site, I knew nothing about handicapping
or betting,

There are a few really smart members here, guys like Ted, Rmath Tim (Lt1)
Mark, Jeebs and especially Richie P, Mitch, and FTL .
Mitch is really a nice man, he explains things so calmly, He got me up tp speed on deceleration after just 2 messages,

Hopefully somebody can help you with median variants

The reason I suggest beginners read the yellow manual ?
I want people to focus on ,
The Match Up
Conditions
Class and APV
Finding the true contenders
Finding and using the correct pace line (s)
Betting for value


I learned and use these lessons/ I use them in my work today.
I ignore most of the readout examples, because they are done with very basic early velocity programs.
RDSS has these readouts in various forms and they are adjusted to a more modern method than using the daily racing forms variants

Here is what I treasure, These are lessons that made me a very good user of the methodology

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Valuable lessons for today's racing
I learned from the Yellow Manual.

The Match Up, - Identifying running styles
Finding the Early , Early pressers, pressers and sustained horses in each race finding the pace of race, and finding who can run competivly against that pace of race.

Form cycle analysis + (+) and 0
Doing my notations for plus , plus within a zero and zero pace-lines

Learned the value of APV- average purse value and CR. class ratings
Doc also gives a formula tho help with how to read the conditions of the race
This is very important, We must read the conditions of the race.

The next two things are the most important things to learn,

Contenders and Pace lines

First contenders,
Who belongs in the race ? How will this horse run in today's race?
You must learn some general class rankings . The best way to learn this is to read the conditions of every race you look at, Then using the result charts lok up who won the race and check its past performances. You will soon learn how to see the ability
of each horse relative to the conditions of each race,

Please also read in handicapping 101 forum anything by FTL he is an excellent handicapper and teacher of the value of reading the conditions of each race and finding true contenders.


Once you know who are true contenders, You can select a appropriate pace line.

Pace lines,
The key to your success, Which Race(s) To Use
I suggest you concentrate on pace lines , starting with page 14
You will learn how to evaluate what the pace of race each horse does well against and what pace of race it can not win if asked to face.
You will learn so much about a horse from doing your + (+)and O notations .

Betting
Most of what you will read about in the yellow manual with focus on betting
2 horses to win and betting your top 2 selections,
Also betting place and show if the odds on your 3rd rated horse was over 9/2 and 6/1

This is a bit out dated. Back then the focus was to win 66% of your bets no matter what odds,
Today the thing is ROI and using all the available pools
Today we focus on our top 3 or 4 ranked horses and bet for value.

These topics are what I feel helped me become the successful user of the Methodology
It does not matter what program I use - I do well with them all , because always focus on them .

Good Skill
Bill V.
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Old 03-15-2017, 07:36 AM   #3
gptx
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Great information and guidance Bill, Thank you!
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Old 03-15-2017, 09:52 AM   #4
Mitch44
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Great information Bill.

To the best of my knowledge as programs evolved they included much more than the meridian variant. I used Synergism 2 and it used a different concept to adjust races which included a more efficient variant adjustment and a couple of other adjustment ,plus a whole different concept. The concept was to find an unknown point (such as a variant) from two known points. In the military this has been used in map reading to determine one's location or unknown point for years, which I learned and used in the military. In Synergism they used 3 points. The whole concept would take a very lengthy discussion as it also included the match-up to make these adjustment for adjusting these 3 points.

That concept has probably been tweaked as later programs evolved to the point that its a little different but not far from concept. Actually only Ted could probably answer that question actually and specifically. Here's the main point forget about the Meridian Varient, track to track adjustment, different distance adjustments etc. because all adjustments are accounted for by RDSS which encompasses all adjustments BASED ON THE PACE LINES YOU SELECT and consist of the latest and tested concept that "Doc" and others were able to conceive.

As Bill said above contender selection and pace lines selection are main ingredients to this overall recipe. Don't get hung up on what a formula is or how something specifically works because you won't be able to get from point A to point B. No one has to be a mechanic in order to drive a car. Just know all the adjustments in RDSS are the latest concept, have been proved through rigorous testing to be effective and has stood the test of time. See you along the highway.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-15-2017 at 10:09 AM.
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Old 03-15-2017, 11:11 AM   #5
Lt1
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Well put Bill & Mitch. I'm with you in that I'm not interested in how something works only that it does work and allows me to win races. Of course as both Bill and you state proper contender and paceline selection is the whole ballgame.
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Old 03-15-2017, 11:15 AM   #6
gandalf380
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nice post Bill V

"Once you know who are true contenders, You can select a appropriate pace line."

This one line jumped out at me and reminded that Doc used to say he could not handicap without a racing form and why one should always try to determine a possible pace of race. Once you throw out the noncentenders, you can get down to picking an appropriate pace line. I believe that too many handicappers do that in reverse.
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Old 03-15-2017, 07:30 PM   #7
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gandalf380 View Post
Doc used to say he could not handicap without a racing form and why one should always try to determine a possible pace of race. Once you throw out the noncentenders, you can get down to picking an appropriate pace line. I believe that too many handicappers do that in reverse.
I would be guilty as charged. The way I handicap, I focus on 1) fulcrum if there is one, 2) tandem races and 3) the top 1-2 Class Rating horses. If/when I select a paceline from one of those horses, I will use their PoH Total Energy as a fulcrum at that point, giving myself a general idea of matchup. Then I'll go horse by horse and identify +, 0 and plus/zero performances as well as look at the whole horse (surface/distance record, run style, TE, TPR sticks, etc) to get an idea. Even if their + or plus/zero race has a lower TE, I will still select the line so not to make a premature elimination. I will do this for every horse until every horse either has or doesn't have a line. Those with lines move to the Energy screen where I narrow down to generally 4-5 runners. Only then will I go to other screens to whittle things down to the betting possibilities. The key for me is being able to either "buy" or not take certain lines at face value. Tom Brohamer once warned to avoid the "giraffe" race that sticks out when it doesn't jive with reality. It could be a flukey track variant, track condition or other factors. Once you use a line that weighs a horse too generously, you risk pushing other runners out of contention. I have successfully chucked chalks in this fashion.

Bottom line, do what is best for you! Best of luck!
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Old 03-15-2017, 08:02 PM   #8
shoeless
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You should take Bill's post and put it under it's own topic as advice
for beginners, very nicely done.
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Old 03-16-2017, 05:41 AM   #9
glarman
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Thanks Bill & All

That was an outstanding response Bill, much more than I could have asked for. It serves as kind of a "course outline" or "syllabus" as to what to look for in the Yellow Manual. I'm currently up to part 3, and just printed off the "Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy Exertion," as I'll be going through that next. Just a brief look at it brings up what seems to be some of the more current vocabulary I hear you guys using, such as "Total Energy," etc.

My first attempt at handicapping was the Breeder's Cup 2016, where I did well. I was using Brad Frees' "Handicapping 101" book, which I'd read through and studied several times prior to placing my first wager. But overall I'm breaking even, would like to become a much better and more profitable handicapper, and it seems to me that a thorough understanding of pace just might be the way to open that door for me. I came across the Sartin Methodology by reading a chapter that was written by Tom Brohamer in a book called "Longshots." It's my hope that by adding a large pace component to my style of play I'll develop a much deeper understanding of what I'm doing and why. I think the fact you've been around and applying the method since 1997 serves as a testimony to its validity. Thanks again.
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Old 03-16-2017, 04:42 PM   #10
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Awesome post Bill.

Great reminder of the 0, + & (+).

Needed that.
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